Frank Dec.15 2013 in Canada

 

    Dec. 14 2013, I firstly learnt Mr. Joshua Cooper Ramo from a series of CCTV’s documentary that screened in 2011, which introduces the hard process of China's economic reforms. The link of the video is as follow:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7WY62V7bNo.

    In the documentary, he expressed his views on China's economic development from past to current. Following are some of his remarks in the documentary.
    "One of the lessons China provides is that the kinds of ideas that applicable in one nation aren't necessarily applicable to other nations. The American idea that many American ideas that should just be imported wholesale into other nations is not entirely appropriate. That is one of the lessons in China is that many other American ideas are not appropriate to China."

    "Now one of the ideas is a holistic view that some of the ideas appropriate to some of the nations has been appropriate to other nations is very important. And the conflicted ideas that gets turned into China's rise is the desire to find new approaches to find new things and this desire to continue find ways to continue make hundreds and millions of people out of poverty in itself is just the refocus on kind of the fundamental problems of development."

    "What is the ultimate purpose of development? The ultimate purpose of development ultimately is to improve the quality of people's lives."
    His comments have in-depth and detailed insights into the process of China's economic reform with own independent observation and understanding. It shows his well understanding for China's culture in both of Modern and Ancient.

    He deeply beliieved that an only continuous Ancient Civilization will surely be bound to practice their own unique Modern civilization - Beijing Consensus. 
    I deeply touched by that he can see the bone marrow through the fur of the dazzling phenomenon, while many others just stay on the fur of the phenomenon.
    I dare say that Mr. Joshua Cooper Ramo who is judging the development of China with the philosophy of China, who is watching the Modern Civilization of China by the perspective of Ancient Civilization of China.   

    I happily learnt his book <The Age of the Unthinkable>. 

    In the article <Review of “The Age of the Unthinkable” by Joshua Cooper Ramo> of Sep. 25 2010, the writer said that:

    "Who, you may ask, is Joshua Cooper Ramo? The World Economic Forum in 2005 called him “one of China’s leading foreign-born scholars.”

    "Ramo argues that the rapid changes in the world call for new theories and strategies to deal with them. Specifically, he applies complexity theory from the physical sciences to the social milieu and challenges us to figure out how to deal with the implications."

     "According to complexity theory, some systems evolve into a critical state in which minor disturbances create huge changes. Think of a sandpile, and how the addition of one more grain of sand can set off an avalanche. You can’t predict which grain of sand will do it, no matter how much you control your experiment, because too many factors, internal to the accumulation in the sandpile, would affect the outcome."

     "Ramo suggests that we think of the body politic as a human body; one that needs a healthy immune system to survive. That is, instead of just reacting to events, he advocates the preventive medicine of strength, flexibility, and the capability for quick response and gear-changing. He argues that putting good infrastructure (education, health care, and communication systems) in place is far more efficacious than waiting until a crisis erupts and then trying to catch up. By the time you get solutions in place, he says, the old crisis is over and a new and different one has taken its place."

    "He implores us to learn the habits of connection and a global ethic instead of alienation and isolation. He wants us to open up our ossified bureaucracies and empower people to create and think and act on the local level."

    "Highly decentralized groups, Ramo points out, can 'bend, adjust, and attack based on a far better sense of local conditions than any central commander could ever have.'” 

    I have not read the the book of <The Age of the Unthinkable> yet, however, only some of reviews about the book have firmly confirmed my view on Joshua Cooper Ramo with that "he can see the bone marrow through the dazzling phenomenon."

    The thoughts of Joshua Cooper Ramo prompt us to abandon the traditional dogma and the Cold War mindset, with more flexible keen eye to observe the increasingly complex world, to take realistic measures quickly to solve intractable problems that human is facing and will face.
    I specially collect some of his information to here for the sake of further studying about him. 
                                 --- Frank Dec.15 2013 in Canada

 Joshua Cooper Ramo

Joshua Cooper Ramo 乔舒亚·库珀·雷默

From Wikipedia, last modified on 24 November 2013 at 05:35

Photo by Joi Ito
Born	New Mexico USA
Known for	Beijing Consensus, The Age of the Unthinkable

Joshua Cooper Ramo was a former senior editor and foreign editor of Time magazine and later Vice Chairman at Kissinger Associates, the consulting firm of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.^[1]

Ramo was raised in Los Ranchos, New Mexico, on the Rio Grande.^[2] He began flying in his late teens and wrote a book about his experiences as a competitive aerobatic pilot.^[3]

He joined TIME in 1996 as the youngest senior editor in the magazine's history and went on to become its foreign editor and assistant managing editor. He is a member of the World Economic Forum's Global Leaders of Tomorrow, the Asia Society's Asia21 group, as well as a Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute and a cofounder of the U.S.-China Young Leaders Forum. Ramo is a member of the Board of Directors ofStarbucks and FedEx.^[4]

Ramo is well known for inventing the term "Beijing Consensus" through a paper he wrote in 2004 of that title.^[5] He also served as on-air analyst for NBC during the 2008 Beijing Olympics and shared an Emmyand Peabody award for his work on the Opening Ceremony alongside Matt Lauer and Bob Costas.

He is also the author of New York Times best-selling The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do about It^[6][7] and No Visible Horizon: Surviving the World's Most Dangerous Sport.^[8]

Writings on China

In 2004, Ramo published "Beijing Consensus", which identified a "China model" of economic development.^[3]

In 2006, Ramo conducted an extensive analysis of China's international image, relying on surveys of more than 25,000 people around the world in 40 countries, including China.^[9]

In 2010, Ramo introduced the concept of "Co-evolution" as a future model for US-China relations. Ramo argued that US-China relations had entered a new era where old ideas such as "containment" or "engagement" no longer made sense. He articulated a new model for ties between the two countries.

Beijing Consensus

From Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org  5 December 2013

Beijing Consensus is a term that represents an alternative economic development model to theWashington Consensus of market-friendly policies promoted by the IMF, World Bank and U.S. Treasury, often for guiding reform in developing countries.^[1] While there is no precise definition of the Beijing Consensus, although many have laid out plans, the term has evolved into one describing alternative plans for economic development in the underdeveloped world, so-named as China is seen as a potential model for such actions.^[2]

Joshua Cooper Ramo

The term's birth into the mainstream political lexicon was in 2004 when the United Kingdom's Foreign Policy Centre published a paper by Joshua Cooper Ramo titled The Beijing Consensus. [2] In this paper, he laid out three broad guidelines for economic development. Ramo was a former senior editor and foreign editor of Time magazine and later a partner at Kissinger Associates, the consulting firm of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.^[3]

The first guideline involves a "commitment to innovation and constant experimentation." One of the major criticisms of the Washington Consensus is its complacency. Ramo argues that there is no perfect solution, and that the only true path to success is one that is dynamic, as no one plan works for every situation.^[3]

The second guideline states that Per Capita Income (GDP/capita) should not be the lone measure of progress. Rather, Ramo feels that the sustainability of the economic system and an even distribution of wealth, along with GDP, are important indicators of progress.^[3]

The third guideline urges a policy of self-determination, where the less-developed nations use leverage to keep the superpowers in check and assure their own financial sovereignty. This includes not only financial self-determination, but also a shift to the most effective military strategy, which Ramo suggests is more likely to be an asymmetric strategy rather than one that seeks direct confrontation. Unlike the Washington Consensus, which largely ignored questions of geo-politics, Ramo argues—particularly in the Chinese context—that geo-politics and geo-economics are fundamentally linked.

The critic on Ramo's plan

Arif Dirlik - University of Oregon professor, a "notable specialist in Chinese and in intellectual history," who is a critic on Ramo's plan. He wrote the paper Beijing Consensus: Beijing "Gongshi." Who Recognizes Whom and to What End. Although Dirlik is intrigued by the concepts and philosophy of Ramo's Beijing Consensus, he says that Ramo's plan is a "Silicon Valley model of development" that ignores the fact that the exploitation of China's labor force by foreign countries was a major part of the Chinese development.^[3] Ultimately though, and despite other criticism, Dirlik concludes that the Beijing Consensus does serve an important goal: "The most important aspect of the Beijing Consensus may be an approach to global relationships that seeks, in multinational relationships, a new global order founded on economic relationships, but which also recognizes political and cultural difference as well as differences in regional and national practices within a common global framework."

----------------------------

China's nominal GDP trend from 1952 to 2005. Note the rapid increase since reform in the late 1970s.  

   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Prc1952-2005gdp.gif

乔舒亚·库珀·雷默(Joshua Cooper Ramo)，美国著名中国问题专家，现任基辛格咨询公司常务董事，曾担任约翰·桑顿办公室主管合伙人、高盛公司高级顾问、清华大学访问教授，2004年提出著名的“北京共识”。

互动百科 http://www.baike.com/wiki/

     现任基辛格咨询公司常务董事的雷默主要负责北京办公室的事务，经常往返于纽约和北京之间。2004年，当时在英国外交政策研究中心任职的雷默，提出描述中国独特发展模式的“北京共识”，在西方引起强烈反响，因为这个概念挑战在西方流行15年的“华盛顿共识”（Washington Consensus）。多年来，强调市场自由与民主政治的“华盛顿共识”，被西方一些人当作“灵丹妙药”，一直试图向全球推广。  
     “北京共识”的出现，打破了这种迷思。“北京共识”强调三点：一、对于改革创新和不断试验的承诺；二、GDP不是社会进步唯一衡量标准，经济可持续性和财富平等分配更重要；三、政策自决和金融主权，欠发达国家对强权的牵制。  
      显然“北京共识”是对西方主导模式的反叛，对一些发展中国家更有吸引力，有人将之与“中国模式”划上等号。西方有人担忧这为那些“专制国家”找到借口，而一些中国人认为，所谓“北京共识”似乎更像中国的目标，而不是中国的现实。   

     雷默在接受早报记者专访时承认，“北京共识”和“中国模式”确实存在很大争议，但他认为，这个概念对今天的中国依然有效。他说：“观察今后中国政治经济发展，最重要的是发现一种以中国现实为背景的有效观念。‘北京共识’不是抛弃‘中国模式’，以全世界共同认同的观念取代它，而是如何使‘中国模式’更好地容纳它们。”  
      雷默据此提出“后中国特色”的新概念，即中国需要真正源自本土并适应本土的观念，因此解放思想非常重要，这样才能让中国人探索和发现自己的模式。与此同时，政治改革也愈显重要。他说：“我不相信政治改革必须走西方的模式，它必须是中国自己的设想。”雷默预计，中国政治改革很可能像经济改革那样，走循序渐进、逐渐摸索的道路，有可能先从中共党内民主开始。  
     他也对中国强调稳定表示理解，他说：“稳定是中国人最希望，也是觉得最重要的，却是最难的，因为未来中国有许多不确定的因素。我们必须关注需要什么样的稳定，稳定的性质和动力所在。”他指出，以前大家认为中央集中式的治理模式最有利于稳定，而现代实践却证明，合理分权更有利于稳定。  
      他强调，其实“北京共识”最核心的意义在于：每个国家要选择最适合自己的发展模式，巴西模式与中国模式就不一样，不能只有“华盛顿共识”。“华盛顿共识”的基本思想就是一个模式通用不同国家，成为包治百病的灵丹妙药。他说：“当今世界每个国家要发现它自己的解决方案，不同的病人要有不同的药方。世界经济的多元化将更强壮、更具活力。” 

     雷默还注意到，新中国建国61年，国际影响力日益提高，中国民众的自信心和自豪感空前高涨。但另一方面，政治制度、意识形态、价值观念、发展模式上的差异，使得西方国家在惊叹中国崛起的同时，也害怕中国成为强权，颠覆现存国际秩序，害怕“中国模式”取代“普世观念”。由此带来中国国际形象在中国和西方民众心目中形成巨大反差。  
     对中国国际形象演变颇有研究的他指出，中西对中国国际形象的反差集中体现于：“中国到底是不是一个值得信任的国家？”中国人经常抱怨，自己国家过去多年取得非凡进步，西方国家却视而不见；中国不干预别国内政，只想办好自己的事情，西方国家却指责中国搞利己主义、重商主义，不愿承担责任；中国要维护自己国家的统一，西方国家却经常拿台湾、西藏、新疆问题说事。这到底是为什么？  
      雷默分析，主要有四大原因：第一，中国是一个大而复杂的国家，本身就不易理解，而现在中国变化又太快了，快得连中国人自己有时都感到迷惑，更何况是没有足够时间认识中国的西方人。第二，中国的政治体系表述与西方传统意义上的观念不同，让他们觉得难以理解，从而销蚀了信任感。第三，在台湾、西藏、新疆以及朝鲜等热点问题上，中国的行为方式与西方不同，中西在价值观上有很大差异。第四是在经济、军事上存在的利益之争和认识分歧。  
     为了帮助西方人更加全面地认识中国，中国官方近年加强了对外宣传和国际公关的力度，不过著名中美关系专家王缉思曾指出，中国国际形象终究还是取决于国内形象，自己老百姓对国内政策和社会现象满意了，中国国际形象自然也就随之改善。  
     北京奥运会时担任NBC特约评论员的雷默表示，同意王缉思的看法。他指出，中国改善国际形象的挑战在于，如何尽力让西方觉得她是值得信任的。比如在非洲的投资，中国要让非洲人民相信，它不只是去获得资源，把东西拿回家，也在帮助当地建医院、学校，帮助当地全面发展。 
     他说：“有些人可能认为经济发展是最重要的，过去30年改革开放的成就确实证明了这一点，但只有经济发展是不够的，还需要文化、教育、医疗的发展。这也是‘北京共识’的题中应有之义。”  
     对于中国媒体想提高话语权，雷默建议，加强透明度非常重要。另外，中国有辉煌的历史，令人羡慕，但这对提高当今中国的国际形象起的作用不大，中国应当更多着眼于现在和未来，告诉国际社会它未来的走势。遗憾的是，一些官方媒体仍然是以旧的方式进行宣传，难免效果不大。  
     雷默强调，中西价值观矛盾带来的对中国国际形象判断的大相径庭，是中国崛起过程中最大的战略挑战之一。他认为，由此带来民众情绪对立的可能性是存在的，但未必会上升到政治层面的冲突，关键在于决策者要有全新的思维，作出战略性的抉择。

      雷默出版了新书《不可思议的时代》（The Age of the unthinkable），指出世界正在发生前所未有的变化，不能依靠传统的模式和思维来解决国际问题，需要新的观念、新的机制。  
      雷默指出，这同样适用于中美关系。以往中美关系的模式就是谈判、签约，基本上只是一种策略性的、由官僚机构实施的、可操作性的关系，因此双方难免都采取有时合作、有时牵制的手段。而且目前中美关系的概念和走向基本上还是由美方来定义和主导，从帮助中国加入世贸组织，到要求中国成为负责任的“利益攸关方”，都是如此。“战略与经济对话”还没有摆脱这种窠臼，具有操作性，但不是为解决核心问题而设，对真正建立美中战略关系要求来说依然不够。 
       雷默强调，随着中国成为更成熟的国家，现在已经到了重新考虑中美关系，建立真正基于信任的战略合作伙伴关系的时候了。这需要决策者有基辛格和周恩来那样的既有历史性，又有前瞻性的创造性思维，需要战略概念。  
       雷默指出，美中需要一种富有想像力的创造性方法，使两国关系从不太稳定到承诺成为朋友的转化。他说：“不要以为国家利益永恒不变，国际事务其实变化是很快的。”他强调，当前美中两国要避免一些突发危机，使两国变得很难合作。他说：“两国关系最大的风险并不是两国之间可能爆发战争，而是在一些重大全球事务上不合作。”

      建国60年大庆长假后第一个工作周，或许是一个更适合冷静思考中国未来发展的时刻。站在新的历史起点上，它会如何继续前进，过程会不会像过去60年一样艰难曲折，2049年新中国建国100年的时候，中国会怎么样？这些疑问都有待时间解答。 
       正如执政党的总书记胡锦涛在阅兵讲话时所言，历史启示我们，前进道路从来不是一帆风顺的。事实上，中国经济并不像看上去那么稳固，它在很大程度上靠政府投资推动，但这是不可持续的。一个更令人吃惊的数字是，就人均GDP而言，中国目前仍排在全球100名之后。根据IMF的数据，2008年，中国的排名位于佛得角和亚美尼亚之后，仅在伊拉克和刚果共和国之前。残酷的金融危机也告诉我们，真正的实力不属于那些拥有外汇储备最多的国家，而是那些可以轻松以本币借款的政府。毕竟，美国从哪里借钱呢？中国。 
      此外，社会矛盾加剧、群体性事件增多、拉萨3·14事件和乌鲁木齐7·5事件的发生，也都在警醒人们，未来的道路很艰难。单就外交而言，中国是否已做好准备承担更多的国际责任？外交政策决策者与民众是否会在头脑发热或民粹蠢动之间游移？ 
      在人类历史上，从来没有出现一个如此庞大的国家朝着一个目标高速奔驰，也从来没有一个政府领导过13亿人口共同致富。换言之，任何国家的任何成功经验和模式，都不足以帮助中国应付它独有的问题。中国只能继续自主地探索，包括从自身经验和自身文明中，寻找克服现实问题的智慧。 
        2009年的中国处在繁荣与危机同在的复杂微妙时刻。中国正面临很好的机遇，也面临艰难的选择。

      雷默认为：这是一个外表平静但暗流涌动的年代，危险隐藏于难以想象的地方。正如“沙堆效应”一样，全球政治秩序就像一个沙堆，每天都会掉下来新的沙粒，可能是新的病毒、新的NGO、新的发明创造……任何情况都可能让沙堆越来越不稳定。这个世界正在发生前所未有的变化，不能依靠传统的模式和思维来解决国际问题，需要新的观念，新的机制。 
      随着中国成为更成熟的国家，现在已经到了重新考虑中美关系，建立真正基于信任的战略合作伙伴关系的时候了。这需要决策者有基辛格和周恩来那样既有历史，又有前瞻性的创造性的思维，需要战略概念。 
     在谈到一国的发展模式时，雷默表示，每个国家需要选择适合自己的发展模式，中国正处在这个繁荣与危机同在的复杂微妙时刻。中国正面临很好的机遇，也面临艰难的选择，据此雷默提出“后中国特色”的新概念，即中国需要真正源自本土并适应本土的观念，因此解放思想非常重要。他说：“我不相信政治改革必须走西方模式，它必须是中国自己的设想。” 他预计，中国的政治改革很可能像经济改革那样，走循序渐进、逐渐摸索的道路，有可能先从中共党内民主开始。 
      他对中国目前开始追求可持续增长表示赞许，他认为，过去那种单纯追求GDP数字增长的做法没有意义。一国的发展水平与很多因素有关，只看GDP是将复杂的问题简单化了。 
     雷默还强调，后中国时代，只有大胆改革、不断创新才能缔造中国的无限商机与转变。他十分肯定中国在创新方面取得的成就，“这种创新并不是简单的拷贝西方，而是引进、借鉴一些西方的经验，并融合本土的文化经验，混搭出来的产物。”雷默称，这种混搭已经有了浓重的中国特色，“比如腾讯的qq和搜狐这种门户网站就是中国所独有的创新，这种颇具中国特色的创新从很多小事上都能看到。”他随手拿起了新作《不可思议的年代》的中文版解释说：“将我过去的作品《北京共识》附在这本新作后一同出版的这种做法是外国所没有的，这也是中国的独创。” 
      雷默指出，当今是一个充满混搭色彩的变异时代。人民战争与人体炸弹混搭在一起，产生了无坚不摧的真主党。民航客机与恐怖分子混搭在一起，造就了攻强守弱的911事件。住房抵押贷款与证券化混搭在一起，勾兑出破坏力巨大的次贷危机。混搭使得这个世界充满的不确定性，充满了不可思议。 
      “为了在这个不可思议的年代生存，我们必须在不可思议的地方向不可思议的人们学习不可思议的创新。我们应该向开发电子游戏的大师任天堂的宫本茂学习；向以色列最出色的情报部门主管法卡什学习；向真主党学习；向中国古代的军事家学习；向南非的艾滋病人学习，我们必须建立一套免疫系统。在这个复杂系统中，所有的事物都会发生普遍联系，而我们要学会的，是把已经存在的不同事物融合、搭配，创造出全新的东西。”雷默在书中如是写道。^[1]