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Democracy is not work, Iraq needs military rule as that of Thailand

已有 153 次阅读2016-1-27 14:39 |个人分类:Frank's Writings| military

Democracy is not work, Iraq needs military rule as that of Thailand   

          --- Debbie Schlussel rationally views the Arab Spring and the democracy

               Frank     Jan. 1, 2015, in Waterloo, On. Ca.

 

        --- Ms. Debbie Schlussel is a rare sober and rational Justice fighter with a strong sense of social responsibility in the chaotic world while vast majority of us in the state of nerve numbness blindly obedience. ---   

        Please look at following reports at first:

     Oct 27,2014BBC News - Iraq bomb attacks leave at least 34 dead.

     Nov. 8,  2014,Fresh Iraq blasts kill at least 31 in Baghdad.

     Dec, 2,  2014,  Bombs in Shi'ite, Kurdish districts kill 35 in Iraq.

     Is the Iraq a normal nation with a ecffective government? Why divine democracy can not work in Iraq, even, can not give Iraqi people a peace life.

     We need to reflect on the limitations or absurd of the democracy and the reasonableness ofdictatorship of Saddam Hussein. And also, what is the real significance of Arab Spring? The significance and contribution to to world peace of Hosni Mubarak 's dictatorship of military rule.

     Jan. 1, 2015, I read DEC. 22, 2014 article that In Struggle for National Identity, Iraqis Rally Around Many Flags to have inspired me an idea that who should be responsible for the chaos in Iraq? What is the way out?

     With such concerns, I Googled many related information, in which, a May 16, 2012 article that Debbie Schlussel posted on her Blog: MORON: Bush Praises Arab Spring; George W. – Father of Islamic “Democracy’ touched me very much. I appreciate the sober and rational on the view of democracy.

      "Al-Dubya-mockracy (emphasis on the “mock” part) is a deadly failure. But its brainless creator still doesn’t get it–that he did the jihadists’ work for them."

      "I would say the moron of the day award goes to George W. Bush for praising the Arab Spring bloodbath that ushered in Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Egypt, and so on and so forth. But, actually, in this case, he’s the moron of the decade, since he preached Islamic democracy ever since 9/11 and even before that. He’s the father of the Arab Spring, NOT Obama."

     "So, the “Arab Spring” now is his doing, something I warned against during his administration, but no one listened. And now we have the fruits of his idiocy."

      I appreciate the pragmatic spirit of Ms. Debbie Schlussel, she can see the problem from the nature without the the shackles of dogma.  

      Though, the chaos in Iraq is no relation with the Arab Spring, however, the root cause is the same, it is the results of blindly promoting democracy, which was made by U.S. government in the name of holy democracy.     

      Now, I think of my Nov. 16, 2014 article that Gregor Robertson a rational Mayor of Vancouver City, and excerpt some as follow:

      Nov. 16, 2014, I read the article Gregor Robertson: "you can question how worthwhile democracy is...", and was shocked by the rational response of Vancouver's Mayor Gregor Robertson to the CBC reporter's question about working with an authoritarian regime:

      "...you can be critical of a lot of regimes around the world, and you can question how worthwhile democracy is in a lot of countries right now which are, frankly, ignoring the biggest crisis in the history of our species which is climate change. That's where you see the Chinese government taking radical dramatic action in investing in turning the ship around. And you do not see that in Western governments right now, democratically elected, and that's because they're afraid. And that's not serving the greater interests of society." 

      In view of effectively governing the society and developing economy, Gregor Robertson is quite right, the democracy is not worthwhile in the most of countries and in the most of aspects rather than just in the few countries and in the climate issue. 

      Many people blindly advocate democracy, because they are not willingly to in-depth study, with a empty mind that only can remember some absurd dogma to trumpet the tone of others without normal brain to make clear that why blow such tune. They never can see the nature of the problem: why do we want a government, why do we want the democracy? What is the ultimate aim of the government or democracy?
      The only ultimate aim of the government or democracy is to proper govern society, is to proper develop economy, is to improve people's lives. 
      However, looking around the world, there rare democratic governments are playing right function. Holy dignified Congress became the place where those irrational politicians play bickering.
      In reality, as my view, the greatest sorrow for democratic government is that political parties mainly focus on what they want for own interests, with regardless of damaging to the national interest under the name of holy democracy, by which the government can not make a rational policy timely. So that a lot of important problems can not be solved; a lot of valuable time is wasted in the unnecessary quarrels. 

      The most terrible is that in order to get votes, the political parties and politicians dare dope any ridiculous ideas into the nation-fate-related vital issue - the development of the national policies.

     However, even, such a ridiculous democracy can not run well in all countries, such as, the countries and regions that religious forces and ethnic forces are too powerful to govern democratically.

     In concerning of effective social governance with enough power to ensure social stable, the military rule government may be the only viable means. Such as that of the current government of Thailand. 

      Following articles may help us to well understand the chaos in Iraq and the solution that military rule government has been playing effective role in Thailand.   

     1. Americans forced gifts of democracy and religious freedom has been destroying the nation - Iraq

     DEC. 22, 2014, In Struggle for National Identity, Iraqis Rally Around Many Flags

     2. Democratic nonsense will put into civil war in Thailand as that of Iraq and Libya

     April   5, 2014, Thailand crisis'red shirts' warn of civil war threat

     3. Democratic prank paralyzed legitimate government in Thailand

     Sep. 15, 2014, Democratic gov. Thai Suspends "Rice for High-Speed Rail" with China

     4. The military ruler has effectively restored the social order in Thailand

     May  22, 2014, BBC - Why is Thailand under military rule?

     May  22, 2014, Why did military act? 

     5. The military ruler ensures the efficient operation of Thailand's government

     Dec. 19, 2014, Military rule gov. Thailand and China sign rail, agriculture and bank deals

     6. Some photos of Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha welcomed by the leaders of China. 

About Debbie Schlussel:

Conservative political commentator, radio talk show host, columnist, and attorney

E-mail Debbie atwritedebbie@gmail.com

http://www.debbieschlussel.com/bio/

Schlussel’s unique expertise on radical Islam/Islamic terrorism and a host of other issues make her a popular speaker and television and radio news talk show guest, both nationally & internationally. (Her online fan club is the Internet's second largest for a political personality–behind only Ann Coulter.) She is a University of Michigan graduate and holds both Law and MBA degrees from the University of Wisconsin.

As both an attorney and a frequent New York Post and Jerusalem Post columnist, Schlussel’s writings/commentary on radical Islam and her legal actions against radical Islamic parties have gotten a great deal of attention — and results. Columns she’s written in the New York Post and appearances she???s made on “O’Reilly Factor”:

* caused FBI Director Robert Mueller to revoke an award to an American citizen who was a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine terrorist and was involved with a group with Al-Qaeda and Hamas ties (October 2003);

* caused Caribou Coffee to have its worst financial quarter ever, when Schlussel exposed the coffee chains radical Islamic ownership and leadership of Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi (a supporter of homicide bombings), and caused Starbucks to have its best quarter, when Schlussel exposed the radical Muslim boycott of the Jewish-led chain (June/July 2002). Caribou Coffee’s then-CEO, Don Dempsey, credited Schlussel with driving down sales and profits at his national coffee chain by calling him to the mat on Qaradawi, and her work on this issue was cited in Newsweek and Business Forward magazines;

* exposed Detroit’s U.S. Attorney (the Justice Department’s chief official in the heart of Islamic America), his secret dealings with Hamas money-launderers and terrorists the U.S. government had fought to deport (November 2003), and his efforts to overturn a guilty verdict against members of Detroit’s Al-Qaeda sleeper cell and set them free (December 2003); and

* exposed billionaire hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons and his Hip-Hop Summit Action Network’s political/voter registration efforts on behalf of not only Louis Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam, but also radical Palestinian and anti-Semitic, anti-Israel activists and groups.

In 2002, radical Muslim University of Michigan Regent Candidate, Ismael Ahmed, credited Schlussel for his election defeat–when she exposed his tax-funded Arab organization???s financial and moral support of Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and Hamas terrorists.

In 1998, Schlussel went undercover, dressed as a religious Muslim woman, to the Islamic Center of America, North America’s largest mosque, and reported, in The Detroit News on its support for terrorism, and anti-American, anti-Semitic hate. She was interviewed and quoted by Rolling Stone about the mosque and its radical imam, Hassan Qazwini, who is frequently consulted by President Bush and was invited to his Crawford, Texas ranch. Qazwini was embarrassed by the radical speakers and anti-Semitic hate he fostered in his mosque, and refused to address it in newspaper interviews. Schlussel was even attacked for her work on terrorism by movie critic Roger Ebert in a 2005 syndicated movie review.

Schlussel, who speaks Hebrew, Arabic, French, and Russian, works closely with several Federal law enforcement agencies, consulting on fighting the domestic War on Terrorism, and has provided them with much useful information. She has gone undercover, infiltrating many Muslim organizations in the Detroit area (the heart of Islamic America), exposing their radical nature and support for terrorism. Schlussel continues to represent a very valuable Muslim confidential informant to several federal governmentagencies, who has been responsible for putting hundreds with terrorism connections behind bars. She also represented several whistleblowers who exposed terrorist operations now under investigation.

Schlussel was also the first journalist/columnist to expose Indicted Islamic Jihad frontman, Sami Al-Arian’s visits to the Bush White House and photos with President Bush, as well as his campaign contributions to prominent U.S. Congressmen, including House International Relations Chairman Henry Hyde. Al-Arian blamed Schlussel (because of her series of columns on Al-Arian in 2001) and FOX News Channel’s Bill O’Reilly (on whose show Schlussel appeared, in October 2001, regarding Al-Arian) for his dismissal from the University of South Florida.

As an attorney, Schlussel represented University of Michigan students in a lawsuit against the University when it hosted Al-Arian as a speaker at a radical conference (a conference urging divestment from Israel) on campus, exposing him and other radical speakers, and putting them and their supporters on campus on the defensive.

You can read her popular twice-weekly online column, “Debbie Does Politics,” on the Internet, at www.PoliticalUSA.com, where she is a Contributor/Columnist and her own website, debbieschlussel.com. Schlussel is also a frequent New York Post, Jerusalem Post, and Vancouver Province columnist. Her columns have often been read on the air by Rush Limbaugh, on whom she broke the Monday Night Football story. Schlussel’s columns have also frequently appeared on the Knight-Ridder Newswire and in several major newspapers, including The Washington Times, The New York Post, The Jerusalem Post, The Detroit News, Detroit Free Press, Wisconsin State Journal. She has also written columns for FOXNews.com.

Schlussel has often been quoted in quoted in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The WashingtonPost, Newsweek, Rolling Stone, USA Today, New York Post, New York Daily News, New York Newsday, Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Miami Herald, Sports Business Daily, The Washington Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Philadelphia Daily News, Minneapolis Star Tribune, Indianapolis Star, Seattle Post Intelligencer, Kansas City Star, The Arizona Republic, San Jose Mercury News, The Austin Statesman, The Wisconsin State Journal, Charlotte Observer, National Post of Canada, McLean???s of Canada, Daily Telegraph of London, The Guardian U.K., The Vancouver Province, The Jerusalem Post, The Age of Australia, The Irish Times, The Irish Examiner, Associated Press, Knight-Ridder Wire, CanWest Global Wire, Golf World, CNN.com, and many other mainstream press publications.

Attacked as “Enemy #1″ by Ms. Magazine (“Women to Watch . . . and Watch Out For,” February/March 2001), Schlussel is a frequent guest on ABC’s “Politically Incorrect with Bill Maher,” CBS’ “Early Show,” FOX News Channel’s “O’Reilly Factor,” “Hannity & Colmes,” “FOX News Live,” “Beyond the News,” and “Judith Regan Tonight,” Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show,” MSNBC’s “Hardball with Chris Matthews,” “Buchanan & Press,” “The Abrams Report with Dan Abrams,” “Scarborough Country,” and “MSNBC Live,” CNN’s “Crossfire,” “Talk Back Live” and “Weekend Wrap,” C-SPAN’s “Washington Journal,” ESPN’s “Outside the Lines,” FOX Sports Net’s “Best Damn Sports Show Period,” and the Nationally Syndicated “America???s Black Forum” (hosted by NFL on FOX’s James Brown).

The Hotline, politics’ and talk shows’ most influential newsletter and online website, called Schlussel a “rising GOP pundit,” and The Hotline’s influential former columnist (and current “Hardball” producer) Howard Mortman wrote in his “Extreme Mortman” column that Schlussel is “one of the fastest rising young TV pundits today.” The site’s webcast of Schlussel was The Hotline’s most viewed webcast ever.

In 2002-2003, Schlussel was the host of her own show, ???The Debbie Schlussel Show,??? on 97.1 FM, Detroit???s FM Talk Station (Infinity/CBS)–#1 in its time-slot. A regular on the nationally syndicated ???The Howard Stern Show??? (audience: 20 million every morning), Schlussel has frequently appeared on National Public Radio???s ???All Things Considered,??? the Sean Hannity, Mitch Albom, Larry Elder, and Tom Leykis nationally syndicated radio shows, ESPN Radio, Sporting News Radio, and has been a frequent contributor to nationally syndicated FOX Sports Radio.

On Election Night 2000 through 2001, Schlussel was the political analyst for Detroit???s CBS and UPN Television affiliates, and was a regular political commentator on the weekly series, ???Flashpoint,??? on Detroit???s NBC affiliate, WDIV-TV. In the past, Schlussel was a daily political commentator on the nationally syndicated (in 23 states) morning radio show, ???Mancow???s Morning Madhouse,??? a top Chicago morning show, where she successfully predicted John McCain???s win of the Michigan Republican Primary.

The granddaughter of immigrant Holocaust survivors, Schlussel???s mother was born in the former Nazi concentration of Bergen Belsen in Germany, and her father is a Vietnam-era Army Veteran. A frequent speaker at conservative, pro-Israel, and Jewish conferences, gatherings, college campuses, and events around the U.S. Schlussel was a featured speaker at the 2004 National Board Meeting of JINSA (Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs), 2004 National Conference of the Zionist Organization of America (ZOA), 2001 and 2002 NRA Annual Meetings, 2002 Alpha Epsilon Pi (AEPi) Fraternity National Convention, and 2000 Toward Tradition Conference.

In 1988, Schlussel was the youngest female and youngest Jewish delegate to the Republican National Convention, a National Youth Vice Chairman of George H. W. Bush???s 1988 Presidential campaign, and a Youth Chairman of his 1989 Inauguration. An avid athlete who works out regularly, Schlussel won several medals in tennis, track and cross country running in the 1984 Maccabi Games (the Junior Jewish Olympics). In 1985, she was a finalist to represent the U.S. in tennis at the Maccabiah Games (Jewish Olympics) in Israel.

Schlussel worked for Fred Barnes, Editor of The Weekly Standard Magazine, host of FOX???s ???Beltway Boys,??? and Mort Kondracke, also of the ???Beltway Boys??? when Barnes and Kondracke were Senior Editors of The New Republic. Schlussel also worked in Washington for several Congressmen??”including Rep. Phil Crane, Chairman of the powerful House Trade Subcommittee.

A lifelong conservative Republican activist, at the age of 21 and with all odds against her, Schlussel ran for the Michigan House of Representatives from the suburban Detroit area and lost by just one vote, the closest election in Michigan political history. In 1986-???87, Schlussel was awarded the title of ???Outstanding Teen Age Republican in the Nation??? and was honored by President Ronald Reagan. You can often hear or read Schlussel???s insightful commentary on various political and sports-related issues in many publications and on many major radio and television stations in many major-market cities.

Schlussel has literally worked on campaigns for conservative Republican candidates since she was in the sixth grade, when she worked on Ronald Reagan???s first campaign for President. A long-time member of Mensa, the high IQ society, Schlussel was a National Merit Scholar Finalist. She is the only female member of the Advisory Board of the Motor City Bowl, an NCAA Division I college football bowl game, played at the Pontiac Silverdome and Ford Field and has been featured in both ???Who???s Who of Outstanding Young Americans??? and ???Who???s Who of Executives.

1. In Struggle for National Identity, Iraqis Rally Around Many Flags

 
By TIM ARANGO
Iraqi Kurdish fighters displayed the flag of Kurdistan in Erbil. Credit Safin Hamed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

BAGHDAD — At checkpoints across Baghdad, soldiers have defied a recent order from the prime minister to remove Shiite religious flags and replace them with Iraqi ones. At schools in the northern city of Kirkuk, students have raised Kurdish flags. And in the southern port city of Basra angry citizens have designed their own flag, anchored by the image of a single drop of oil.

Then, of course, there are the black flags of the Islamic State, the extremist group in control of about a third of the country.

Perhaps not since modern Iraq was created nearly a century ago by the fusion of three Ottoman provinces — Basra, Baghdad and Mosul — have more people challenged the idea of Iraq as a unified state.

Even as the new government is scrambling to defeat the militants of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, it faces an underlying challenge that may be tougher: promoting a new sense of national identity that, even if it cannot transcend the differences between Sunni and Shiite, Arab and Kurd, at least basically holds them together as countrymen.

Some officials have called for reinstating mandatory military service, in the belief it would bring communities together. Others have suggested promoting mixed marriages between Sunnis and Shiites by offering cash incentives. Still others say that promoting Iraq’s pre-Islamic past, as the cradle of civilization, could offer something from which Iraqis could build a degree of national unity.

State television is in propaganda overdrive, with dramas portraying battlefield victories punctuated by the raising of the Iraqi flag — a celluloid counterpoint to the true story on the ground, where the flags of various militias indicate the erosion of the state’s reach.

“The identity issue — getting an identity that all Iraqis can agree on so the state stays together — is serious,” said Phebe Marr, a prominent historian of modern Iraq. “This is a struggle for a new vision of Iraq.”

By every measure, it is a struggle in collision with the realities of life here, as communities become more isolated from one another.

Ehab al-Maliki, a famous Iraqi poet, has placed his talents in the service of the national project, appearing on state television, sometimes in a military uniform and holding a gun, to recite patriotic poems.

His goal, he said, is to use his poems “to promote national unity and the convergence of views, and to call for peaceful coexistence and nonviolence between communities.”

For this, he has received numerous death threats.

One, in a text message, read: “You are a Shiite dog, a bastard, and we swear to God we will cut your belly out and give it to the dogs. You don’t deserve life and we will hunt you down.”

In a recent decree, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi ordered the armed forces not to fly Shiite religious and militia flags. The banners have long aggrieved Iraq’s Sunni minority, who used to rule Iraq before the American invasion. Mr. Abadi was praised for this step by the United Nations’ Iraq representative in a speech in New York as a first step of “a broader initiative to restore confidence among Iraq’s communities.”
The problem, though, is that the Shiite flags are not coming down, and are not likely to.

At the V.I.P. checkpoint to the Green Zone, the government enclave in Baghdad, a soldier explained recently that when the flag order was handed down, people chose their faith over their commander in chief. There were no Iraqi flags at the checkpoint, only the black-and-green flags of Imam Hussein, the revered Shiite martyr.

“The secondary identities — cultural, religious, our ethnicity — have prevailed,” said Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq’s former national security adviser. “We all went to our little corners. Over the last decade, we have been looking for a new identity.”

A struggle for a national identity has persisted since the country’s modern founding after World War I, and has challenged all of Iraq’s authorities, from monarchs to dictators to occupiers.

Under the Ottomans, the primary identity was simply being a Muslim. After the British took charge, and for decades afterward, the ideology of Arab nationalism — “a hankering for a larger state,” in Ms. Marr’s words — united many of Iraq’s leaders.

Later, Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party ruled with an iron grip that allowed no other creed than obedience. And for a time, in the 1970s and ’80s, an increasing middle class that benefited from the state — not to mention the Iran-Iraq war — gave rise to some sentiments of national identity and patriotism, Ms. Marr said.

When the Americans invaded, for Iraqi society, “it was like a cover coming off a pressure cooker,” Mr. Rubaie said.

Ms. Marr first visited Iraq in 1957 to conduct research for her graduate thesis. She has visited and studied the country ever since, and in 1982 published the first edition of her highly regarded book, “The Modern History of Iraq,” which chronicles the country’s tumultuous past century, including a half-dozen coups, the monarchy’s ouster and many wars. None of those events, she said, threatened the integrity of the state as thoroughly as the current crisis does.

“It never occurred to me when I wrote this that it would be a question if Iraq stays together,” said Ms. Marr, who is working on a new edition.

Few expect the country to formally break apart soon. But many are suddenly talking about the possibility — long a subject of Western think tanks but more and more a topic of discussion in the cafes and living rooms of ordinary Iraqis, and in the salons and offices of the powerful.

“We don’t feel like we have a country that will defend us and protect us and love us,” said Arkan Hussain, a 28-year-old Sunni man who lives near Tikrit, where the Islamic State is largely in control. “Each and every one of us has forgotten his country, and started thinking about his tribe and sect.”

Similarly, Wafa Muhammad, a Shiite woman in southern Iraq, said, “as for the national identity, no one is crying for Iraq. Everyone is crying for his sect or faith, and you rarely find anyone who cries for Iraq.”

After the British took control of Mesopotamia and tried to shape it into a modern nation-state called Iraq, Gertrude Bell, the diplomat credited with drawing the country’s borders, visited a prominent Baghdad farmer and local leader to ask his advice on how to knit together Iraq’s many ethnicities and faiths. To prepare for the visit of Miss Bell — as she was known to Iraqis — the farmer stopped feeding his roosters. When she came, he put the hungry roosters in a cage, and the result was a bloody mess.

The farmer then turned to Miss Bell, as the story is related today by one of his descendants, Muthanna al-Lami, and said: “We had 400 years of the Ottomans, and we have suffered under them. Please help the Iraqis and don’t let them fight like these roosters.”

More than a decade later, the king that she helped install in power, Faisal I, wrote: “With my heart filled with sadness, I have to say that it is my belief that there is no Iraqi people inside Iraq. There are only diverse groups with no national sentiments. They are filled with superstitious and false religious traditions with no common grounds between them.”

The same could largely be said today. If anything, many Iraqis say, unity is something for the far-off future.

“Reconciliation cannot take place right now,” said Amar Ahmed, 42, of Tikrit. “But after decades from now, maybe the next generations can forget what has happened with all this bloodshed.”.

2. Thailand 'red shirts' warn of civil war threat

             5 April 2014 Last updated at 14:03 ET

The BBC's Jonathan Head: "The Reds say they will oppose any undemocratic moves against the government"

Leaders of Thailand's pro-government movement have warned that any attempt to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra could trigger a civil war.

They issued the warning at a rally outside Bangkok - the first staged by the "red shirt" movement near the capital since violent clashes broke out in November.

Opponents of Ms Yingluck and her party have filed legal cases against her.

Months of anti-government mass protests have failed to unseat her.

A member of the pro-government "red shirt" group holds a picture of Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra during a rally on the outskirts of Bangkok, 5 April 2014Protesters show their Thai identity cards after opposition claims that rally organisers paid migrants to attend
 The PM's supporters say they are holding the rally to deter her opponents from attempts to oust her

Speaking to a crowd of tens of thousands, Jatuporn Promphan, the chairman of the pro-government United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), said judicial institutions were trying "to take over power without elections".

"What we are most concerned about - that we want to warn all sides against - is a civil war, which we do not want to happen," he said.

"It will happen if there is a coup and democracy is stolen."

Acute anxiety

Ms Yingluck is facing mounting legal cases - including charges of neglect of duty and abuse of power - that correspondents say could see her removed from office in coming weeks.

Meanwhile anti-government protesters have continued their own demonstrations from their headquarters in Bangkok's central Lumpini Park.

The government called an election in February, but that was obstructed by protesters.

Since then Thailand has been in a state of paralysis, reports the BBC's Jonathan Head in Bangkok.

Ms Yingluck's party has won the last five elections, but her opponents argue that Thailand's democracy is so deeply flawed that it must be reformed before another election can be held.

Another factor driving the conflict is acute anxiety over the ailing health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, our correspondent adds.

The red shirts at Saturday's rally openly showed support for his son Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. He is the designated heir but some among the traditional elite are believed to oppose him.

3. Thailand Suspends "Rice for High-Speed Rail" Project with China

Sep 15, 2014 Oryza.com -

Thailand had suspended the "Rice for High-Speed Rail" program with China last week citing huge price differential as the reason, according to local sources.
 China and Thailand struck the deal in October 2013, under which China would build a high-speed rail network in Thailand in exchange for its rice. However, doubts arose on the continuation of this project in February 2014 due to political disturbances in Thailand. One of China's state-owned enterprises cancelled a deal to buy 1.2 million tons of rice from Thailand after the 
National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) began probe into the controversial rice pledging scheme.
 Thai Commerce Minister said last week that the project is being suspended because of large price differences between Thai rice and high-speed rail technology. He noted that both the governments are working out other means to continue the project by , adding that China is keen on making infrastructure investment in Thailand. He, however said Thailand still prefers high-speed rail project in exchange for any other product other than rice.
 Leaving the Commerce Minister's explanations aside, analysts say China's cancellation of Thai rice deal could have instigated Thailand to suspend the deal with China. Political analysts opine that Thailand could have suspended the 
project due to security concerns as well as fear of Chinese domination.

4. Why is Thailand under military rule? 

22 May 2014 Last updated at 10:37 ET   

Thailand's army has seized power in a coup after months of political turmoil. BBC News looks at why this has happened.

What prompted the coup?

The military says it has taken control of the government and suspended the constitution in order to restore order and enact political reforms.

Thailand is currently in a political mess. The country has been in the grip of unrest for months, with the opposition saying the democratically elected government must go because it is corrupt. A number of people have been killed in the violence.

Observers say it is very hard to see how the problems can be resolved any time soon.

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What is happening on the ground?

The coup comes after months of escalating tensions

The cabinet has been ordered to report to the military and gatherings of more than five people have been banned.

A nationwide curfew is in force between 22:00 and 05:00 local time. The broadcast media have been told to suspend all normal programming.

A military statement said army chief Gen Prayuth would head a ruling military body - the National Peace and Order Maintaining Council - but that the upper house of parliament and courts would continue to function.

Political party leaders, including opposition leader Suthep Thaugsuban, were taken away from a venue where they had been holding talks with the army after troops sealed off the area.

Shortly after the coup announcement soldiers moved rapidly on the "red shirt" camp on the outskirts of Bangkok, as well as towards the anti-government demonstrators' camp in the centre of town. Troops fired into the air to disperse the pro-government protest camp but there are no reports of major violence.

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Have there been coups before?

 

A Thai soldier outside Government House, Tuesday, May 20, 2014
        Soldiers have a history of taking control in Thailand

Many observers were sceptical when the army insisted its declaration of martial law on 20 May did not amount to a takeover. Two days later they were proved right.

There have been numerous military coups in recent decades - this is the 12th since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.

The last coup before this one was in 2006, when then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was toppled by the army after being accused of corruption.

The army is often accused of being sympathetic to the cause of his opponents in the current anti-government movement.

Thailand army's pivotal role in politics

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What could happen now?  

Many Thailand watchers fear the army move could enrage government supporters.

The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Bangkok says those people who voted for what is still the elected government will feel extremely frustrated by what has happened.

Most people are expecting the "red shirts", the broad protest movement linked to the government, to rally and are extremely concerned about the possibility of confrontation, he adds.

There are also worries about the economy - Thailand's currency the baht sank after the coup announcement. The stock exchange says it expects to keep operating as normal.

The government has been trying to organise a date for a new general election - those moves have been thrown into great uncertainty.

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What are the roots of the crisis?
Anti-government protesters outside the headquarters of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party in Bangkok (29 November 2013) Thai society is polarised, with two distinct political sides

There is a deep political divide in Thailand - between mostly rural, often poor, supporters of Mr Thaksin, and an urban middle class who object to what they see as his continuing influence in Thai politics.

There have been regular protests by both sides ever since Mr Thaksin was ousted in 2006, but in the past few years the focus has been on the current Thaksin-aligned Pheu Thai government.

The protests began to escalate into violence last November, after the lower house passed a controversial amnesty bill which critics said could allow Mr Thaksin to return from exile without serving time in jail.

The anti-government camp claims that at least 28 people have died since then.

The situation deteriorated still further earlier this month, when a controversial court ruling removed Mr Thaksin's sister Yingluck from her position as prime minister, saying she had acted illegally by moving her national security chief to another position.

Where is Thailand heading after protests?

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Who are the two sides?
Suthep Thaugsuban waves to supporters during an anti-government march to the Government complex in Bangkok, Thailand, 27 November 2013 Suthep Thaugsuban is the leader of the anti-government protests

The anti-government protesters are a disparate group, united by their opposition to Mr Thaksin.

They are being led by Suthep Thaugsuban, a former deputy prime minister who resigned from the opposition Democrat Party to lead the rallies.

The protesters say the Pheu Thai government has been buying votes with irresponsible spending pledges, aimed purely to bolster its support base, and thereby creating a flawed democracy.

They want the government dissolved and an interim administration appointed to oversee political reform.

 "Red shirts" have warned that any attempt to oust the government could trigger a civil war

In contrast, the red shirts have been largely supportive of the government's policies, and have warned that they will turn out in large numbers if the government they elected is forced from office.

They have held a number of rallies, but have for the most part remained off the streets.

Observers fear that if they were to decide to protest again, an escalation in violence would follow.

The red shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan, has said his group could accept martial law, but "would not tolerate a coup or other non-constitutional means" to take power.

Profile: Suthep Thaugsuban and Thailand's protesters

Thai 'red shirts' warn of civil war

4. Why did military act?

Thai army detains ex-PM Yingluck

By Jonah Fisher BBC News, Bangkok 22 May 2014 Last updated at 14:50 ET

Thai soldiers stand guard outside the entrance to the pro-government Red Shirts protest camp in Bangkok (22 May 2014) The pro-government Red Shirts' camp outside Bangkok was cleared forcefully by troops  

It was a strange day, but not because we were not expecting a military takeover - a coup had been on the cards since martial law was declared on Tuesday.

It was more the way events unfolded.

On Wednesday, Thailand's army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha had summoned representatives of all the main political groups for talks.

They spoke for two hours and we were then briefed that things had gone well and that everyone had been given "homework" to complete on the key issues.

We were expecting more of the same on Thursday.

No-one realistically expected Thailand's deep-rooted political problems to be solved overnight - or indeed in a couple of hours of discussions - so why did Gen Prayuth decide to so dramatically end proceedings and seize power?

No timetable

Watching from outside the compound where the meeting was taking place, we saw military trucks suddenly block the entrances and exits before soldiers began to force us back.

The moment Jonah Fisher and other reporters realised a coup was under way

Then minivans containing the leaders of the political parties, demonstrating groups and government emerged, escorted by troops.

Something was clearly up and a few minutes later Gen Prayuth appeared on television to announce that he had taken over.

Tellingly, in his address he spoke of restoring order and reforms, but not of a timetable for elections.

In the evening, decrees were issued consolidating the military's hold on power.

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Key coup conditions

  • Curfew nationwide from 22:00 to 05:00
  • Gen Prayuth to head ruling National Peace and Order Maintaining Council
  • Senate and courts to continue operating
  • 2007 constitution suspended except for chapter on monarchy
  • Political gatherings of more than five people banned, with penalties of up to a one-year jail term, 10,000 baht ($307) fine, or both
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By then it had a new name for their command structure, the Orwellian sounding "National Peace and Order Maintaining Council".

Over a period of hours the constitution was suspended, TV channels blocked and a curfew imposed.

Protest camps were cleared - the pro-government Red Shirts' site outside Bangkok forcefully; the opposition PDRC movement's in the city centre more amicably, with buses laid on to take demonstrators home.

What changed?

For many of the PDRC's supporters, a coup is the end result they had been hoping for.

 

But questions remain. Did Gen Prayuth really expect to achieve success in talks in two short meetings? Or was it his always his intention to make a token nod towards negotiations before stepping in?

Could the talks really have been a ruse to get all the key leaders in one place before detaining them?

In the past, Gen Prayuth has expressed a reluctance to resort to a military coup.

So what changed from Tuesday to Thursday? There certainly was not a deterioration in security.

There has been some suggestion that elements within the Thai army may have forced his hand, or indeed that some external factor may have played a part.

The rush from martial law to full-blown coup has left many here shaking and scratching their heads.

Are you in Thailand? What is your reaction to the military coup? Email Haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk with your experiences, using the subject Thailand.

5. Military rule gov. Thailand and China sign rail, agriculture and bank deals

Dec. 23, 2014 http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/12/thailand-and-china-sign-rail.html

Thailand signed two memorandums of understanding with China on the development of a key rail link project and the purchase of agricultural products. China plans to construct two parts of railroads linking northeastern Nong Khai province to Bangkok and the eastern port of Map Ta Phut starting in 2016, according to the Thai government. The north-south rail link, covering 870 kilometers (544 miles), is expected to facilitate the transport of goods from China’s southern region to Gulf of Thailand ports via Laos.
The project is valued at around 400 billion baht or $12.2 billion, the Thai government has said.
Everybody in this region knows that Thailand - no matter which government is in power - wants to be the first among equals in engaging with China. Up to this point, every country has had to look forward to deals with China, but now Thailand is at the forefront.
Prayut has also helped fulfil a Chinese financial ambition to make the renminbi yuan a regional currency. During his visit to Beijing on Monday, Thai and Chinese central banks signed an extension of the Renminbi-Thai Baht Bilateral Swap Agreement (BSA) and an MoU to establish renminbi clearing arrangements in Thailand.
China has a BSA with many countries in this region, including Malaysia. The yuan clearing-house would facilitate access to and use of the Chinese currency for trade and investment in Thailand and the region. This will be more convenient as economic transactions increase, and if western currencies like the US dollar, fluctuate.
Two-way trade between the two countries amounted to $64.7 billion (2.1 trillion baht) last year, an increase from $42 billion in 2010. Two way trade is projected to reach $100 billion in 2016.
                   Democracy is not work, Iraq needs military rule as that of Thailand - 风萧萧 - Notebook of Frank
China has also promised to purchase about 2 million metric tons of rice and some 200,000 tons of rubber. The large purchase is expected provide the Thai government a much-needed channel to offload its rice and rubber stockpiles it inherited from the previous administration’s subsidy programs.
In 2013, China overtook over Japan as Thailand’s top trade partner, accounting for about 14% of the total trade this year.
SOURCES - Wall Street Journal, Asia One, Bangkok Post Author:  

3 comments

 Raahul Kumar Resident Expert

  • One of the huge points of this article was dropped in casually

    "Beijing on Monday, Thai and Chinese central banks signed an extension of the Renminbi-Thai Baht Bilateral Swap Agreement (BSA) and an MoU to establish renminbi clearing arrangements in Thailand."

    I want to let everyone on NBF know of my prediction of the Decline of the Dollar, and the Rise of the Rest. Currencies starting with R, such as the Renminbi.
    I'm predicting by 2020, precisely because of deals like this, that the Renminbi will have surpassed the dollar in trade, and commodites such as gold, oil and all others will also be priced in Renminbi. 2020 is my prediction for the Dollar to become the No2 Currency. 8 day(s) ago

  •  Luca Mazza Futurist

    Great to see that China is expanding his area of reach in a pacific and contructive way, building rails instead of dropping bombs. 
    Kudos co CHina!! 8 day(s) ago

  •  Luca Mazza Futurist  in reply to Raahul Kumar One of the huge points of this article was dropped in ca...

    Interesting comment.
    Just to note that China and Russia are also kicking out the dollar 
    Russia-China Deals: Another Nail in the Coffin for U.S. Dollar</i>
    http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/item/18462-russia-china-deals-another-nail-in-the-coffin-for-u-s-dollar          

6. 

Some photos of the Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha welcomed by the leaders of China.

 

CHINA-XI JINPING-THAILAND-PM-MEETING(CN)

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) meets with Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 23, 2014. (Xinhua/Ding Lin)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-12/23/c_133874400.htm

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (R) shakes hands with visiting Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha before their talks in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 22, 2014. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (R) shakes hands with visiting Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha before their talks in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 22, 2014. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)

http://english.cntv.cn/2014/12/23/ARTI1419299006403298.shtml

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang holds talks with visiting Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 22, 2014. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang holds talks with visiting Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 22, 2014. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)

http://english.cntv.cn/2014/12/23/ARTI1419299006403298.shtml



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