2014 Global Market Outlook - Asia + Emerging Market

精英理财Aurora

Equity - Asia

South Korea and Taiwanwill benefit the most from US and European economic recovery through theexport. ASEAN free trade block and India will most likely be negatively impacted by QE taper, as these counties have been enjoying the easy money policy and absorbed substantial capital inflows. When US interest rate goes up, capital outflow will make the current account deficit situation even more severe.  

The “Abenomics”phenomenon will start fading away, and significant challenges remains to successfully implement the reform. Better than expected Chinese GDP growth supports the bullish view of the global trade. China is now the single largest trading partner in Asia, providing relief in the region when US and European economic growth is relatively slow. The market reaction to China’s structural reform is largely underwhelming. It’s going to be a gradual changing process and the outcome is still to be seen. A encouraging news is a national audit into local government debt and leverage is underway to help steer credit toward private sector away from state owned enterprises.

Political issues this year will take center stage. India and Indonesia heading into election, this kind of uncertainty tend to dim the economic outlook. In Thailand the anti-government riot will hurt the economy even more.

Equity - Emerging Market

Emerging market equity performance has been held back by strength in US dollar. Another factor holding back emerging market is that profit margin is generally narrower than in developed market. However, moderate growth expectation has curbed wage increase and weaker currencies improve competitiveness. Both help push up profit margins.

ROE in emerging marketis currently is at low level, which is usually a contrarian indicator that emerging market performance is about to reversal. The MSCI Emerging Market Index trades at a 27% discount to the MSCI World Index on a forward P/E basis. The index’s P/B ratio is around 1.5 which is historically attractive. There still need to have more signs to support an emerging market comeback. Thus currently investors still should be very cautious with emerging market, but this is likely to reverse over time.