注册 登录
滑铁卢中文论坛 返回首页

风萧萧的个人空间 https://www.kwcg.ca/bbs/?61910 [收藏] [复制] [分享] [RSS]

日志

剑桥 Dr. Jostein Hauge 解读世界为何需要中国

已有 12 次阅读2026-4-27 08:33 |个人分类:英国

剑桥 Dr. Jostein Hauge 解读世界为何需要中国

Cambridge Economist Explains Why the World Needs China

Cyrus Janssen  2025年2月26日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWzCZvgzqGU 


剑桥经济学家解读世界为何需要中国

Cyrus Janssen 2025年2月26日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWzCZvgzqGU

2025年的中国究竟是什么?今天,我邀请到了剑桥大学政治经济学家约斯坦·豪格博士。他著有《工厂的未来:大趋势如何改变工业化》一书,其研究成果主要探讨了中国的崛起及其对全球经济的影响。在今天的节目中,我们将揭穿中国“产能过剩”的迷思,探讨中国在世界贸易组织中的角色,并解释中国为何有望在2030年占据全球工业产值的45%。您还将了解到中国如何成为全球增长最快的汽车生产国,以及中国的可再生能源产业如何为世界带来希望。

0:00 - 2025年的中国概览

2:10 - 中国经济转型为何如此重要?

3:20 - 中国人均预期寿命高于美国

4:20 - 中美贸易战

6:03 - 中国产能过剩的神话

9:50 - 关税为何对美国的伤害大于对中国的伤害

13:13 - 对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税?

15:25 - 中国与世界贸易组织

17:53 - 中国如何主导汽车行业

20:03 - 中国电动汽车如何改变中国

21:49 - 中国的真实经济状况

23:45 - 中国政府的运作方式

25:00 - 美国民主的问题

26:17 - 中国为何如此不同

28:53 - 中国的科技生态系统

31:26 - 工厂的未来

33:20 - 可再生能源领域的领导者

34:12 - 总结

2025年的中国概览

我们往往理想化地将西方民主奉为理想的民主典范,但实际上它们存在诸多缺陷。美国是完美的民主国家吗?并非如此。亿万富翁在美国拥有巨大的影响力。美国的民主制度并非一人一票,更像是“一美元一票”。中国的产业政策和长期规划比许多西方国家要容易得多,因为他们没有……必须经历这些政治转型,这将颠覆过去的一切。这是尹哈加博士,一位来自剑桥大学的政治经济学家。


他著有《工厂的未来:大趋势如何改变工业化》一书。他的大部分研究都探讨了中国的崛起及其对全球经济的影响。西方媒体常常未能理解关于中国的真相。举个例子,看看《纽约时报》的这篇标题为“她让世界为中国的错误买单”的文章。


文章认为,中国的制造业主导地位对世界来说是一个问题,中国的崛起扭曲了全球贸易。但这当然与事实相去甚远。事实是,世界从中国的崛起中获益匪浅,尤其是我们这些消费者,仅在2024年就从中国进口了价值超过4800亿美元的商品。何博士对这篇文章的回应一针见血。这篇文章迎合了美国日益高涨的反华情绪,试图将中国描绘成“恶魔”。实际上,我们唯一能指责中国的,就是它挑战了我们。在今天的节目中,我们将揭穿中国产能过剩的神话,探讨中国在世界贸易组织中的角色,并解释中国如何有望在2030年占全球工业产值的45%。在本期节目中,您将了解到中国如何成为增长最快的汽车制造国,以及中国的可再生能源行业如何为世界带来希望。如果您真的想了解中国的真相,那么这期节目就是为您准备的。让我们开始吧!教授,非常感谢您收听我们的“真知灼见”节目,很高兴能与您交流。


为什么中国的经济转型如此重要?


谢谢。太好了!我想先从这个话题开始我们的对话,因为我知道你经常在推特上谈论中国,这对我来说很有意思,因为你有很多推文都非常支持中国的经济转型。作为一名政治经济学家,你知道为什么中国的转型对你如此重要,但你认为世界对中国有哪些误解呢?首先,我认为,如果你从发展经济学的角度来看待中国过去几十年的转型,你会发现这简直令人惊叹。几十年前,中国还相当贫穷,而现在,虽然人均GDP不算特别高,但增长非常显著,而且中国在多个全球产业中处于领先地位。在过去的50年里,中国让比世界其他国家加起来还要多的人摆脱了贫困,引领着可再生能源和制造业的发展。还有很多其他方面,我可以列举很多。所以,仅仅从经济发展的角度来看,研究经济发展就非常了不起。是的,我很喜欢你的推文。你发给你的信息中提到过,中国的预期寿命比美国高,例如,中国的预期寿命比美国高。


你知道,与美国相比,尽管中国的人均收入只有美国的六分之一左右,但我认为这也是一个相当惊人的数据。是的,当然,这非常了不起。我不确定这更多地说明了中国的优势,还是更多地说明了美国的医疗体系的优势。你知道,在收入如此低的情况下,预期寿命却能取得如此巨大的增长,这说明中国在资源配置方面效率很高。是的,这很有意思。因为你知道,我来自美国,我们这里当然有医疗保健行业,嗯,应该说我们有一个医疗保健体系,而不是一个真正的医疗保健体系。不幸的是,它非常注重盈利。我认为美国的医疗保健体系是世界上最差的之一,它与我们支付的费用不成正比,并不是最好的。所以我认为我们肯定可以从其他国家学习一些东西。你提到的另一点是中国如何为世界提供价格合理的商品。现在我想过渡到我们正在关注的中美贸易战。你知道,这显然会成为2025年的热门话题。唐纳德·特朗普在2018年首次挑起这场贸易战,而现在,随着特朗普2.0的上台,我们看到的是一场规模更大的贸易战。教授,请您从经济学的角度再详细谈谈。


以及您关注的重点,特别是我们与中国之间的贸易战。世界上最重要的贸易商品之一是制成品,理论上如此,实际上所有制成品都可以在中国进行交易。这确实是一个中国占据巨大优势的经济领域。


有些人称中国为“世界工厂”。中国基本上参与了世界上所有制成品的生产,并且其主导地位如此之强,以至于美国感到受到中国的经济威胁。我想,当中国主要从事低技术产品的组装,并且在很大程度上帮助跨国公司时,这并不是一个大问题。在他们的运营中,但现在你看到中国正在进军半导体和人工智能领域,并且开始侵蚀美国的一些制造业基础。美国的工业中心也在更严重地衰落,所以这场贸易战在很大程度上是一场关于制成品的战争。


美国现在正试图解决长期以来存在的贸易逆差,并试图重建其在制造业领域失去的一些能力。是的,这确实是一个很好的观点。我认为有趣的是,在西方媒体中,我们经常听到“产能过剩”这个词,它在过去12到18个月里非常流行,我们听到很多政客谈论它。我想提一下你发的一条推文,你知道,这真的很有意思,因为你知道,《华尔街日报》在这里说,中国经济多年来一直背负着沉重的负担,情况到底有多糟糕。你知道,你对此提出了质疑,你说……你知道,现在我们称之为过度建设、产能过剩、生产过剩。我想这正是你刚才说的西方试图应对中国制造业崛起的问题。是的,嗯,你知道,首先我想说,我很多关于中国的帖子和推文,也是因为你看到一种叙事正在形成,尤其是在西方,关于中国的叙事,说中国“不好”,对吧?在我看来,这种反华言论之所以兴起,部分原因仅仅是因为中国在经济上对一些国家构成了挑战。


但就全球繁荣而言,中国实际上在这方面发挥了相当大的作用,产能过剩和生产过剩就是一个例子。我研究经济发展,了解经济发展史。如果你研究经济发展史,你会发现那些快速增长并成功消除国内贫困的国家,都依赖于出口大量商品,生产超过国内需求的产品,对吧?这就是我们所说的出口导向型经济发展。发展,这就是中国一直以来所走的道路,多年来一直被称为出口导向型发展。但现在,随着中国对美国构成日益严重的经济威胁,我们突然听到其他一些术语,尤其是在美国,他们称之为产能过剩或生产过剩。我认为可再生能源领域就是最好的例子。我们显然需要更多的可再生能源,即使中国生产了所有可再生能源设备,我们仍然没有足够的能源供应。


然而,为什么中国的电动汽车和太阳能电池板产量会过剩呢?我们明明需要更多这类产品。我想简化一下这个问题,因为你知道,例如,我认为产能过剩是一个非常基本的经济学概念。比如,在你的祖国挪威,你们生产的鲑鱼比挪威人能吃的还多,所以你们的鲑鱼产能过剩,这就是为什么你们把它出口到世界各地,为什么我们在美国超市的杂货店里能看到挪威鲑鱼。


苹果公司生产的iPhone也远远超过美国能消费的,所以他们才把它们出口到世界各地。难道真的就这么简单吗?仅仅从经济发展的角度来看,我认为你说得对。我还没有详细研究过中国的各个细分行业,也许有可能,或者你能说服我,某些经济活动确实存在产能过剩,但仅仅因为中国向其他市场出口产品,就认为产能过剩,这种说法是不成立的。这种认为中国产能过剩的说法简直是胡扯。


这种认为中国用产品淹没其他市场的说法是误导性的。其他国家从中国购买商品,是因为他们能以相对优惠的价格获得质量相对较高的商品。消费者和企业都使用来自中国的商品作为投入。所以,关键在于这里使用的词语,比如产能过剩或用商品淹没海外市场。中国只是以相当高的效率和相当低的成本做事,而且他们非常擅长竞争。没错,这很棒。我想提出一点:

为什么关税对美国的伤害比对中国的伤害更大?

我认为这一点很有意思,只需一张图表就能解释美中贸易战。我认为这张图表确实突出了这一点:当我们回顾早期,比如最左边的2003年,我们可以看到,当时美国在全球制造业中所占的份额领先,大约是22%到23%,而中国略高于10%,但过去二十年我们看到的情况很明显,中国崛起非常迅速。


美国仍然在大量生产商品,但其在全球制造业下滑的份额肯定也在不断扩大。


你知道,这当然可以解释很多中美贸易战的原因。你认为未来这种趋势会如何发展?我们是否会看到中国继续扩张并占据更多全球制造业份额?是的,我与联合国工业发展组织合作,他们预测,到2030年,中国在全球制造业中的份额将达到约35%,比现在高出5个百分点。很难说这种增长何时会停止,但有理由相信,中国在全球制造业中的份额将在未来几年继续增长。这很好。我想看看你发的另一条推文,我认为这是这个论点中非常有趣的一部分。


中国对美出口份额实际上正在下降,现在我们要把这一点与唐纳德·特朗普联系起来。我们认为,由于美国对华加征关税,对中国经济的损害将比特朗普第一任期要小。我们是否看到中国在战略上有所转变,减少了对美国的出口?或者他们只是扩大了其他贸易伙伴?这是否就是我们看到图表开始略微下降的原因?实际上,两者都有所体现。如果你观察美国,你会发现一些类似的事情。我认为两国都试图减少对彼此的依赖。这是我们在全球经济中看到的趋势,尤其是在疫情之后,各国在选择贸易伙伴方面更加注重战略。但中国目前拥有众多贸易伙伴,其对美出口份额有所下降。关于对中国进口商品加征关税,我不确定这是否会像特朗普希望的那样对中国造成如此大的伤害。我认为,在我们进行这场讨论的时候,我们还没有完全看到事情会如何发展。


我们看到,特朗普会先加征关税,然后立即撤销,就像他对墨西哥和加拿大所做的那样。我不太确定这场美中之间的第二次或第三次贸易战会如何发展。


但你说得对,我认为中国现在对美国作为其出口终端市场的依赖程度,不如特朗普执政时期那么高了。议员的第一任期,是的,我认为特朗普非常难以预测,我不知道是否有人能真正准确预测他会做什么。


我认为看到这个发展很有意思,特朗普最初说我们要对美国的两个最亲密的盟友加征25%的关税。我的意思是,真的,你知道,对加拿大加征关税将会是一场灾难,显然,它已经被暂停一个月了。你对这件事有什么看法?


对加拿大和墨西哥加征关税?例如,您知道,您曾在挪威学习过,您也知道,您是剑桥大学经济学教授,我的意思是,从您的角度来看,您知道,欧洲的情况如何?甚至您自己,当唐纳德·特朗普说我们要对盟友征收关税时,您是如何看待这个问题的?


您认为这真的是一个非常有趣的话题,特朗普的关税和贸易政策。对吧?首先,我想说的是,特朗普在他的第一任期内开启了加强贸易保护主义的思路,拜登在某种程度上延续了这一思路,他确实对中国加征了关税。他还对美国半导体行业实施了一系列出口限制和贸易惯例及政策限制。但我认为,正如您所说,特朗普现在有点难以预测。


就我目前对特朗普的理解而言,他把关税当作谈判工具,而不是美国的经济激励手段。


很多人都指出了这一点。有人说特朗普的政策会对美国造成损害,这很有可能,对吧?但看起来这更像是他在处理移民和边境管制等问题时使用的一种谈判工具,对吧?这些问题一直出现在他与墨西哥和加拿大的冲突中,他试图让墨西哥和加拿大按照他的意愿在边境管制方面采取行动。关税绝对是特朗普喜欢的东西。


他在做法和意识形态方面可能难以预测,但特朗普和TS(指特朗普的政策)似乎密不可分,是的,他肯定……我的意思是,我们已经看到美国的关税政策了,你知道吗?


有趣的是,每任总统上任后,关税都在增加。唐纳德·特朗普确实在他的第一任期内通过了创纪录的关税,我相信每年大约2000项。你知道,然后我相信乔·拜登实际上增加了关税,你知道,他也不害怕使用关税,但我喜欢你分享的这种见解,


它更像是一种工具,而不是真正的……从经济角度来看,这对美国和加拿大来说显然都是一场灾难。目前局势仍不明朗,我们或许可以看看唐纳德·特朗普几周后会怎么做,如果他想重新施压,从加拿大得到他想要的东西。但我确实认为,中国和世界贸易组织希望将贸易转移到世界贸易组织。我认为这很有意思,因为在美国,我们有很多政客,我更愿意说是共和党方面,尤其是那些对华鹰派,他们对中国非常强硬。


他们曾说过,中国加入世界贸易组织是一个巨大的错误。


我想分享你发的这条推文,我认为这非常引人入胜。你说,我们看到美国的工业生产基本上是从中国加入世界贸易组织开始下降的,你强调了国际贸易协定的重要性。


你能详细解释一下这张图表的含义以及你的意思吗?


贸易协定,是的,所以关于这张图表,我应该更专业一些。尤其要明确一点,美国的工业生产占经济的比重,或者说制造业占经济的比重,在此之前就开始下降,他们逐渐转向服务业。这张图表显示的是名义数据,也就是说,就绝对数量而言,工业生产在那之前一直在增长。


但我认为这张图表非常有趣,因为你可以看到,工业生产的绝对增长,在中国加入世界贸易组织之后就开始下降。你知道,众所周知,中国作为国际贸易舞台上的重要参与者,在经济上一直非常重要。


尤其是在中国加入世界贸易组织之后,中国开始成为国际贸易中一个更加重要的参与者,因为这使他们能够更方便地与许多伙伴,或者说与世界上几乎所有国家进行贸易,因为现在世界上几乎所有国家,都是世界贸易组织的成员。但是,当我们谈到世界贸易组织时,我想在这里强调一点,以及美国。各国对世界拥有很大的控制权。多年来,中国一直参与贸易组织,有时甚至无视世界贸易组织的规则。


却没有受到任何惩罚,对吧?我认为美国现在尤其感到恼火的是,中国正在效仿美国,也开始按照自己的方式行事,对吧?他们现在说,我们也是全球超级大国,我们也可以巧妙地制定贸易政策和产业政策,就像你可以做到。是的,我认为这是一个非常精辟的见解。接下来,我将探讨“中国如何主导汽车行业”。


具体来看汽车行业,我认为这是一张非常有趣的图表。再次强调,我非常喜欢你的推特,我认为它是一个非常棒的地方。我们会放上链接,方便大家关注你。但我们先来看看汽车行业,例如,这是一个非常有趣的例子。我们回顾一下,1998年,中国占全球汽车产量的1.4%。


仅仅25年多一点的时间,这个数字就增长到了38.4%,我的意思是,这是一个令人难以置信的巨大变化,几乎是从……你知道,基本上无人问津的呃,控制着1%的市场份额,到现在接近40%,呃,你知道,请你为我们分析一下,你知道,就中国汽车工业而言,你知道,这对于过去几十年的经济发展意味着什么,这绝对是令人难以置信,呃,这种增长,你知道,对于我们这些制造业爱好者来说,呃,在如此短的时间内取得如此惊人的增长,呃,我们应该……你知道,重要的是要注意到,呃,这并非在世界所有市场都能看到,对吧?


我们在美国,呃,或者在北欧的大多数国家,我们看不到路上40%的汽车是中国品牌,但是事实是,目前全世界生产的所有汽车中,40%是中国品牌,你知道,这是从20到30年间几乎为零增长起来的。之前那真是非常非常令人印象深刻,我想特别强调电动汽车,因为中国现在真的开始主导这个市场了。我预测,你知道,5到10年,15年后,在世界上大多数国家,我们将开始在电动汽车市场看到中国品牌。当然,除非出现严重的贸易限制,谁知道在这个新时代,各国之间贸易战会发生什么。但是,中国在电动汽车市场确实正在蓬勃发展,尤其是比亚迪,你知道,他们在中国电动汽车领域所做的一切非常令人印象深刻,哦,确实如此。我的意思是,当你去中国的时候,我认为最令人惊叹的是看到的转型。我是在2007年第一次去中国,显然,那时候还没有电动汽车。


中国电动汽车如何改变了中国当时全是汽油车,污染非常严重,你知道,再加上工厂的污染。但是我相信现在情况已经发生了巨大的变化。每年夏天我回中国,路上行驶的汽车中有50%都是电动汽车。


你知道,这不仅极大地改善了污染,也提高了人们的生活质量。而且,就像你说的,我们需要更多的电动汽车,我们需要更好的可再生能源。我的意思是,世界需要更多这样的能源,所以我认为这绝对值得我们庆祝。你知道,中国一直在推进这个行业的发展。还有一点很有意思,他们确实把埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉深深地融入了这个生态系统。


特斯拉在上海拥有超级工厂,全球55%的特斯拉汽车都产自上海。所以,即使你是一位自豪的美国人,想要购买美国制造的特斯拉,它仍然产自中国,仍然与这个生态系统紧密相连。听到你说中国50%的电动汽车,这真是令人印象深刻。你知道,作为一名发展经济学家,我听到这些话也很有感触,因为我们看看人均GDP之类的数据,对吧?我们看到中国仍然被归类为中等收入国家。


但你也会听到关于高铁网络、街上随处可见的电动汽车,还有人工智能和深度学习,对吧?所以在很多方面,中国都在挑战传统的经济学认知。一方面,他们是中等收入国家,但另一方面,他们在很多方面都处于技术前沿,这非常令人印象深刻。


你提出的观点很好,因为我认为这是一个非常引人入胜的统计数据。我们看到,中国实际经济的人均收入远低于美国。从技术上讲,中国仍然是一个发展中国家。然而,当我们看看你提到的人工智能等产业时,就会发现中国在很多方面都处于领先地位。我的意思是,现在完全开源的全新深度搜索工具人工智能工具彻底改变了人工智能的未来。你知道,我们看到了高速铁路,我们看到了……我的意思是,我们生活在中国这样一个社会,一切都是数字化的,对吧?一切都通过手机完成,没有现金。


一切都非常先进。那么,这背后有什么具体的原因吗?比如,中国是如何做到这一点的?中国是一个特例,它能够在没有经济学家所说的发展必要条件——超高收入的情况下,发展出世界上一些最先进的产业。我想,也许你甚至可能比我更能回答这个问题,因为你在中国待了很长时间。


但是,显然,我们应该记住,中国是一个非常大的国家。当你看到人均GDP,比如说中国人均GDP大约是14000美元左右,而美国的GDP是60000到70000美元。 80,000,对吧?如果你去上海这样的城市那么你知道这只是中国的一部分,对吧?显然上海的财富会更多,上海可能会给人一种类似于北美或北欧发达城市的感觉,而中国其他地区则不然所以我认为,由于中国幅员辽阔,我们也需要思考一下这些数字之间的差距对吧?


这是一个很好的观点


实际上,我认为如果你去上海、北京、深圳,也就是中国四大城市,你会发现人均GDP要高得多,而且肯定能代表这些产业但我还是要回答这个问题,至少从我的角度来看,因为我在中国生活多年,每年都去中国旅行,我认为很多因素都取决于政府的经济优先事项,以及规划我认为我知道,我当然不是想说中国政府很了不起,我们应该效仿他们的计划,但我总是喜欢以旁观者的身份观察,看看中国是如何规划的,他们在做什么。嗯,你可能很熟悉,中国政府每五年都会发布一个五年规划,为国家发展做规划。我当时很惊讶,有一年,其中一个要点是提高公民的预期寿命。我当时想,哇,政府的这个计划真是太棒了,竟然把它作为国家目标。


我们该如何实现呢?我们将减少污染,改善公民的空气质量,我们将采取一些措施,比如减少公共场所的吸烟,减少二手烟,并推进这些举措。所以,我认为虽然中国政府肯定有自己的问题,但我认为总是有……这是值得学习的东西,我认为我真的很想让大家理解这一点,这非常很有意思,听你分享你的见解非常有趣,尤其是在规划方面。


我最近在推特上看到一位知名记者发帖说,我们美国民主的问题看到中国的产业政策和长期规划比很多西方国家容易得多,因为他们不必经历这些政治转型,嗯,这会颠覆所有已经完成的事情,对吧?显然,这是在暗示要讨论民主,我认为民主本身就是所有国家都应该努力实现的,民主意味着领导层对人民负责,并且由人民组成,对吧?同时,我认为我们倾向于理想化,并把西方民主奉为理想的民主,而实际上它们有很多缺陷,对吧?


美国是完美的民主国家吗?不,它不是。亿万富翁在美国有着巨大的影响力。这不是一人一票,更像是美国的一美元一票。中国显然不是民主国家,所以,但是,要说中国应该像德国、挪威或美国那样发展民主,这也是一种错误的做法。我认为我完全同意你的观点,这更符合我喜欢关注的话题。


为什么中国如此不同?


我一直强调的一点是,世界太独特、太多元化,不可能只存在一种政府形式。我认为,你提到的这一点也很重要,考虑到中国的规模,很难想象14亿人是什么样子。这相当于四个美国人口聚集在一起。此外,说到这一点,你有一个像中国这样非常多元化的国家。你知道,在我的祖国美国,你可以去任何地方说英语。


但在中国,有超过300种不同的方言。你知道,当你开始在中国旅行时,你会发现有些人实际上并不说普通话,因为他们说的是当地语言。这就是中国的独特之处,它如此多元化。我几乎总是把在中国旅行比作去另一个大陆,因为它拥有一个完整的生态系统,非常独特,而且仅在中国境内就有许多不同的文化元素。


我认为,除非你亲自去中国,真正了解它,否则你不会体验到这一点,也不会真正了解这一点。你知道,例如,我们的思维方式非常简单,你知道,那是中国。


他们说中文,但中国远比这复杂得多。所以我认为,他们需要一种不同的政府形式,一种合适的政府形式。你知道,要对人民负责,也要了解人民的多样性,了解各个地区的多样性,以及人们不同的需求和愿望。作为一个美国人,观察这个国家的运作方式,以及如何照顾14亿人民,这又是一件非常有趣的事情。


我完全同意你的观点,这或许值得那些收听你的YouTube频道的人记住,尤其是那些生活在西方、欧洲或北美的人,他们可能旅行不多,但世界上有些地方,甚至在同一个国家内部,也存在着极大的多样性,体现在方言、食物、语言和文化方面。你提到了中国,你对中国非常熟悉,在很多方面也是如此。印度,每个地区都有不同的语言,我去过几次印度,很多人误以为英语是很多印度人的第一语言,事实并非如此。


他们首先说的是方言或当地语言,然后是印地语,对吧?是该国的官方语言,英语是第三语言,对吧?如果你去到这个国家,大多数人都不会说英语。所以,我觉得,对于我们这些生活在北美或欧洲“信息茧房”里的人来说,我们有时会忘记世界其他国家内部巨大的语言多样性。不,这很好,我喜欢这些见解,我喜欢我们今天的对话。教授,我想分享一条关于中国科技生态系统的推文。我认为这条推文非常引人入胜,它谈到了中国科技产业生态系统的图表。从经济角度来看,这很有意思。我们大多数经济学家都不明白,技术能力集群会跨越我们对行业和部门的分类。这张图表确实展现了很多关于中国的信息。我认为,当你开始观察有多少行业相互交融时,你会发现,我们一直认为中国是一个……你


生产廉价商品,你知道,这在很多年里都是刻板印象,尤其是在我成长过程中。但我认为现在这张图表真正显示的是制造业的规模有多大,发展得有多先进,不是吗?它真的变成了制造最先进产品的地方,比如iPhone之类的。


Kyle是我的朋友,也是普林斯顿大学的学者。


当你展示那篇文章的时候,我需要特别感谢Kyle Chan,他制作了那张图表。Kyle是我的朋友,也是普林斯顿大学的学者。他对中国的产业政策非常了解,所以请在Twitter上关注他,也请关注他的Substack,那张图表就出自那里。我曾在剑桥大学工程系做过几年研究员,在一家叫做制造研究所的地方,我是一名经济学家。因为我从经济学的角度研究产业政策和制造业,很多工程师都感到困惑,为什么我们经济学家会把制造业和服务业这样泾渭分明地划分出来。


因为对他们来说,很多东西都进入了双轨制,然后他们会看到技术集群跨越不同的经济部门,对吧?所以它不一定是指汽车行业,而是更多地从技术角度来看,电池行业以及参与其中的公司和技术。这又延伸到南加州的一系列行业,或者至少是经济学家所定义的行业。所以,我认为凯尔从公司角度绘制的那张图表很好地捕捉到了技术发展过程中的一些复杂性,以及技术集群的存在。不太容易识别至少不像大多数经济学家认为的那样容易识别。这真是个绝妙的见解,非常感谢。


您分享您的观点,我认为这很棒,尤其对于一位经济学家和研究这个问题的人来说。感谢您所做的工作。我还想谈谈您的书。我们最后还有一个问题:您写了一本书,名为《工厂的未来:大趋势如何改变工业化》。


《工厂的未来》请您详细介绍一下您出版的这本书,以及我们的观众可以从这本书中获得什么。是的,这本书主要探讨了全球经济正在发生的变革,这些变革正在从经济角度影响制造业,以及工业化轨迹和产业政策。


这些大趋势包括服务业的崛起、自动化、生产全球化和生态崩溃。一方面,我要强调的是,本书的一个关键亮点是,制造业仍然是经济增长和发展不可或缺的一部分,而且这种情况还会持续下去。如果我们还需要任何提醒,那么中美之间的现状就是最好的证明。你知道,这发生在我写完这本书之后,但我们每年都在看到这种情况的发生。本书的另一个重要信息是,在判断哪些国家能够实现工业化或无法实现工业化时,我们需要关注世界经济中的权力动态。当我们观察全球制造业价值链时,我们发现发展中国家在其所创造的价值中所占份额相对较小。因此,我认为一个关键挑战是,对于我们这些关心国际发展的人来说,如何帮助发展中国家实现工业化,如何构建全球治理体系,使发展中国家能够更积极地参与产业政策。这也是本书的一部分。你知道,我很多帖子都支持中国,原因在于:你看到一个发展中国家在这里取得了巨大的成功,正在建立一个庞大的经济体,造福于众多人民,这真是太棒了!我还有一个问题,我想问各位嘉宾:可再生能源领域的领导者,你们最想让世界了解中国的一件事是什么?我想让世界了解中国的一件事是:我认为现在每个人都应该了解的一点是,中国是全球可再生能源制造领域的领导者。如果你看看太阳能电池板,看看风力发电机,看看锂电池,中国就是领导者。我们现在需要紧急应对气候危机,我们应该赞扬中国在可再生能源制造领域所做的努力。当然,中国在能源生产方面可以做得更高效,但中国确实在可再生能源领域为我们指明了方向。感谢大家在YouTube上抽出时间观看我的节目。

结语

我非常荣幸有机会采访像Yosin Haga博士这样世界级的嘉宾,并帮助他向世界分享积极的信息和深刻的见解。

如果您喜欢今天的节目,请务必在Twitter上关注他,并订阅我的地缘政治新闻简报。我会在下面的描述中附上这两个链接。

最后,如果您有兴趣了解更多关于中国的信息,请点击此处观看我们的下一个视频。再次感谢大家一直以来的支持,期待在下一个视频中与大家见面。

Cambridge Economist Explains Why the World Needs China

Cyrus Janssen  2025年2月26日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWzCZvgzqGU 

What is the truth about China in 2025? Today I welcome in Dr. Jostein Hauge, political economist from Cambridge University. He authored the book The Future of the Factory: How Megatrends are Changing Industrialization and much of his research discusses the rise of China and its influence on global economics. In today’s show, we will debunk the myth of China’s “overcapacity”, discuss China’s role in the World Trade Organization and explain how China is on pace to account for 45% of global industrial production by 2030. In today’s episode, you will learn how China became the fastest growing auto manufacturer, and how China’s renewable energy sector gives hope to the world.

0:00 - Intro to China in 2025
2:10 - Why is China's Economic Transformation Important?
3:20 - China Higher Life Expectancy than USA
4:20 - The US China Trade War
6:03 - The Myth of Chinese Overcapacity
9:50 - Why Tariffs Will Hurt the US More Than China
13:13 - Tariffs on Canada and Mexico?
15:25 - China and World Trade Organization
17:53 - How China Dominates Auto Industry
20:03 - How Chinese EVs Changed China
21:49 - The Real Chinese Economy
23:45 - How the Chinese Government Works
25:00 - The Problems With US Democracy
26:17 - Why China is so Different
28:53 - China's Tech Ecosystem
31:26 - The Future of the Factory
33:20 - Leader in Renewable Energy
34:12 - Conclusion

Intro to China in 2025

we tend to idealize and hold up Western democracy as the ideal democracies whereas in reality they have quite a lot of flaws is the United States a perfect democracy no it is not billionaires have huge impact in the United States it's not one person one vote it's more like $1 one one vote in the United States industrial policy and long-term planning in China is much easier than in a lot of Western countries because they don't have to go through these political
transitions that will kind of upend everything that's been done this is Dr Yin haga a political Economist from the
University of Cambridge he authored the book the future of the factory how Mega Trends are changing industrialization much of his research discusses the rise of China and its influence on global economics Western media often fails to understand the truth about China and to give you an example of what I mean look at this headline from the New York times entitled she is making the world pay for China's mistakes the article argues that China's manufacturing dominance is a problem for the world and that China's rise has distorted global trade but of course this is Far From Reality the truth is the world has benefited tremendously from China's rise most especially us consumers who imported over $480 billion worth of goods from China in 2024 alone Dr hoa's response to this article hits the mark perfectly this essay falls into the line of growing anti-china sentiments in the US trying to portray China as the Boogeyman in reality all we can blame China for is challenging US economic hemony in today's show we'll debunk the myth of China's overcapacity discuss China's role in the World Trade Organization and explain how China is on Pace to account for 45% of global industrial production by 2030 in today's episode you will learn how China became the fastest growing Auto manufa facturer and how China's renewable energy sector gives hope to the world if you truly want to understand the truth about China then this is the episode for you let's begin Professor thank you so much for joining us here on real talk it's great to be
here thank you yeah fantastic I want to start off our conversation because I I know that you you tweet a lot about
China and this is really interesting to me because you have a number of tweets that are very supportive of China's
economic transformation and as a political Economist you know why is China's transformation important to you
but also what do you think that the world misunderstands about China well I think first of all if you look at that
transformation that China has gone through in the past few decades from the perspective of someone who does
development economics is just simply remarkable going from a country that uh
was just a few decades ago quite poor and now although it's GDP per capita
isn't super high it's grown quite a lot it's quite high but China is now a leader in several glob Global Industries
they've lifted more people out of poverty than the rest of the world put together in the last 50 years leading
renewable energy manufacturing and you know I can mention a lot more things so just from the perspective of uh Economic Development and and studying studying economic development is just very remarkable yeah I I love your tweet that
you that you sent out you you had even mentioned that for example China has a higher life expectancy in the you knowcompared to the United States despite its income per capita being roughly one six of the United States I thought
that's quite a amazing statistic as well yeah for sure um that's something very remarkable you know I'm not sure does
that say more about China does that say more about the health system in the United States you know having having that kind of growth in life expectancyuh despite having so such low low income says something about also how resources are efficiently allocated in China yeah it's very interesting I mean because I you know I'm from the United States we certainly have I would say we have a healthcare industry here uh not not really a Health Care System it's very much profit driven unfortunately I think the United States has one of the worst Health Care Systems it's it's just it's not for what we pay it's not the best and so I think there's certainly things we can learn from other countries another point that you put in was just how China has been you know providing
the world with affordable goods and I kind of want to transition now to you know this trade war that we're looking
at you know this is going to be uh the talk of 2025 obviously uh Donald Trump
first started this trade War back in 2018 and now here we are with Trump 2.0
we're looking at an expanded trade war from your perspective Professor tell us a little bit more about the economics
and what you're looking you know at this uh you know specifically the trade war between us and China uh one of the you
know most important traded Goods in the world is manufactured goods in theory
and in practice all manufactured goods can be traded right in China this is really an area an economic area where
China has made a huge in Rog some people call China the factory of the world right and China basically has a foot in
the production of everything all manufactured goods in the world right and they become so dominant that uh the
United States feels economically threatened by uh by China I guess it wasn't so much of a problem when China
you know was doing assembly specializing in low Tech goods and uh for the most part helping us transnational
corporations in their uh in their operations but now you're seeing China making entries into semiconductors into
artificial intelligence and also starting to erode some of this manufacturing base in the United States
uh and also the industrial centers of the United States are more severely declining so this trade war is in large
part a war about manufactured goods and the United States now trying to to solve
this trade deficit they've had for a long time and also trying to rebuild some of the capabilities uh that they've
lost in the manufacturing sector yeah that's a really that's a great point and I think interesting in Western media we
have this term called overc capacity this is a term that's been very hot over the last 12 to 18 months we hear a lot
of us politicians talk about this I want to bring up a tweet that you had sent and you know this is this is really
interesting because you know we have the Wall Street Journal here um you know talking okay China's economy is burdened
by years of excess here's how bad it really is and you know you kind of call them out on this you know you say um you
know now we are calling it overbuilding over capacity excess production I guess this is exactly what you were talking
about with the West trying to to cope with China's rise as a manufacturer yes
um you know let me start by saying a lot of my uh posts and tweets on China of
that nature is also because you see a kind of narrative building up especially in the west about China uh China being
quote unquote bad right right when the way I I I see it is that this anti-china
rhetoric that is building up is in some part simply because China is turning out to be economically challenging some
countries uh but as a whole for Global Prosperity actually China has been quite beneficial now on this issue of and the
issue of uh overc capacity and over production is an example of this right so I study Economic Development and I
know the history of Economic Development and if you study the history of Economic Development you see that countries that
have grown rapidly and succeeded in eliminating poverty within their borders they have relied on exporting a lot of
goods producing more than what is domestically needed right that's what we call Export Le
development and this is the path that China has been on and it's been termed export Le development for many years
right now suddenly we hear these other terms coming in as China increasingly becomes you know uh an economic threat
to the United States especially in the United States they call it overc capacity or over production I think the
renewable energy sector is the best example of this we clearly need more renewable energy even when all the
renewable energy devices that China is produ producing we don't have enough how
is it possible that China's production in EVs and solar panel is at over
capacity when we clearly need more of that I want to kind of simplify this as well because you know for example you
know I think overc capacity is a very basic economic uh thought here you know for example in your home country of Norway right you produce more salmon
than Norwegian could possibly eat right you have an overc capacity of salmon which is why you export it around the
world and why we find Norwegian salmon in our grocery Market in our grocery stores here in the United States right
you know Apple produces much more iPhones than than the United States could possibly consume and hence why
they export them around the world is it really as simple as that just just looking at this economic lead
development I think you're spot on I haven't studied all you know the sub sectors in details in China and it might
be possible or I might you might convince me that there is over production or over capacity in some uh
in some economic activities right but this idea that because China uh exports
products to other markets this idea that that is overc capacity is just rubbish
right this idea that China is flooding other markets with their products is a
misleading idea okay other markets other countries buy goods from China because
they get high relatively high quality Goods that are at a relatively good price both consumers and firms using
goods from China as inputs right so it's it's a lot about the words that are being used here right such as overc
capacity or flooding overseas Market with with their goods China is simply doing things pretty efficiently and
pretty cheaply and they're being very good at competition yeah absolutely great Point here I want to bring up this
one I think this is quite interesting when you just say the US China trade War explained in one chart and I think this
really highlights that when we look at you know as early if we look on the far left this is 2003 uh we could see that
the the share of global manufacturing United States was the leader you know approximately let's call it 22 23% China
just over 10% but what we've seen in the last you know two decades obviously you know China Rising very rapidly in the
United States you know still obviously manufacturing a lot but certainly having their share of a global manufacturing
decline um you know this this is you know certainly explains a lot of the US China trade War what do you think this
this Gra will continue to look like in the future are we going to continue to see China you know expanding and and and
owning more of that Global manufacturing base yes uh so I I do some work with the
UN Industrial Development organization and uh they project that China's share
of global Manufacturing in 2030 will be roughly 35% so that's 5 percentage
points higher than it is now it's hard to say you know exactly when that growth will stop but there is reason to believe
that China share of global manufacturing will continue to grow for a few years that's that's excellent I want to I want
to look at this another tweet that you sent out um you know and this is I think a very interesting part of this argument
as well is that China's share of exports going to the United States is actually uh decreasing and now we're going to go
tie this right back into Donald Trump we say that because of this further us tariffs on China will hurt the Chinese
economy less compared to Trump's first term have have we kind of seen a strategic shift away from uh China you
know as far as not sending as many Goods to the United States or have they just been expanding their other trading
partners is that really why we've seen that that chart really start to decline a little bit of both actually and if you
looked at the United States you see something uh something a bit similar I think both countries have tried to
become a little bit less dependent on each other you know and this is some a move that we've seen in the global
economy especially since the pandemic that countries are being more strategic about who they partner up with in terms
of trade um but China has so so many trading partners uh right now and uh a
lower share of their exports is going to the United States lower share of imports as well tariffs on China I'm not sure if
it's going to hurt China as much as Trump would intend for it to hurt now I don't think we've seen you know as we're
having this conversation kind of the full extent of how this is going to play out we've seen that that Trump has you
know apply tariffs and then revoke them immediately after with uh with what he's done with with uh Mexico and Canada I'm
not entirely sure how this this kind of second or third trade war with with
between the US and China will play out right now but indeed you're are correct I don't think uh China is as dependent
on the United States as an end market for their exports as they as they were during Trump's first term yeah I think
Trump is very much uh very unpredictable I don't know if anybody can really uh you know predict exactly what he's going
to do I think it's very interesting to see this development where Trump initially said we're going to put in
tariffs of 25% on America's two of America's closest allies I mean really you know putting that tariff on Canada
would have been a disaster obviously it's been paused for one month um what are your thoughts on that when you see
you know for example you know from Norway studying it you know a professor at Cambridge University studying economics I mean from from your position
you know how does how was Europe and and even yourself how are you looking at that when Donald Trump says you know we're going to be passing these tariffs
on our allies what do you think that's a really uh you know this is a really interesting topic Trump's approach to
tariffs and trade policy right right you know I want to First say that Trump kind of started this idea of increased
protectionism in his first term and Biden did continue it to some degree he did uh put tariffs on on China with Eves
um he's also put a range of export restrictions and sort of restricted Trade Practices and policies in the US
semiconductor industry but I think Trump right now as you said is he is a bit of
an unpredictable person the way I've understood Trump so far is that he uses
tariffs as a negotiating tool it's not necessarily A an economic incentive for
the United States and a lot of people have pointed out that trumps will be damaging for the United States and that
could very well be the case right but it seems like it's more of a bargaining tool that he uses when it comes to
issues like immigration and fenel right that's those have been in his issues with
Mexico and Canada to try and get them to do what he wants in terms of border control tariffs is definitely something
that Trump likes he may be unpredictable in terms of his practices and ideology
but Trump and TS seem to go hand in hand yeah he's definit I mean we've seen tariffs in the United States you know
interesting they've been increasing with every president that has that has gone by um Donald Trump did pass a record
number of tariffs during his first term I believe it was around 2,000 per year
uh you know and then I believe that actually Joe Biden increased that you know he he was also not not afraid to use the tariffs but I I like that
Insight that you shared though that it's more of a tool as opposed to really the economics of that because it would have
been a disaster for the United States in Canada obviously we're it's still not in the clear we might see what Donald Trump
does uh in you know in a few weeks time if he wants to reapply that pressure and get what he wants from Canada but I I do
want to shift here to the World Trade Organization I think this is really interesting because in the United States we have a lot of politicians and I would
say more on the Republican side more of the China Hawks that are very aggressive
towards China they have said that you know China joining the World Trade Organization was a massive mistake and I
I wanted to share this tweet that you sent out I think this is quite fascinating when you know you said like
we're looking at the um industrial production and how it in in the United States it basically started declining
almost exactly when China joined the World Trade Organization and you really highlight that this is the importance of
international uh trade agreements can you kind of expand upon exactly what this chart means and and what you mean
with the trade agreements yeah so I should be be a little bit more technical when it comes to this chart in
particular and be be clear that industrial production as share of the economy or manufacturing as share of the
economy in the United States started decreasing before that they kind of mve towards the service economy this chart
shows it in in kind of in nominal terms so in absolute numbers industrial production was going up until that time
but that chart I I I thought it was really interesting because you see that the growth in industrial production
absolute numbers start kind of decreasing right after China joined the World Trade Organization and you know as
we know China as a player in the international arena in international trade economically has been very
important and it was especially after China joined the World Trade Organization
that they started becoming a much bigger bigger player in international trade because that Ena them to trade much more
easily with a lot of Partners or with essentially all countries in the world because by now almost all countries in
the world are members of the World Trade Organization but I want to you know when we talk about the World Trade
Organization I want to say something important here and the United States has had a lot of control over the World
Trade Organization for many many years and sometimes defied the rules of the World Trade Organization
without consequences right and I think what the United States is especially upset seeing now is that China is taking
a page from the book of the United States and also doing things a bit on their terms right they're saying now
we're also a global superpower we can also do you know trade policy and Industrial policy in a clever way like
you can do yeah I think that's a a really good insight there and um I'm going to follow that with um you know
looking at a specific industry I think this was a really fascinating chart and again I I love you your your Twitter I
think it's um you know a fascinating place we're going to put those links so people can follow you but you know let's just look at the car industry for
example this is this is quite a fascinating one where you know we look back in in 1998 China accounted for 1.4%
of global car production fast forward you know just over 25 years and that has increased to 38.4% I mean that is an
incredible dramatic change I mean almost going from you know basically a nobody
uh controlling 1% to now almost 40% uh you know break that down for us you know as far as China's automobile industry
and you know what that really means for for over the last you know few Decades of economic development that is
absolutely mindboggling uh that that growth and you know for for for those of
us manufacturing nerds um that is absolutely a mindboggling growth in such
a short time frame we should you know it's important to note that uh this is not visible in all markets in the world
right we don't see in the United States uh or in most countries in northern Europe we don't see 40% of cars on the
roads being Chinese Brands cor but the fact that of all the cars that are produced right now in the world 40% of
them are Chinese Brands and that's you know grown from practically nothing from 20 30 years ago that is very very
impressive and I want to highlight in particular electric vehicles because this is a market that China is really
starting to take over now and I uh I predict that you know 5 10 15 years down
the line in in most countries in the world we we'll start seeing Chinese brands in the EV uh Market that is of
course you know unless there are severe trade restrictions who knows what's going to happen in this new era of of
trade Wars between uh between countries uh but China is really surging in the
electrical electric vehicle market and especially byd you know what they're doing with electric vehicles in China is
extremely impressive oh it it really is and I mean when when you go to China I think what's so so amazing to see is the
transformation I mean I I I first went to China in 2007 and obviously at that time there was no electric vehicles it
was all gas and there was so much pollution you know in combination with factories as well but I believe that
that has shifted so much now when I return to China every summer 50% of the cars on the roads are electric vehicles
you know that has had a substantial change to the pollution but also just the quality of of life I think in China
as well and I think like you said you know we need more electric vehicles we need a better you know renewable energy
I mean that the world needs more of that and so I think this is definitely something that we should be celebrating
you know from China that they're continue to advance this industry uh what's also interesting they've really brought Elon Musk and Tesla very much
into that ecosystem obviously Tesla you know has the gigafactory in Shanghai 55%
of every Tesla in the world is coming from Shanghai so you know even if you're you know proud American and you want to
buy American buy a Tesla it's still you know coming from China and it's still very much involved in that that that
ecosystem you know to hear you say that 50% of uh 50% of electrical vehicles in
China that's extremely impressive you know and this is also hearing this as as a development Economist you know because
we we look at these figures like GDP per capita right and we see that China is classified as still as a middle- inome
country but then you hear about the highspeed rail networks about how many electric vehicles you see on the streets
about now you you know artificial intelligence and deep seek right so in a
lot of ways China is is defying conventional wisdom in economics by you know there on the one hand there middle
income country but then on the other hand at the technological Frontier in so many ways it's it's very impressive you
know that's a good point that you brought up because I I think that that is a very fascinating statistic you know the fact that we see the income per
capita it is much smaller than the United States when you technically classified it is still a developing
country but yet we we look at these industries like you said AI I mean the new deep seek tool AI tool that's now
fully open source completely changed the future of AI uh you know we see the high-speed rails we see uh I mean we
live in a society in China where there's everything's digital right everything's run through your phone there's no cash
everything's very Advanced over that is there any specific reason why that happened like how is that possible that
China is this anomaly that it's able to you know develop some of the most advanced Industries in the world despite
not having that super high income that that that economists said is necessity to to develop well I think I think maybe
you can even uh you can even answer answer that to some degree better than me having spent so much time in China
right but obviously I think CH you know we should keep in mind that China is a is a very big country right when you see
GDP per capita and say GDP per capita in China is around $14,000 something like that and then GDP
in the United States is 60 70 80,000 right if you go to a city like Shanghai
then you know that's one part of China right and obviously there's going to be a lot more wealth in Shanghai and
Shanghai will probably come across as a city uh similar to the really developed cities in North America or in northern
Europe right and other areas of China not as AF right so I think because of the size of the country we also need to
think a bit about the disparity when we think about these these numbers right that's a yeah that's a great Point
actually I think if you were to go to the Shanghai Beijing Shenzhen guango that's the big four the the uh the top
four cities I think you would see that GDP per capita be substantially higher and and certainly representative of
those Industries but I I will go ahead and answer that question as from my perspective at least is having lived in
China for many years and traveling there every year I think a lot of it does come down to the economic priority you know
for the government and really the the planning and I think that you know I'm I'm certainly not here trying to say
that you know China's government is amazing we should follow their plan but I always like to observe as a you know
from the outside looking okay what how is China planning you know what are they doing um you're probably very familiar
with the fact that you know the government comes out with A Five-Year Plan uh every every five years for that for the country and I was amazed at you
know one year that one one of the bullet points was we want to increase the life expectancy of our citizens I said I
thought wow what a what an amazing plan from the government you know to to make that a national objective and how are we
going to do that we're going to reduce pollution we're going to you know improve the quality of the air for our Citizens We're you know going to put in
measures like reducing smoking in public areas to reduce secondhand smoke and work on these initiatives so I do think
that there um while China's government certainly has its own issues and problems I I do think that there is
always something to learn and I think that's something that I really want to make people help understand this is very
interesting very interesting to listen to you and listen to your insights here um you know on the planning aspect
uh someone I saw a prominent journalist recently post on on x/ Twitter that we
see that industrial policy and long-term planning in China is much easier than in
a lot of Western countries because they don't have to go through these political
transitions um that will kind of upend everything that's been done right correct and obviously that was a you
know hinting at a discussion about democracy and I think I think democracy is something in itself that all
countries should strive to achieve democracy here being you know leadership that is accountable to its people and
it's formed by the people right at the same time I do think we tend to idealize
and hold up Western democracy as the ideal democracies whereas in reality they have quite a lot of flaws right
right is the United States a perfect democracy no it is not billionaires have
huge impact in the United States it's not one person one vote it's more like $1 one one vote in the United States
China is obviously not a democracy so but you know to say that China should go
to where you know Germany is or Norway is or where the United States is in terms of democracy that is also the the
wrong approach I think I I completely agree with you and that's that's more on the the topics that I like to focus on
and one thing I always say is the world is too unique and too diverse for only one form of government to exist and I
think also you know highlight on that point you mentioned with the scale of China it's very hard to imagine what 1.4
billion people look like you know that's four United States uh together in one place and in addition to that you have a
country like China that is very diverse you know in my home country of the United States you can go everywhere and
speak English uh in China there's over 300 different dialects you know you start traveling around China you will
find people that don't actually speak Mandarin because they speak their local language and there's it's so unique and
it's so diverse I I almost I always equate traveling through China is almost like going to another continent because
it's it it has this whole ecosystem it's very unique and there's just so many different cultural elements within China
alone and I think that's you're you're not going to experience that or really have any knowledge of that until you go
to China and really learn about that you know for example we have a very simplistic mindset you know that's China
they speak Chinese it's a lot more it's a lot more complex than that so I I do think that they're going to have to have a different form of government one that
is suitable um certainly some accountability you know for the people but also to understand just how diverse
the people are how diverse the regions are and the different needs and and wants of the people as well it's again a
very interesting thing to be an American observing how that country functions and how do you take care of 1.4 billion
people I I completely agree with you and this is maybe something to keep in mind for those who listen to your uh who
subscribe to your YouTube channel for those who are you know in in the west and in in Europe or in North America
that and haven't necessarily travel that much that some places in the world even within countries are extremely diverse
in terms of dialects food languages culture right you mentioned China you're very familiar with China uh in in many
ways India right you have different languages in each region in India that's a place I traveled a few times and a lot
of people mistakenly think that English is the first language of many people from India that's not the case first
they speak the dialect or the language the language of the the region and then uh Hindi right which is the official
language of the country and then English as the third language right and many people most people if you go to the
countryes side won't speak English so this this kind of I think you know for those of us in a in a bubble in North
America or Europe we sometimes tend to forget about this enormous within country diversity in other countries in
the world no that's very good I I I love these insights I love our conversation today uh Professor I want to I got one
final tweet I I do want to share I think this is a really fascinating one um you know where just talks about uh this
chart of China's tech Industrial uh ecosystems and and this is interesting from the economic perspective most of us
economists don't understand that clusters of technological capabilities cut across our categories of sectors and
industries and and this chart really does show quite a lot about China I think when you start looking at how many
Industries are crossing over um you know again we we always thought of China as this um you know place where you
manufacture cheap Goods you know that was certainly the The Stereotype for many years you know certainly when I was growing up but I think now what this
chart really shows is you know how vast the manufacturing is and just how advanced it's become hasn't it it's
really become this you know now a place to manufacture the most advanced things like you know for example an iPhone or
something like that first when you showed that that post I need to shout out uh Kyle Chan Who U who made that
chart uh so Kyle is a is a friend and also an academic at Princeton University
and he knows a lot lot about industrial policy in China so do follow him on Twitter and follow his substack where
that chart was from I was a researcher in the engineering department at Cambridge for a few years actually at a
place called The Institute for manufacturing as an economist and because I study things like industrial
policy and Manufacturing from an economic perspective and these engine a lot of the engineers were puzzled that a lot of us economists have this distinct
categories between manufacturing and services for example because for them a lot of it entered twin and for then they
will see technological clusters going across you know different sectors uh of
the economy right so it's not necessarily about the you know the car industry but you know more about from a
technological perspective the battery industry and the companies and the technologies that are involved in that
and that again Fizzles into a range of So-Cal industries that or at least Industries as economists classify as
Industries so you know I thought that chart by Kyle from a company perspective captur really well you know a bit of the
messiness of how technological development happens and that technological clusters aren't very easy
to identify at least not as easy as most economists would have no that's a fantastic uh fantastic insight and thank
you so much for uh you know sharing your perspective I think it's it's great as um certainly an economist and someone
that that studies this and thank you for your work that you're doing and I also want to talk about your book though
we're going to end on this one last question is is you've authored a book called the future of the fact how Mega Trends are changing industrialization
tell us a little bit more about the book that you've published and you know what our viewers could expect uh from reading
that book yeah so this book basically goes through transformations in the global economy that are impacting uh the
the world of manufacturing from a from an economic perspective and also industrialization trajectories and
Industrial policy um so these these Mega Trends I talk about the rise of services I talk about automation I talk about the
globalization production and I talk about ecological breakdown uh and on the one hand I highlight you know one of the
key highlights here of the book is that manufacturing continues to be really an integral part of economic growth uh and
development and it will continue to be so and if we needed any sort of reminder of this what we're seeing between China
and the United States is is is proof here and you know this happened after I wrote the book um but we we're seeing
this play out year by year another important message of the book is that when it comes to figuring out which
countries are going to be able to industrialize or not industrialize uh we need to look at Power Dynamics in in the
world economy you know when we look at these Global value chains uh in manufacturing we see that developing
countries occupy a relatively small share of value with with what they do so
I I think a key challenge here you know is to figure out a way uh for those of
us who care about International Development how developing countries can industrialize how we can construct
Global govern governance systems to allow developing countries to more actively embark on Industrial policy and
this is also part of the reason why you know a lot of my posts have been supportive of China because you're
seeing a developing country here you know really successfully doing this yeah and and building up you know a a huge
economy that benefits a lot of its people yeah fantastic I I do have one final question though I I'd ask this to
all my guests uh what is one thing that you want the world to know about China One thing that I'd like for the world to
know about China well one fact that I think is important for everyone right
now to know about China is they are the global leader in renewable energy
manufacturing if you look at solar panels uh if you look at windmills if
you look at lithium batteries um China is the leader right now we need to
urgently deal with the climate crisis and we should applaud China's efforts in
renewable energy energy manufacturing to get us there of course China has you
know they they can do things more efficiently with respect to their own energy production but China is is really
showing us the way in renewable energy manufacturing everyone thank you for spending time with me here on YouTube
I'm so honored to have the chance to interview worldclass guests like Dr yosin haga and help share his positive
message and insights to the world if you enjoyed today's episode make sure you give them a follow on Twitter and also
subscribe subbe to my geopolitics newsletter I'll drop the link to both of those in the description down below
finally if you're interested in learning more about China make sure you click here to watch our next video and once
again I want to thank you all for your continued support and I look forward to seeing you all in our next video soon

路过

雷人

握手

鲜花

鸡蛋

评论 (0 个评论)

facelist

您需要登录后才可以评论 登录 | 注册

法律申明|用户条约|隐私声明|手机版|小黑屋|联系我们|www.kwcg.ca

GMT-5, 2026-4-29 17:26 , Processed in 0.024419 second(s), 17 queries , Gzip On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2021 Comsenz Inc.  

返回顶部