“我为加拿大落泪”：92岁教授兼前国会议员对移民与福利国家制度的警示

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CNUfg3IBCI&t=158s

Canada Info 2026年4月29日 加拿大下议院

“我现在几乎为这个国家感到惋惜。” Herbert Grubel教授——一位知名经济学家兼前国会议员——在这场极具分量的会议上直言不讳。从规模不经济到临时居民身份带来的隐性成本，他阐述了自己撰写新书《我为加拿大落泪》（I Cry for You Canada）的原因。

格鲁贝尔教授，您的五分钟发言时间现在开始。
谢谢主席女士。我曾随财政委员会在全国各地考察了两年，因此我对这里的氛围非常熟悉。最根本的是，我欢迎像现在这样针对移民政策科学性的公开听证会。

我希望这能引发议会内应有的关注与讨论，而这些讨论正是我们所需要的。就我个人而言，尽管我在移民经济学领域发表过大量学术著作，却从未被邀请参与制定官方移民目标和甄选标准的讨论。

同样，在1993年至1997年担任国会议员期间，我也从未被要求就这些议题进行投票。只有一次，一位部长私下告诉我，要坚持研究和发表著作，并对他保持严格的监督与问责。

我认为，最亟需变革的是那些决定临时居民（即获准在加拿大工作或学习的人员）数量及甄选标准的政策。 获准在加拿大工作或学习的临时居民。应允许填补经济中季节性或临时劳动力短缺的外国人员入境，其人数应由议会委员会定期设定。

不应允许外国学生就读中小学。他们既无益于加拿大，又加重了学校资源的负担。应允许外国学生入读加拿大的学院、大学和研究生院。他们为这些教育机构和经济带来宝贵益处，尤其是考虑到他们缴纳了学费。在这些机构完成学业的外国学生，不应再被视为获得
永久居民身份的优先候选人。政府应采取政策，确保临时工人和学生在签证到期后离开加拿大。

谈及另一个问题，应只向父母和祖父母发放“超级签证”（Super Visa），就像政府在2016年实施改革之前的做法那样。这完全合情合理。如果外国人不愿在没有父母陪同的情况下前来，那他就不该来。

处理寻求庇护者的制度需要改革，甚至可能需要像其他西方民主国家那样进行根本性改革。此类改革可能包括制定措施，以减少难民身份申请的积压。我深知这是我国外交政策面临的最棘手问题之一，且没有简单的解决方案。这其中涉及必须权衡的基本人类价值观。 ……移民所遭受的苦难，同时也包括那些发现自己的住房、……医疗服务……（还剩一分钟）……格鲁贝尔（Grubel）教授，抱歉。

还剩一分钟。好的。谢谢女士，我说完了。
……[笑声]

谢谢教授。谢谢，我很感激。好的，马库斯（Makus）先生，请您提问。
谢谢主席女士，也感谢今天出席会议的所有证人。格鲁贝尔教授，我想先向您提问。
您认为自由党政府在过去十年允许大量移民入境之前，是否考虑过这对医疗保健、住房和就业等方面的影响？

……我不得而知，但事实证明，无论他们采取了什么措施，结果对加拿大都是非常不利的。
……您是否同意，一次性接纳如此多的人口会产生“规模不经济”效应……
……而且其成本实际上可能高于以更缓慢、更可持续的方式进行移民的情况？
……完全正确。我的意思是，这对整个国家而言，结果并非积极的，而是消极的。我非常……
……同情像那位来自岛上的先生所提到的情况——即存在劳动力短缺问题——但是……
……如果我们突然引入过量的人口或任何事物，就会出现适应性难题；而且这不仅仅是……
……适应性难题，它正在扼杀我们的经济。 5:47 先生，您说的这一点非常有道理。您认为这是否会影响……
5:55 ……新来者……的能力？让如此众多的新移民在加拿大取得成功……
……这自然会带来一些问题，比如找工作、找住处、获取医疗服务等等。
你认为目前的环境是否有利于这些新移民在加拿大取得成功？
我虽然不直接接触移民，但我经常阅读关于经济状况的报道，也听说……
……近期移民群体中出现了一种强烈的呼声，要求降低移民接收率。
没错。他们是首当其冲感受到这一问题的人群，就像我们那些……
……面临工作机会被抢走的年轻技术人才一样。
你认为政府是否应该负责提供……
……住所或住房，比如针对寻求庇护者、难民……
……以及其他新移民？政府是否应该……关于这场持续已久的争议……
……尤其是围绕寻求庇护者的争议，我的看法是：我们提供的福利越多，……
……就会吸引越多的寻求庇护者——无论他们的申请理由是否正当，……
……只要能从中获得福利，他们就会来。嗯，确实如此。谢谢你的观点。
著名经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）——我曾在芝加哥任教时与他共事过——曾说过，……
……“福利国家”制度与“自由移民”政策是无法并存的。过去十年里，我们正日益走向移民自由化；而对于“这绝无可能”的预判，我们如今正为此付出代价。
顺带一提，先生，不知您是否听说，政府曾因预订酒店安置人员而引发了不小的争议——他们在全国各地租用酒店，仅仅是为了提供住宿，却耗费了巨额资金。
为了摆脱这一争议，他们设立了一项新计划；最近我们获悉，他们向渥太华市拨款4000万加元，用于全额收购一家酒店以安置这些人。
也就是说，他们不再租赁，而是改用由渥太华市拥有的酒店来安置这些人。
例如，昨天我读到一则报道，称安大略省的皮克林（Pickering）镇也获得了2735万加元拨款，用于同样的用途——即收购当地的一家酒店。
给渥太华4000万，给皮克林2735万；据我们所知，这仅仅是已知的两个案例。
政府一直不愿保持透明，也不愿提供一份清单，列出究竟有多少个城市获得了此类拨款。
先生，对此您有何看法？您还剩下一分钟时间。
总的来说，我想我正在撰写的那本书里会详述这一切。我为加拿大感到痛心。 9:38 我在1972年来到这里，当时我在美国已经拥有终身教授职位，
9:45 但我来了，因为我热爱加拿大，热爱温哥华。如今，我甚至为这个国家感到惋惜。
9:53 我很高兴自己已经92岁了。
9:57 最后我想说：感谢您今天出席会议。呃，我希望等我到了92岁时，如果
10:05 我有幸活到那个年纪，也能有人邀请我来这里发言。同时也感谢您作为国会议员为加拿大所做的贡献。感谢您的莅临。不客气。
10:13 谢谢。呃，谢谢Grubel教授，也谢谢Managus先生。下一位。
10:18 谢谢主席女士。呃，Grubel教授，[清嗓子] 当我审视您多年来的研究成果——那些令人印象深刻的成就时，
10:26 我是在阅读了您的部分工作内容之后，才知道您曾担任过国会议员。这让我有些意外，但我很高兴今天能与您交流。
10:36 在您的政策研究历程中，您主要关注财政责任、劳动力市场竞争、
10:44 基础设施瓶颈，以及基于经济需求的甄选式移民政策。
10:50 我来自安大略省的尼亚加拉地区，我们亲眼目睹了您在文章中提到的那些压力，
10:59 比如住房短缺、基础设施不堪重负，以及在关键行业中平衡劳动力需求与停滞不前的工资水平所面临的挑战。这种切身体验引发了几个根本性问题。我想请您向委员会介绍一下您评估……的框架，
即您所说的移民对财政产生的净影响。哪些变量最为关键？决策者应如何解读这些结果？
您提到的那本书是由弗雷泽研究所（Fraser Institute）出版的，不过他们当时出版得有些勉强。

…一位合著者，一位曾在渥太华长期居住的美国人。事情是这样的……
……我们的注意力被以下事实吸引：
……当移民进入加拿大后，加拿大统计局发现他们的收入低于……
……同等年龄和受教育程度的加拿大本地工人。
……这种低收入状况会持续长达20年，而且从未……
……完全消失。我不知道这是否源于歧视或其他原因，但这确实是个事实；而且当我们……
……撰写这本书时，情况每五年都在恶化——加拿大统计局的数据显示……
……情况变得越来越糟。与此同时，他们在加拿大定居后，有权享受我们提供的所有政府福利。
……此外，由于我们实行累进所得税制……
……这些低收入移民既能享受到所有不与收入挂钩的福利……
……同时，由于收入较低，他们缴纳的税款也少得多。我们计算出……
……早在80年代，移民给加拿大其他地区带来的成本就高达数十亿美元……
……这一事实从未被提及，当时也遭到了忽视。
……仅仅因为指出了这些情况，我们就遭到了憎恶。
……人们会说：“哦，这是错的，这是错的。”但数据就摆在那里。没人反驳他们。
但当然，大众媒体并不喜欢这个想法，因为当时加拿大的普遍心态是：移民
绝不会犯错，我们需要越来越多的移民。问题在于，
作为小企业主，我们是否都愿意为此提供补贴？
这是一个我们应该探讨的问题。
在我活跃于写作的时期，这些问题从未被讨论过。我们本应听取双方的意见。
教授，容我插一句，由于时间有限……好的，我料到您会打断
我的话，否则我就没法继续讲下去了。教授，批评人士认为您的分析方法可能低估了长期效益和
第二代移民带来的益处。您对此有何回应？政府又该如何在短期财政影响与长期经济收益之间取得平衡？
嗯，那是另一个值得探讨的问题。我们……还有一分钟。
埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）并非典型案例。
从长远来看——正如凯恩斯所言……
所以我不知道，在您看来，加拿大应该如何确定每年的适度移民规模？
哪些经济指标或承载能力限制应当作为决策的依据？
这里有一群像这样的人。听听那些小企业主、农民，甚至是大型制造企业的声音——他们往往依赖大量廉价劳动力（包括廉价的进口劳动力）。我们听取这些意见，同时也听听像我这样的人的观点：
如果总是能获得廉价劳动力，
社会就没有动力去采用节省劳动力的设备。
谢谢 Grubel 教授，也谢谢 Davies 先生。还要谢谢主席女士。Grubel 教授，在自由党执政的过去十年里，加拿大的生产率一直在下降。
投资正以前所未有的规模流出该国，而这与自由党那份代价高昂、透支未来的预算（展望至2025年）有关。所以我的问题是：
像自由党过去几年那样大幅提高移民数量，能否弥补生产率低下、商业投资疲软以及资本形成不足的问题？
恰恰相反，这会降低人均收入，除非……
他们能提高生产率——但我们目前并没有提高生产率。关于生产率，我想举个例子：
当加州减少了流入该州山谷地区的墨西哥……
农业工人数量时，所有人都说这会毁了加州。
但结果并非如此。他们没有继续靠人工采摘番茄，而是开发了……
采摘番茄的机器。不过，这些番茄的味道不如以前的好。那么，他们……
做了什么呢？他们对番茄进行了基因改造，使其能够经受采摘，同时保持与我们过去所吃番茄同样好的口感。谢谢您，格鲁贝尔先生。很抱歉我们的时间这么有限。谢谢您，何先生。

I cry for you, Canada: 92-year-old prof and ex-MP’s warning about immigration & welfare state

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CNUfg3IBCI&t=158s

Canada Info 2026年4月29日  HOUSE OF COMMONS OF CANADA

"I'm now almost sorry for this country." ???? Professor Herbert Grubel, a former MP and renowned economist, doesn't hold back in this powerful session. From the diseconomies of scale to the hidden costs of temporary residency, he explains why he’s writing his latest book, I Cry for You Canada.

Professor Gubell, your five minutes starts now.
0:044秒钟Thank you, Madame Chair. I I traveled around the country for two years with finance committee, so I'm very familiar with the atmosphere.
0:1414秒钟Most fundamentally, I welcome public hearings as we are having now on the science of our immigration policy.
0:2424秒钟I think I hope it will give the deserved publicity and discussion in parliament that has been needed.
0:3232秒钟On a personal note, despite my numerous academic publications in the field of
0:3939秒钟immigration economics, I was never asked to participate in the discussions around the setting of official immigration targets and selection criteria.
0:5252秒钟Nor as a member of parliament from 93 to 97 was I ever asked to vote on these
0:5959秒钟issues. Only once did a minister tell me privately to keep up my research and
1:051分钟5秒钟publications and hold his feet to the fire.
1:111分钟11秒钟I believe that in the that in greatest need of change are policies determining
1:201分钟20秒钟the number and selection criteria of temporary residents. temporary residents
1:261分钟26秒钟who are admitted to work or study in Canada.
1:311分钟31秒钟Foreigners who fill seasonal or temporary labor shortages in the economy should be admitted in numbers at
1:401分钟40秒钟frequent regular intervals and set by parliamentary committee.
1:481分钟48秒钟The there should be no foreign students attending elementary and secondary schools. They do not benefit Canada and burden our schools resources.
2:012分钟1秒钟Foreign students should be admitted to attend Canadian colleges, universities, and graduate schools. They bring
2:092分钟9秒钟valuable benefits to the institutions and economy, especially to the extent that they pay tuition.
2:182分钟18秒钟Foreign students who have completed degrees in these institutions should no longer be preferred candidates for
2:272分钟27秒钟permanent resident status. The government should adopt policy to ensure does that temporary workers and students
2:362分钟36秒钟leave Canada after their visas have.
2:422分钟42秒钟Now on a separate issue, parents and grandparents should be granted only super
2:502分钟50秒钟visitor visas as they had been practiced before the changes initiated by the
2:572分钟57秒钟government in 2016. It makes eminent sense.
3:023分钟2秒钟If a a foreigner does not want to come without his parents, he just should not
3:103分钟10秒钟come. The system dealing with asylum seekers needs to be reformed. Possibly
3:183分钟18秒钟fundamentally much as it is in other western democracies.
3:233分钟23秒钟Such reforms may include the development of ways in which the backlog of applications for refugees status is
3:333分钟33秒钟reduced. I'm fully aware that this is one of the most difficult problems our foreign policy faces and there are no
3:423分钟42秒钟easy solutions. There are tradeoffs that involve fundamental human values. the suffering of
3:513分钟51秒钟immigrants, but also the suffering of Canadians who find their uh housing,
4:024分钟2秒钟their medic access to medical one minute left. Professor Grubel, pardon me.
4:104分钟10秒钟One minute left. Fine. Thank you, madam. I'm done.
4:164分钟16秒钟[laughter]
4:184分钟18秒钟Thank you, professor. You are uh Thank you. I appreciate that. Okay, Mr. Makus. Over to you.
4:254分钟25秒钟Thank you, Madam Chair, and thank you to all of our witnesses for appearing before us today. Uh like to start my questions with you, Professor Grubal.
4:354分钟35秒钟Um, do you believe that the uh Liberal government considered the impact on uh things like health care, housing, and
4:444分钟44秒钟jobs prior to letting in the large number of immigrants that they have allowed in over the past decade?
4:524分钟52秒钟I wouldn't know, but it turns out whatever they did, it was very bad for Canada.
4:594分钟59秒钟Um would you agree that when uh when there are uh that there are diseconomies of scale when letting in so many people
5:075分钟7秒钟at once and the costs may actually be higher than if immigration was done in a in a slower more sustainable manner?
5:155分钟15秒钟Exactly. I mean it it turns not into positive it turns for the country as a whole as a negative. I have great
5:235分钟23秒钟sympathy for gentlemen like we heard from the island uh that there a labor shortage but
5:335分钟33秒钟if we bring in too many too much of anything suddenly you will have adjustment problems and it was more than
5:425分钟42秒钟adjustment problems was killing our economy.
5:475分钟47秒钟Well, that that you make a very valid point there, uh, sir. Uh, do do you think it it it it has an impact on, uh,
5:555分钟55秒钟uh, the ability of newcomers that coming to Canada to be able to have successful outcomes when there's so many of them
6:036分钟3秒钟coming and of course it creates a problem with with uh, finding jobs and finding a residence to live and, you know, getting healthcare and so forth.
6:126分钟12秒钟Do you think it's an environment that that is conducive for them to be able to succeed in Canada as newcomers to our country?
6:206分钟20秒钟Well, I'm not in contact with immigrants, but I read a lot about what is going on in the economy and I hear
6:296分钟29秒钟that the that the recent immigrants are a strong lobby for reducing the rate of immigrant.
6:396分钟39秒钟That's right. They they are the ones they are the ones at the front to feel this problem as well as our own les
6:496分钟49秒钟skilled young people whose jobs are being taken.
6:556分钟55秒钟Do you think that the government should be in the business of providing um
7:017分钟1秒钟accommodations, housing for uh for for example asylum seekers and refugees and
7:097分钟9秒钟uh uh you know newcomers coming? Should the government My commentary Yeah. Yeah. My commentary
7:167分钟16秒钟on this controversy that we're continuing here and was going on before with the
7:247分钟24秒钟asylum seekers is that the more benefits we offer,
7:307分钟30秒钟the more we will have asylum seekers who may may or may not have legitimate
7:397分钟39秒钟claims but are getting benefits from doing so. Mhm. Well, yeah. Thank you for that.
7:487分钟48秒钟A famous economist, Milton Friedman, colleague of mine when I was teaching in Chicago said it is incompatible
7:587分钟58秒钟to have the welfare state and free immigration. And we in the last 10 years
8:058分钟5秒钟have been moving more and more towards free immigration. and that prediction that it is impossible we're paying for.
8:148分钟14秒钟Along those lines, sir, uh I don't know if you have heard, but you the government ran into quite a bit of controversy because they were uh booking
8:228分钟22秒钟hotels and putting people in hotels uh across across the country uh uh just housing them housing them there at
8:298分钟29秒钟exorbitant costs. Now, to get away from that controversy, they created a new program and recently we found out they gave the city of Ottawa $40 million to
8:388分钟38秒钟purchase an outright purchase a hotel so they can house these people. So, they're not renting anymore. They house them now in a in a hotel that is owned by uh by
8:478分钟47秒钟the city of Ottawa to house these people. Uh yesterday, for example, I I read an article of another 27.35
8:558分钟55秒钟million uh that was given to uh Pickering, the town of Pickering here in in Ontario to do the same thing to purchase a hotel
9:049分钟4秒钟there. So 40 million to Ottawa, 27 35 million to Pickering. That's only two
9:119分钟11秒钟locations that we know where they've done that so far that we know of. uh they've been very reluctant to provide to be transparent and give us a list of
9:199分钟19秒钟of how many municipalities they've given money to. What do you have to say about that, sir? You have one minute left.
9:259分钟25秒钟Well, most generally, I think it will all be said in the book that I'm writing. I cry for you, Canada.
9:389分钟38秒钟I came in 1972 having a professorship with tenure in
9:459分钟45秒钟the United States because I love Canada and I love Vancouver. I'm now almost sorry for this country.
9:539分钟53秒钟I'm glad I'm 92.
9:579分钟57秒钟I'll close by saying this. Thank you for appearing before us today. Uh I hope that when I'm 92 years old, somebody will ask me to come and present here if
10:0510分钟5秒钟I'm fortunate enough to get there. and thank you for your service to Canada as a member of parliament. Appreciate your presence here today. You're welcome.
10:1310分钟13秒钟Thank you. Uh thank you, Professor uh Grubel, and thank you, Mr. Managus. Next.
10:1810分钟18秒钟Thank you, Madam Chair. Uh Professor Grubel, [clears throat] when I was looking at your body of work, your impressive body of work over the years.
10:2610分钟26秒钟It wasn't until later after I'd read some of what what you've been doing that you were a member of Parliament. So, that was a bit of a surprise to me, but I'm happy to um engage with you today.
10:3610分钟36秒钟In your in your policy history, you have tended to focus on fiscal responsibility, uh labor market competition,
10:4410分钟44秒钟infrastructure constraints, and selective economically driven immigration.
10:5010分钟50秒钟Uh I'm from I'm from the Niagara region in Ontario and we see firsthand um how the pressures that you have written
10:5910分钟59秒钟about from housing shortages uh strained infrastructure and employment balancing labor needs with stagnant wages and key sectors.
11:0811分钟8秒钟We've lived that lived reality raises couple of fundamental questions. But I wonder if you could walk the committee through your framework for assessing
11:1711分钟17秒钟what you refer to as net fiscal impact on im of immigration. What variables matter most and how should policymakers interpret those results?
11:3011分钟30秒钟Well, the book you're referring to was published by the Frasier Institute somewhat reluctantly
11:3811分钟38秒钟a co-author uh a an an American who lived long time in Ottawa. It started
11:4811分钟48秒钟off and we got away uh our attention was drawn to the following
11:5411分钟54秒钟fact that when immigrants enter Canada, Statistics Canada finds out that they
12:0312分钟3秒钟have below income that is below
12:1012分钟10秒钟Canadian workers of the same age in education.
12:1412分钟14秒钟And this low income persists for the next 20 years and it never goes
12:2312分钟23秒钟completely away. I don't know whether it's discrimination whatever it is that's a fact and it was getting when we
12:3112分钟31秒钟were writing our book worse every five years statistic Canada showed that it's
12:3812分钟38秒钟gotten worse. At the same time that they settle in Canada, they entitled to all the government benefits that we offer.
12:5012分钟50秒钟And as a result of this, we have also we have progressive income taxation. So that these immigrants with the low
12:5912分钟59秒钟incomes are getting all the benefits which are not tied to income
13:0613分钟6秒钟while the taxes they pay are considerably lower because their incomes are lower. And we calculated that this
13:1613分钟16秒钟was in the 80s several billion dollars worth of costs that immigrants
13:2413分钟24秒钟impose on the rest of Canada that is never mentioned and even then it was disregarded.
13:3213分钟32秒钟We're being we're being hated for pointing out these kinds of things.
13:3713分钟37秒钟People go, "Oh, this is wrong. This is wrong." The numbers are there. Nobody refuted them.
13:4613分钟46秒钟But of course, the popular media didn't like the idea because the mood in Canada at the time was still immigrants
13:5513分钟55秒钟are cannot do any wrong. We need more and more and more. The question is,
14:0114分钟1秒钟do we all want to subsidize as a small businessman in the world?
14:0814分钟8秒钟That's an issue that we ought to discuss.
14:1114分钟11秒钟At the time that I was active in writing, these issues were never discussed. We ought to have people from both sides.
14:2014分钟20秒钟Let let me say so professor I have limited time so I wonder if Yes. Okay. I expected you to interrupt
14:2814分钟28秒钟me otherwise I can't keep going. Uh, professor, critics, uh, say your approach may underweight long-term and
14:3514分钟35秒钟second generation benefits. How do you respond to that? And how should governments balance short-term fiscal impacts with long-term economic gains?
14:4714分钟47秒钟Well, that is a another question that we have to look at. We One minute.
14:5314分钟53秒钟Elon Musk is not typical.
14:5714分钟57秒钟It's it it we have a lot of uh in in the longer run in the longer run that Kane
15:0615分钟6秒钟said. So I I don't know in uh in your view how should Canada determine the right level of immigration
15:1315分钟13秒钟each year. Uh what economic indicators or capacity constraints should guide in those decisions?
15:2015分钟20秒钟Have a group of people like this here.
15:2415分钟24秒钟Listen to those small businessesmen, farmers, even the big companies, the big
15:3215分钟32秒钟manufacturing, a lot of cheap labor, cheap importer labor. We listen to that and listen to guys like me who say that
15:4115分钟41秒钟if you uh always have cheap labor available,
15:4715分钟47秒钟society has no incentive to adopt labor saving devices.
15:5415分钟54秒钟Uh thank you, Professor Grubel, and thank you, Mr. Davies. That is Thank you, Madam Chair. Uh Professor Gubal, uh Canada's productivity has been weakening over the last liberal decade.
16:0416分钟4秒钟investment is fleeing the country like we've never seen before and this is taken out of the Liberal costly credit card budget uh from 2025. So my question
16:1216分钟12秒钟is can radically increasing immigration levels at rates like the Liberals have done in the past few years compensate for poor productivity, weak business investment and low capital formation.
16:2416分钟24秒钟Quite to the contrary, it reduces uh per capita income unless uh they
16:3316分钟33秒钟increase productivity and we don't have the productivity and the productivity is you know
16:4216分钟42秒钟when when California reduced the use the inflow of Mexican
16:4916分钟49秒钟agricultural worker into the valley everybody said it will kill California.
16:5516分钟55秒钟Well, it didn't. Instead of tomatoes being picked by hand, they developed
17:0217分钟2秒钟machines to pick the tomatoes. And the tomatoes didn't taste as good as the ones that they had before. So, what did
17:1117分钟11秒钟they do? They modified genetically the tomatoes so they could stand being to
17:1817分钟18秒钟picked and tasted as good as the ones we had before. Thank you, Mr. Grubel. I'm sorry that we had so little time. Thank you, Mr. Ho.