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Astana Economic Forum 2016: New Economic Reality

已有 305 次阅读2016-6-23 05:29 |个人分类:经济


Towards a New Growth Model
Silk Road Countries’ Forum: Energy, Resources and Sustainable Development
The End of Hyperglobalisation: The New Conditions for Economic and Financial Landscape

Kazakhstan Astana Economic Forum 2016: New Economic Reality

ASTANA, Kazakhstan, May 25, 2016 /CNW/ - The Astana Economic Forum 2016 is to take place in Astana, Kazakhstan on May 25-26. The theme of the AEF - "New economic reality: diversification, innovation and knowledge economy" - is related to global changes in the world determined by the development of a new economic reality and a number of challenges in geopolitics, the economy and financial systems.

To view the Multimedia News Release, please click:
http://www.multivu.com/players/uk/7847451-astana-economic-forum-new-economic-reality/

This year AEF is organized by the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan, the "Economic Research Institute" JSC, and the "Economic Initiatives Fund of Kazakhstan" CF.

The Forum will host 20 events which are focused on four main subthemes: global economy, economic diversification, innovation and technology, and knowledge economy.

AEF 2016 expects 3,000 delegates, including renowned politicians, international economists, Nobel Prize winners, heads of international organizations and representatives of influential media to attend.

The Regional Conference of the International Monetary Fund chaired by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who visited Kazakhstan for the first time, was held on May 24.

The AEF 2016 starts with the "Future Energy: Global Trends and Technologies" session where participants discuss scenarios of global energy development till 2050; "The End of Hyperglobalisation" session organized by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee; and the "Kazakhstan Investment Summit" organized jointly with international magazine The Economist.

The Kazakhstan Privatization Forum co-organized by international publisher The Financial Times will take place on May 26. Being the new item on the AEF agenda, the session will identify new investment opportunities in key sectors of Kazakhstan's economy. The "Regional Think Tank Summit" and the "Great Silk Road Countries" sessions will also be held on May 26.

The Forum's closing event will be the Plenary Session, which, for the first time, will be held in the Kazakhstan Central Concert Hall. The plenary session will be opened by the President of Kazakhstan N.A.Nazarbayev and will be attended by renowned experts, politicians, heads of the largest financial institutions and international organizations, and Nobel Prize winners. Among them are: Jack Ma, founder of the AliBaba Group; Suma Chakrabarti, EBRD President; Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and one of the most influential economists in the world according to The Economist; Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics at MIT, bestselling author; and Roberto Azevedo, WTO Director-General.

The AEF partners: UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, EBRD, ADB, Secretariat of Boao Forum for Asia and others.

(Photo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20160524/371357 )

Video: http://www.multivu.com/players/uk/7847451-astana-economic-forum-new-economic-reality/

SOURCE Astana Economic Forum

For further information: For general queries or further information about the AEF please e-mail pr-media@forum-astana.org or visit http://forum-astana.org

Towards a New Growth Model

Organized by:
Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
JSC “Economic Research Institute”
Joint Vienna Institute

Concept

Several countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) will need a new growth model to restart economic convergence in a fast changing global environment. Following years of extraordinarily high growth rates in commodity exporting countries prior to the global financial crisis, the region may have exhausted easy convergence possibilities. It has recently faced several parallel, possibly long lasting shocks, including growth declines in major trading partners (e.g., Russia and China), plummeting commodity prices, and depreciating exchange rates in the context of a stronger U.S. Dollar. All of these hit commodity exporters particularly hard, and uncertainty around further rises in U.S. policy rates is another challenge.
Estimates of potential growth in the CIS region[1] have declined from above 7 percent, prior to the global financial crisis, to about 3 percent over the medium term. Such significant deceleration is in part driven by the economic recession in Russia and Ukraine, and negative spillover effects on other countries in the region. Potential growth in Kazakhstan has slowed from a pre-crisis 8 per cent to about 4 per cent. 
The panel session, organized in partnership by the Economic Research Institute (ERI) and the Joint Vienna Institute (JVI) will analyze current challenges facing the region and discuss policies to overcome them as well as policies to increase potential growth. More specifically, the session will cover:
• Is there a “New Normal” with low commodity prices and weak growth in trading partners? 
• What is the appropriate policy response to temporary as well as longer-lasting shocks in the region, in terms of fiscal and monetary policies and exchange rate adjustments?
• What is the role of structural reforms in raising potential growth and shifting the gears of economic development? What are reform priorities?
The first session will be organized in the format of a panel with a keynote speech delivered by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, Senior UN advisor and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. The keynote speaker will open the session by analyzing the overall economic situation in the region with particular reference to Kazakhstan and the region’s place in the world economy (25-30 minutes speech). Each consecutive speaker of the panel will address selected challenges and discuss policies (measures, solutions) to overcome these. The discussion will be concluded with a Question and Answer (Q&A) session followed by a coffee break.
After the coffee break, the JVI and ERI will conduct an interactive workshop for officials, researchers and experts from the region to discuss structural reform priorities for the countries in CCA/CIS.
The aim of the workshop will be to identify key structural bottlenecks for the region and suggest reform priorities. There is ample empirical macroeconomic and microeconomic cross-country evidence that structural reforms are beneficial for growth; however, it is less clear what reform priorities should be.
The workshop will be kicked off with short introductory presentations by Aset Irgaliyev, Chairman of Economic Research Institute, and Norbert Funke, Director of Joint Vienna Institute. Areas to be considered include institutions, infrastructure, goods market efficiency, and financial markets. Following the kick-off presentations, participants will split into small groups of about 6-8 people each. Each group will discuss one reform area, with a view to identify three policy recommendations. Following the discussion in small groups, each group will present its findings to other workshop participants. The session will conclude with a general discussion of political economy considerations and implementation constraints.  
The workshop is primarily concerned with identifying reform priorities, promoting partnership, and networking. 

Silk Road Countries’ Forum: Energy, Resources and Sustainable Development

Organized by:
Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
“JSC “Economic Research Institute”
Boao Forum for Asia

Concept

Silk Road Countries Forum, aimed at bringing together policy makers and business representatives from Europe, Asia and Middle East, is one of the main events of the Astana Economic Forum. The Forum will address the most pressing issues related to cooperation of countries located along the historic route that determines overall regional development in the future.
The Forum will first of all address the challenges and prospects of aligning two Eurasian geopolitical projects – The Silk Road Economic Belt and Eurasian Economic Integration. These high-potential initiatives, which aimed at formation of new economic reality for the region, have common directions, interaction of which will contribute to development of more coherent and effective strategy for co-development of countries in the region.
In addition, issues concerning the energy cooperation, particularly relevant in the context of current uncertainty in the global energy market will be discussed during the Forum.
Certain sessions  of the Forum will be focused on issues of infrastructural development of the region, economic cooperation and trade, as well as an increase of production capacities in the framework of joint projects implementation.
The uniqueness of the Forum lies in its relevance and timeliness. The growing interest of the international community to projects aimed at revival of the Silk Road provides a special status to the event.
The upcoming forum will be held with the participation and in  cooperation with Boao Forum for Asia, known as international forum, which brings together the Government leaders, businessmen and representatives of think tanks  from Asia and other continents to address the challenges concerning the economic dynamics of Asia and the World.
The session will bring together the leading experts of China, Russia, Turkey, the Middle East and Central Asia. The representatives of international financial organizations and experts are also expected to participate in the event.

Program

09:00am

Moderator:
Zhou Wenzhong
, Secretary General, Boao Forum for Asia 

Welcome Speech:
Karim Massimov
, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan 
Zeng Peiyan, Vice Premier of China (2003-2008), Vice Chairman of Boao Forum for Asia

09:30am

Session 1: Linking “One belt, one road” with the Eurasian Economic Union and SCO

Key questions:

• The One Belt, One Road Initiative, as proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, connects the EU – one of the most advanced markets – at one end and East Asia – one of the most dynamic growth regions today – at the other. In between are vast expanse of underdeveloped and developing countries in Central Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia. Which opportunities with the initiative offer for these countries?
• Which opportunities will the Eurasian Economic Union, as an ambitious initiative to bring Eurasian economies closer, offer to related countries?
• Where will the two initiatives overlap?
• Is there any way to synchronise these two initiatives so that the aforesaid developing countries benefit from both?
• Long-term forecast for Eurasia: how to change the “economic landscape” of the continent while implementing the Silk Road Economic Belt project?
• The updated agenda for the SCO: will the deepening economic cooperation with the formation of long-term free trade area provide security and guarantee stability in the region?

Moderator:
Veronika Nikishina
, Minister of Trade, EEC

Speakers:
Sven Sester
, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Estonia
Koh Poh Koon, Minister of State for Trade and Industry of the Republic of Singapore
Uldis Augulis, Minister of Transport of the Republic of Latvia
Nematullo Hikmatullozoda, Minister of Economic Development and Trade of the Republic of Tajikistan
Zhang Yansheng, Secretary-General, Academic Council of NDRC
Dmitry Pankin, Chairman of the Management Board, EDB; Deputy Minister of Finance, Russian Federation (2013-2015)

11:30am

Session 2. The Shifting Landscape of Global Energy & Resources

Key questions:
• Looking back on the history of oil, is low oil prices normal or “new normal”?
• Implications for the world economy: good or bad?
• Implications for shale oil/gas production: trigger new and cost-cutting technologies, or force producers into bankruptcy?
• Will low oil prices reverse the new energy revolution?
• How do oil producers diversify economy?
• Energy reform: using the window of opportunity

Moderator:
Yang Xiyu, Vice President, Boao Forum for Asia Institute

Speakers:
Asset Magauov
, Vice Minister of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Vasily Savin, Partner, Head, Department of Investments and Capital Markets, KPMG in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, Head of Power and Utilities
Zhang Yuqing, Vice Minister, National Energy Administration, China
Bolat Akchulakov, CEO, Kazenergy
Alexander Gabuev, Chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program, Carnegie Moscow Center
Zhang Xin, Executive Chairman of the Board, HongKong Group, Chief Manager, CEFC Beijing International Holding Co., Ltd
Alexander Mashkevitch, Chairman, Eurasian Resources Group, S.a.r.l.
Zhang Tingke, Vice President, China Huaneng Group

2:30pm

Session 3. Europe-Asia Cooperation on Production Capacity

Key questions:
• When economy goes down, surplus production capacity stands out as a problem. One solution is to transfer surplus capacity to countries short of and badly in need of such capacity. The Chinese government says this is a win-win solution for China (surplus capacity is utilized) and for recipient countries (more investment, more jobs, more GDP and taxes) alike, and pledge to transfer environment-friendly capacities only.
• China has tried a number of cooperation models. For example, China and France agreed to pool together French technologies (which are advanced) and Chinese equipment (which are cost-effective) to set up shop in a third country. Instead of exporting goods to Kazakhstan, China will move factories and production lines to Kazakhstan and produce such goods locally, which is most welcome for Kazakhstan as this brings jobs, higher income for local people and taxes for the government.
• Setting up industrial parks to accommodate such cooperation: challenges, experiences and lessons.
• Financing arrangements

Moderator:
Zhang Xiaoqiang
, Vice-Minister, NDRC China (2003-2014)

Speakers:
Aidar Arifkhanov
, Vice Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Tatyana Valovaya, Member of the Board (Minister) on the Main Areas of Integration and Macroeconomics, EEC
Radoslaw Domagalski-Labedzki, Vice Minister of Development, Chairman of the Polish part of the Kazakh-Polish Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation
Wang Li, Member of the Advisory Committee of Research and Development International, CASS; Vice President of Alliance of China New Energy Overseas Development
Romano Prodi, Prime Minister of Italy (1996–1998, 2006–2008), President, EC (1999–2004)
Yaroslav Lisovolik, Chief Economist, EDB
Turlybek Mussabayev, General Director, RSE Gosgradkadastr
Zhou Weihong, Chief Economist, China General Nuclear Power Corporation
Sergey Terechshenko, Prime Minister of Kazakhstan (1991-1994)

6:00pm Close

The End of Hyperglobalisation: The New Conditions for Economic and Financial Landscape

Organized by:
JSC “Economic Research Institute”;
Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee

 
Concept

The WORLD 2016 faced with a number of complex challenges in geopolitics, economy and financial system. The global economy is on the threshold of a new world - tectonic and fundamental shifts are happening in its development.
Particular attention will be paid to paradoxes and transformation of global economy, the end of super cycle of commodities prices and the golden decade of emerging markets, slowdown of global trade, the period of low investments and the capital outflow from EMs and developing countries, risks of financial stability, currency wars, their impact on global economic welfare and ways to sustainable globalisation.
The high level session will be jointly organized by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and international organizations.
The idea is to discuss under an overarching theme of the End of Hyperglobalisation, the groundbreaking shifts shaping our regions and respective countries in terms of economic and geopolitical risks and their impact on the sustainable growth. We will pay particular attention to policy options to mitigate spillovers and how we can benefit from the new developments and trends.

Program 

 
  25 May
09:20am

Flagship Session 1. Global and regional context: the end of the super-cycle of commodities prices?
• Global and regional context and challenges
• What instabilities can the low commodities prices raise? Will prices remain low for a sustained period of time? Can we consider it as the new normal? Is this the end of the shale revolution?
• Re-entry of Iran in the Global Energy Market
• Sovereign Wealth Funds under the stress? Budget deficit, Debt growth and currency devaluation
• Perspectives of Central Asia and Kazakhstan: Economic, Financial and Political dimension
• The New growth drivers: Eurasian Economic Union and New Silk Road as a new infrastructure boom

Moderator:  
Massimiliano Castelli
, Managing Director, Head of Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS Global Asset Management

Opening remarks:
Marc Uzan
, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton-Woods Committee

Speakers:
Ayhan Kose
, Director, Development Prospects Group, World Bank
Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Bakhyt Sultanov, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan

11:20am

Flagship Session 2. The Multiple Uncertainties and Volatilities in the Global Economy: Rising Risks of Instability
Key questions:

• Slowdown of global trade growth relative to GDP growth;
• US Monetary Policy normalization of interest rates: a gradual path?
• China’s New Normal: transition from investment and manufacturing to consumption and services
• Global Misallocation of capital, slowdown of investments and capital outflow from EM
• The Brexit dilemma: the major uncertainties for EU and a further drag on the Global economy?
• Interactions between markets and policies What’s new?
• Negative interest rates, the new convention of monetary policy? Currency wars? Implication for the stability of the banking and financial sector
• The return of capital controls?

Moderator:
Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee

Speakers:
Kuandyk Bishimbayev
, Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Jacob Frenkel, Chairman, JP Morgan Chase International, Governor of the Bank of Israel (1991-2000)
Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France (2003-2015), Vice-president of the Executive Board of ECB (1998–2002), Chairman of the Bank for International Settlements
Athanasios Orphanides, Professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management, MIT, Governor of the Bank of Cyprus (2007-2012)

2:30pm

Flagship Session 3. A Growth Reset for Emerging Markets
Key questions:

•  What are the main characteristics and the key drivers of the slowdown?
​•  How are governments and businesses adapting to slow economic growth and what actions need to be taken to catalyze growth?
•  Preventing the resurgence of financial crisis in emerging markets;
•  Deep depreciations of emerging market currencies;
•  How to restart growth for emerging markets under new conditions?
•  Lifting productivity growth: the role of urbanization; 
•  Sustainable capital flow to emerging markets;
•  Use of buffers (SWF reserves and pension funds) and its implications for banks and capital flows;
•  What policy options should implement emerging economies to stabilize growth;
•  New growth model and structural reforms for emerging economies.

Moderator:
Ayhan Kose, Director, Development Prospects Group, World Bank 

Speakers:
Daron Acemoglu
, Professor of Economics, MIT, winner of the 2005 John Bates Clark Medal
Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University
Ivan Miklos, President of economic think - tank M.E.S.A. 10, Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia (1998-2002, 2002-2006, 2010-2012), Minister of Finance of Slovakia (2002-2006, 2010-2012), Euromoney`s Finance Minister of the Year for 2004
Javier Guzman, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
Erik Berglof, Director, Institute for Global Affairs, London School of Economics and Political Science 

4:20pm

Flagship Session 4. Monetary and Financial Challenges in Eurasia
Key questions:

• Policies for strengthening domestic currencies in Caucasus and Central Asia;
• Challenges for Central Asia and Caucasus in implementation of inflation targeting and free float regime;
• How macro prudential should be used in Eurasia?
• What are the implications for the financial and banking sector?
• Current instabilities and the downgrades in countries and banking ratings;
• Managing currency depreciation and currency mismatch: implication to corporate and banking sector of the region;
​• Is the RMB becoming more important in settlements and invoicing currency in Eurasia as a new anchor? What are the consequences for exchange rate regime and policy options?

Moderator:
Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF 

Speakers:
Bembya Khulkhachiev
, Director of the Financial Policy, Eurasian Economic Commission
Juha Kahkonen, Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Turalay Kenc, Professor, Chair of the Irving Fisher committee on Central bank statistics, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey (2011-2016)
Athanasios Orphanides, Professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management, MIT, Governor of the Bank of Cyprus (2007-2012)
Thomas Sargent, Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, 2011 

6:00pm Close
  26 May
08:45am

Key questions:
• What are the conditions for private sector to operate in changing environment: great plunge in commodities prices, WTO membership and Eurasian Economic Union, One Belt One Road initiative;
• Can we consider the One Belt One Road strategy and the Eurasian Economic Union as growth drivers for the region that can lead the investment, technology, industry, private sector involvement, innovation and infrastructure boom?
• Can the New Silk Road be a growth driver for emerging markets and developing countries under the new economic realities?
• How local companies can benefit from increase investment from China? What should be the rules of engagement? Will an investment treaty be needed in the region?
• The role of new financial institutions in investment and private sector development (AIIB, New Development Bank BRICS, Silk Road Fund)
​• What should be done for a new wave of investments for a long-term economic growth? What are the next global economic drivers and how we can bring back the long-term growth?

Flagship Debates: The new business climate for the private sector: what are the rules of the game?

Moderator:
Mattia Romani,
Managing Director, Country and Sector Economics, EBRD

Keynote speech:
Peter Frankopan
, Senior Research Fellow at Worcester College, Oxford and Director of the Oxford Centre for Byzantine Research, Author “The Silk Roads: A New History of the World”

Speakers:
Zhu Surong, Managing Director, Silk Road Fund
Robert Vartevanian, Head of M&A & Financing, KPMG
Wencai Zhang, Vice-President of the Asian Development Bank
Jan Vapaavuori, Vice-President of the European Investment Bank, Minister of Economic Affairs of Finland (2012-2015)
Tatyana Valovaya, Member of the Board (Minister) on the Main Areas of Integration and Macroeconomics, Eurasian Economic Commission
Dmitry Pankin, Chairman, Eurasian Development Bank

12:40pm Close






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