India never beat China since Poor Governance and Poor work ethic
Frank Jan 23 2015, inWaterloo, On. Ca.
Can India Overtake China? on Foreign Policy, in which he indicates that India would eventually overtake China.
The writers of the two articles have both given India optimistic hopeful prospects with a rational andevidence-based analysis. However, it seems to have ignored the key point that will badly drag the development of the econmy - the Poor Governance of India and Poor Work Ethic of most Indians.
Nov. 10, 2013, the article India roils in rhetoric, China mulls second wave of gaige kaifang said with that "This weekend, as India’s political class roils in rhetoric at political rallies, 376 members of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee closeted in a hotel in Beijing will mull the next wave of gaige kaifang（Reform and opening up）or very simply reforms. President Xi Jingping articulated the quest rather unambiguously when he took charge as the need to 'push forward the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and strive to achieve the Chinese dream of great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation'. "
October 9, 2013, the article Wal-Mart Drops Ambitious Expansion Plan for India said with that: "In 2007, Wal-Mart announced with great fanfare that along with Bharti, it planned to open “hundreds” of stores, the kind of ambitious proposition that many international companies hatched early in the century as hopes blossomed that India would soon join China as an emerging economic colossus. But many of those same companies have quietly shelved their expansion plans after complex market conditions — spotty electricity, poor roads and government ineptitude — frustrated hopes of rapid profits."
"Many foreign companies have found India’s endemic corruption difficult to keep out of their operations. Since American law requires top executives to ensure that their international operations remain free of corruption, executives in the United States have taken an increasingly dim view of doing business in India, with its low profits and constant legal worries."
Jan 17 2014, in tha article The On
As the second large populous country with a democratic government, people placed this country a great hope. However, their Democracy is in the Indian way - the government is corrupt and incompetent, the numerous people are addict in the superstitious and Fatalism with hands clasping together to pray for the happy life of next time instead of hard working, and the rape incidents continue to occur, etc.. It is just as that of advocateing by themselves, India is Inconceivable.
Oct. 09, 2013, <India: Poor in Electricity, Roads & Governance pushed Wal-Mart out>.
Aug. 03, 2012, <In India, as much as 40% of electricity is not paid for, the bulk of it is stolen>.
Jul. 31, 2012, <India blackouts affect half the country - CBC News>
Aug.13, 2013, <Jim Rogers: Why I'm shorting India>.
Great many facts have shown that this country seems still trekking in the mire of civilizing mixing withChaos. It is difficult to predict whether it will be a proper energy market.
Sept. 24, 2013, the Hindustan Times reproted that<India approves policy for shale gas and oil exploration>: "India, the world's fourth-largest consumer of energy, could be sitting on as much as 96 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of recoverable shale gas reserves, equivalent to about 26 years of the country's gas demand, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
January 19, 2013, in the article India Is Losing the Race, Steven Rattner who said with that:
As recently as 2006, when I first visited India and China, the economic race was on, with heavy bets being placed on which one would win the developing world sweepstakes.
Many Westerners fervently hoped that a democratic country would triumph economically over an autocratic regime.
Now the contest is emphatically over. China has lunged into the 21st century, while India is still lurching toward it.
That’s evident not just in columns of dry statistics but in the rhythm and sensibility of each country. While China often seems to eradicate its past as it single-mindedly constructs its future, India nibbles more judiciously at its complex history.
Visits to crowded Indian urban centers unleash sensory assaults: colorful dress and lilting chatter provide a backdrop to every manner of commerce, from small shops to peddlers to beggars. That makes for engaging tourism, but not the fastest economic development. In contrast to China’s full-throated, monochromatic embrace of large-scale manufacturing, India more closely resembles a nation of shopkeepers.
To be sure, India has achieved enviable success in business services, like the glistening call centers in Bangalore and elsewhere. But in the global jousting for manufacturing jobs, India does not get its share.
Now, after years of rocketing growth, China’s gross domestic product per capita of $9,146 is more than twice India’s. And its economy grew by 7.7 percent in 2012, while India expanded at a (hardly shabby) 5.3 percent rate.
Ashis Nandy
In the spring of 2014, Ashis Nandy delivered the fourth OP Jindal Distinguished Lecture series on Partition. The series, organized by the Brown-India Initiative, was endowed in perpetuity by Sajjan and Sangita Jindal to promote a serious discussion of politics, economics, social and cultural change in modern India.
Ashis Nandy on Partition Violence
Lecture I: FORGETTING THE UNFORGETTABLE: MEMORIES OF KILLING
Wednesday, March 12th, 5:30-7:00 p.m.
Commentator: Vazira Zamindar, Associate Professor of History
Pembroke Hall, Room 305 | 172 Meeting Street
VIDEO ARCHIVE
Lecture II: BEYOND TRAUMA: SILENCE, EXORCISM AND THE DOOMED JOURNEY TO A LOST SELF
Friday, March 14th, 2:00-4:00 p.m.
Commentator: Omer Bartov, John P. Birkelund Distinguished Professor of European History and Professor of History and German Studies
Joukowsky Forum, Watson Institute | 111 Thayer Street
VIDEO ARCHIVE
Dr. Nandy, a political psychologist and social theorist called the country’s “most formidable and controversial intellectual, its most arresting thinker,” and recently listed as among the world’s ‘top 100 public intellectuals’ by Foreign Policy magazine, is a major political and cultural critic in contemporary India.
Ashis Nandy’s work focuses on both the socially creative and destructive potential of human beings, and sources itself primarily in Indian history and contemporary trends as well as seeking to create academic linkages between the Indian subcontinent and other countries of the Global South. He has worked as an activist, coauthoring human rights reports and serving on commissions investigating riots, violence against women, electoral corruption, and other abuses. He has worked as an academic, serving as Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, the World Futures Studies Federation, the International Network for Cultural Alternatives to Development, and at the University of Edinburgh, of Hull, and of Trier (as the Center of European Studies’ first UNESCO Chair) among others. Nandy served as director of the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) between 1992 and 1997, and has remained closely associated with the center.
On
In 2007, Ashis Nandy received the Fukuoka Asian Culture Prize.
Read more about Dr. Nandy and follow the links to some of his writings on this page by his peer Vinay Lal.
To Beat China, Be China
For years, economists have argued that the Indian economy should grow faster than China’s. Is it finally on track to do so?
- By Rupa Subramanya
- Rupa Subramanya is a Mumbai-based economist and co-author of Indianomix: Making Sense of Modern India. Follow her on Twitter: @rupasubramanya.
In 2003, MIT’s Yasheng Huang and Tarun Khanna of Harvard Business School argued in Foreign Policy thatIndia would eventually overtake China. It was a case of fundamentals: Driven by fickle and unreliable foreign investment and technology, the Chinese economy would peter out while India, buoyed by more reliable drivers such as domestic savings and entrepreneurship, would on
Outlandish or not, many experts were sympathetic to the notion that democratic India ought to do better than authoritarian China. But China stubbornly refuses to undergo the existential political crisis that many Western observers have predicted for decades. And India’s democracy, especially during Manmohan Singh’s left-of-center government, failed to accomplish much in the way of structural economic reform and instead became a case study in policy paralysis.
Yet here we are in the first weeks of 2015: China finally seems to be cooling off, and India may, at long last, be warming up. Could Huang and Khanna’s theory be ready to bear fruit?
According to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, India’s real GDP growth will reach 6.2 percent this year, 6.8 percent next year, and 7 percent in 2017, just overtaking China, whose growth is expected to slow to 6.9 percent. And the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook predicts that in 2016, India’s 6.6 percent growth rate will overtake China’s 6.3 percent. If these forecasts hold true, India will become the world’s fastest-growing large economy for the first time in living memory. The World Bank and the IMF say these improved growth projections are due, at least in part, to the Narendra Modi government’s renewed vigor for economic reform.
But let’s keep things in perspective. When Huang and Khanna made their original bold prediction, the Chinese economy was experiencing blistering double-digit growth.
India surpassing China in the future has as much to do with its economy as it does with New Delhi’s renewed growth impetus.
Also, let’s recall some basic economics. Textbook growth models predict that economies beginning from a lower base will grow more rapidly than their richer counterparts, all else being equal, due to what are known as diminishing marginal returns. India’s economy is still a fraction the size of China’s — so in theory, excluding other imp
In fact, to beat China, India must become more like China — in a sense, the opposite of what Huang and Khanna originally argued. As it happens, this is indeed what the Modi government is trying to do, with its emphasis on building top-notch infrastructure and promoting large, labor-intensive manufacturing projects, both for export and for the domestic market — a model that will require foreign investment and technology, key drivers of China’s success.
The government’s initiative to create 100 new “smart cities” — aimed at attracting large-scale, foreign investment-led growth — fits this paradigm perfectly. So does the government’s larger commitment to revamping the country’s creaky roads, bridges, highways, and power plants. If India can do all this while leveraging its demographic advantage — a youthful population whose median age of 25 bests China’s aging population — it has a legitimate shot at beating Beijing at its own game.
If India overtakes China, it will most likely be because it emulates the best practices of Beijing’s growth miracle. Whether or not that goal is achieved, it’s clear that Prime Minister Modi’s economic team understands what needs to be done. What remains to be seen is whether it can overcome India’s fractious democracy and get the job done.
India to beat China in growth in 2016: IMF
India to beat China in growth in 2016: IMF - The Hindu
“India will grow at 6.3% in 2015, up from 5.8% in 2014”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2016, overtaking China whose growth was forecast to slow down to 6.3 per cent.
In its World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, the IMF forecast that India would grow at 6.3 per cent in 2015, up from 5.8 per cent in 2014. China’s 2014 growth rate was 7.4 per cent.
In another forecast released on Tuesday, the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (U.N. WESP) report predicted a smart recovery for India in 2015. It pegged its 2015 India growth forecast lower than the IMF’s — at 5.9 per cent. At 6.3 per cent, the UN WESP’s 2016 India growth forecast is, however, closer to that of the IMF.
The IMF said global growth would receive a boost from lower oil prices. But this boost was projected to be more than offset by negative factors such as investment weakness, as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies.
It cut its global growth projection for 2015 to 3.5 per cent and for 2016 to 3.7 per cent, to show a downward revision of 0.3 per cent relative to its October 2014 forecast. The revision reflects a reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the Euro area and Japan as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices, it said in the World Economic Outlook. The U.S. is the on
In India, the growth forecast is broadly unchanged as weaker external demand is offset by the boost from lower oil prices and a pick-up in industrial and investment activity after policy reforms by the Narendra Modi government, the IMF said.
“India could overtake China, but it must be taken note of that China has grown at high growth rates of 9 per cent to 10 per cent over decades and it is a much larger economy and India will have to work to sustain high growth rates over a period of time to be an engine of global growth,” said Nagesh Kumar, Head of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission forAsia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), South and South-West Asia Office. He said there was no way other than the Centre to increase its public spending on infrastructure to take India on to a sustainable high growth path.
