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Tristin Hopper:卡尼发布大量"战略计划",却收效甚微

已有 14 次阅读2026-8-15 09:49 |个人分类:Tristin Hopper

Tristin Hopper:卡尼发布大量"战略计划",却收效甚微

Tristin Hopper: Carney is releasing tons of 'strategic plans,' with few results

马克·卡尼战略计划1:2026年6月11日星期四,加拿大总理马克·卡尼在多伦多安大略食品终端宣布了其政府的加拿大食品安全计划。(图片来源:Peter Power/Postmedia News)

如果说在过去几个月里,马克·卡尼总理在联邦治理方面有什么真正“出色”之处,那就是他发布了大量篇幅冗长、制作精良的“战略”,其中充斥着“大胆”和“雄心勃勃”之类的词汇。

2026年,卡尼总理至少发布了六项此类计划,主题涵盖食品安全到自然环境等方方面面。

对这一趋势最常见的批评是,所有战略读起来都像竞选纲领。它们充满了对未来的宏伟愿景,但往往缺乏具体细节。

相反的观点是,政府偶尔展现“战略愿景”也是有价值的。例如,加拿大铀矿开采行业就公开表示,卡尼政府发布的《核能战略》让他们的工作变得更加轻松。

以下简要介绍联邦战略新黄金时代正在涌现的成果。

核能战略

众所周知,时任总理贾斯汀·特鲁多领导的政府偶尔会发表声明或预算指令,大力宣传加拿大核能产业。例如,2024年联邦预算承诺将加拿大打造成为“全球核能领导者”,并支持“小型模块化反应堆”的研发。

然而,在大多数情况下,加拿大成熟的核能技术被边缘化,联邦政府更倾向于推进太阳能、风能和其他可再生能源的发展项目。

因此,一份联邦政府报告的出现,对加拿大核电站大加赞扬并承诺建造更多核电站,自然受到了原子能行业的热烈欢迎,因为卡尼政府通常掌握着这些项目能否获批的最终决定权。

该战略的其中一部分承诺“在加拿大境内建造多达十座新的大型反应堆”。另一部分则承诺“在2024年至2035年间将铀出口量翻一番”。

但正如如今几乎所有来自渥太华的文件一样,就连这份核能战略也必须包含几行关于和解的内容。加拿大的核能战略必须“增加原住民在核能项目中的实质性参与,包括股权合作和能力建设”。

国家粮食安全战略

这份战略于6月11日发布,就在一周后,加拿大统计局证实,加拿大食品杂货的价格上涨速度超过了其他任何商品。

这份长达27页的战略花了大量篇幅重复阐述问题。第三页宣称“加拿大未来的粮食安全将取决于我们能否建立一个食品价格更实惠的体系。”第五页指出,食品价格上涨“使得许多加拿大人及其家庭更难以可负担的价格获得充足的营养食品。”

至于如何解决这些问题,《国家粮食安全战略》提出了两项​​建议:“更多选择”和“更多控制”。该战略总结道:“更多的选择和控制意味着更多的加拿大。”

与许多其他战略一样,该战略并未包含任何新的政府政策。它只是列举了一系列现有的联邦措施,这些措施可能有助于降低食品价格,包括今年夏天暂停征收燃油消费税。

加拿大国防工业战略

这无疑是各种战略中最严肃的一项。这份于二月发布的报告详细列出了目标(发展加拿大军事工业),并为此目标制定了预算(到2035年达到1800亿加元),甚至明确了负责实现该目标的机构(一个名为国防工业局的新机构)。

此外,国防采购领域恰恰是渥太华以书面形式公布未来计划非常有益的领域之一。正如报告所述,“加拿大工业面临的根本挑战之一是缺乏清晰、可预测的需求信号以及政府的承诺。”

因此,该战略发出了一个“清晰、长期的需求信号”,确保加拿大军工承包商在采购方面不再那么反复无常。

在《金融邮报》发表的一篇评论文章中,退役海军军官马克·诺曼中将对该计划给予了高度评价,他认为该计划的主要不足之处在于,加拿大可能缺乏实施这项“加拿大近几十年来最具雄心的产业政策”所需的12.5万名技术工人。

国家人工智能战略

这份于6月8日发布的报告副标题是“人人享有人工智能”。其核心思想是,加拿大应该在更多领域应用人工智能,并且应该让人工智能更加友好,以消除人们对其应用的担忧。其座右铭是“安全、可靠和自主的人工智能”。

为此,该战略的多个章节专门探讨了人工智能将如何帮助加拿大实现其各项“公平”和和解目标。

该战略承诺“确保原住民在本地和国际人工智能发展中拥有自主权”,并警告“人工智能对寻求公平群体造成的伤害不成比例地增加”。

“鉴于我们多元文化的社会,我们对待人工智能的方式必须承认并支持这种丰富的多样性,”战略中写道。

目前,人工智能行业由OpenAI和Anthropic等大型公司主导。《国家人工智能战略》将这些供应商斥为“霸权主义者和超大规模企业”,并承诺转而资助加拿大人工智能行业的发展,使其更加友善、公平,并尊重“我们的习俗、历史和文化遗产”。

《海象》杂志发表了一篇专题文章,总结了所有反对该战略的人工智能专家的观点。他们的主要批评在于,这种做法鼓励人们普遍采用新技术,并承诺联邦政府会确保该技术按预期运行。正如一位批评者所说:“现在,我们鼓励人们先体验飞行,然后再考虑安全带,并且接受飞行有时会完全随机地飞向某个地方。”

自然之力:加拿大的自然保护战略

该战略尤其侧重于诸如“自然是我们日常生活的一部分”、“自然是加拿大身份认同的基石”以及“自然支撑着我们大部分的经济繁荣”之类的宣言。

此前,自由党政府在自然保护方面做出一些可衡量的承诺,但很快就后悔了。最好的例子是2019年提出的到2030年种植20亿棵树的承诺。然而,渥太华只完成了十分之一,该计划便在2025年迅速被取消。

加拿大的《自然保护战略》避免了这种情况,它只承诺联邦政府要履行三个模糊的“支柱”:“保护加拿大的自然环境”、“建设加拿大美好未来”以及“重视自然并调动资本”。

该战略声称,通过坚持这三个支柱,加拿大将“取得成果”。

加拿大电气化经济国家战略

这项于5月发布的电力战略的主要意义在于,它标志着自由党政府正式放弃了此前不遗余力地将所有化石燃料从电网中清除的战略。《加拿大电气化经济国家战略》承认,在未来几十年里,加拿大很可能仍将使用天然气发电。

否则,这份报告读起来更像是智库发布的愿望清单,而不是一个拥有空前权力、能够真正建设电力基础设施的政府的立场文件。

报告指出,鉴于目前的趋势,加拿大到2050年必须实现“比现在多一倍的电力供应”。但至于如何实现这一目标,该战略中并没有提出任何新的政策。

报告中提及的任何具体政府措施,都是渥太华原本就在做的事情。例如:“加拿大政府将……继续优先考虑支持电力系统发展的国家利益项目。”

报告最后总结道,读者应该从《加拿大电气化经济国家战略》中记住三点:“现在是行动的时候了”、“现在是放眼未来的时候了”以及“现在是携手合作的时候了”。

联邦政府发布核能战略,承诺新建多达10座核反应堆。

卡尼发布人工智能战略之际,保守党和新民主党警告称,该战略未能安抚焦虑不安的加拿大人。

Tristin Hopper: Carney is releasing tons of 'strategic plans,' with few results

Tristin Hopper 

Mark-Carney-strategic-plan-1Prime Minister Mark Carney announces his government's Canadian food security program at the Ontario Food Terminal in Toronto on Thursday, June 11, 2026. (Credit: Peter Power/Postmedia News)

If there's one aspect of federal governance in which Prime Minister Mark Carney has really excelled in these last few months, it's in the publication of lengthy, high-production "strategies" liberally spiced with words such as "bold" and "ambitious."

The year 2026 has yielded no less than six such plans, on topics ranging from food security to nature.

The easy criticism of the trend is that the strategies all read like campaign platforms. They're filled with grand visions of the future, but are often very short on specifics.

The counterpoint is that it can occasionally be valuable for a government to signal a "strategic vision." The Canadian uranium mining sector, for instance, publicly said their job was made easier by the Carney government's release of a Nuclear Energy Strategy.

Below, a quick guide to what is being produced in this new golden age of federal strategies.

The Nuclear Energy Strategy

The government of then prime minister Justin Trudeau was known to occasionally issue statements or budget directives touting the Canadian nuclear sector. The 2024 federal budget, for instance, pledged to make Canada a "global nuclear leader" and support the development of "small, modular reactors."

For the most part, however, Canada's well-developed nuclear competency was largely sidelined in favour of federal programs boosting solar, wind and other renewables.

So the mere existence of a federal report raving about Canadian nuclear power plants and promising to make more of them was heartily welcomed by the atomic sector, as the Carney government generally holds the reins on whether these projects get approved.

One section of the strategy pledged to "enable construction of up to ten new large-scale reactors within Canada." Another to "double uranium exports from 2024 to 2035."

But as with virtually any document out of Ottawa these days, even the nuclear strategy had to include a few lines about reconciliation. Canada's nuclear strategy must "increase meaningful Indigenous participation in nuclear projects, including equity partnerships and capacity-building."

The National Food Security Strategy

This strategy was released on June 11, just a week before Statistics Canada would confirm that Canadian groceries were rising in price faster than any other commodity.

The 27-page strategy spends a lot of time simply restating the problem. Page three declares "Canada's future food security will be based on our ability to build a system where food is more affordable." Page five says that rising food prices are "making it harder for many Canadians and their families to access sufficient nutritious food at an affordable price."

As to how all of this might be remedied, the National Food Security Strategy has two recommendations: "More choice" and "more control." "Greater choice and control will mean More Canada," it concludes.

In a theme running across many of these strategies, it contains no new government policy. Rather, it's simply a laundry list of existing federal actions that may help deliver cheaper food, including this summer's suspension of the Fuel Excise Tax.

Canada's Defence Industrial Strategy

This is easily the most serious of the various strategies. Released in February, it itemizes a goal (build out the Canadian military industry), lays out a budget for that goal ($180 billion by 2035), and even specifies who will be responsible for achieving that goal (a new body called the Defence Industrial Agency).

What's more, defence procurement is one area in which it's actually quite useful for Ottawa to release something in writing declaring its plans for the future. As the report states, "one of the fundamental challenges facing Canadian industry has been the lack of clear and predictable demand signals and commitments from government."

The strategy is thus a "clear, long-term demand signal" assuring Canadian military contractors will no longer be as flaky on procurement.

In a critique published in the Financial Post, retired naval officer Vice-Admiral Mark Norman mostly had praise for the plan, saying its main drawback was only that Canada may not have the 125,000 skilled workers necessary to deliver what was otherwise "the most ambitious industrial policy this country has produced in a generation."

The National Artificial Intelligence Strategy

The subtitle of this report, released June 8, is "AI for all." The gist is that Canada should have more AI in more places, and that such AI should be made nicer to alleviate fears about its adoption. The motto is "safe, reliable, and sovereign AI."

To this end, several sections are devoted towards how artificial intelligence will help Canada reach its various "equity" and reconciliation goals.

The strategy promises to "ensure Indigenous peoples have agency in shaping AI development locally and internationally," and warns of "the disproportionate exposure and impacts of AI harms to equity-seeking groups."

"Given our diverse and multicultural society, our approach to AI must acknowledge and support this rich diversity," it reads.

The artificial intelligence sector is currently dominated by major firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic. The National Artificial Intelligence Strategy dismisses these providers as "hegemons and hyperscalers," and pledges to instead help subsidize the development of a Canadian AI sector that will be kind, equitable and respectful to "our customs, our history, and our heritage."

The Walrus magazine published an entire feature summing up all the AI experts who hated the strategy. Their basic critique being that it encourages universal adoption of a new technology on the promise that the federal government will ensure said technology works as intended. As one said, "right now, we are encouraging people to fly, adding harnesses later, and accepting that sometimes the flight just goes somewhere completely random."

A Force of Nature: Canada's Strategy to Protect Nature

This strategy is particularly heavy on declarative statements such as "nature is part of our daily lives," "nature is foundational to Canadian identity" and "nature underpins much of our economic prosperity."

In prior instances where the Liberal government made measurable promises on conservation, they quickly came to regret them. The best example being a 2019 promise to plant two billion trees by 2030. Ottawa managed just one tenth of that before the program was quickly scrapped in 2025.

Canada's Strategy to Protect Nature avoids this by committing the federal government only to three vague "pillars": "Protecting nature in Canada," "building Canada well," and "valuing nature and mobilizing capital."

By adhering to all three pillars, Canada will "achieve results," it reads.

A National Strategy for an Electrified Canadian Economy

Released in May, the main takeaway from the electricity strategy was that it marked an official break with the Liberal government's prior strategy of relentlessly purging any and all fossil fuels from the electricity grid. The National Strategy for an Electrified Canadian Economy acknowledges that Canada will likely be making electricity out of natural gas for decades to come.

Otherwise, the report reads like a wish list published by a think tank, rather than a position paper from a government with unprecedented powers to actually build out electrical infrastructure.

The report says that, given current trends, Canada must deliver "twice as much power as it does today" by 2050. But as to how this will be done, there's no new policy in the strategy.

Anytime some specific government measure is cited, it's something that Ottawa was doing anyway. One example: "The Government of Canada will … continue to prioritize projects of national interest that support electricity system growth."

In a conclusion, readers are told to register three takeaways from the National Strategy for an Electrified Canadian Economy: "It is time to act," "it is time to think big" and "it is time to work together."


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