日志
在2007年，馬斯克已經神預言了今天的一切
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在2007年，馬斯克已經神預言了今天的一切！19年前，馬斯克已經想到了SpaceX還會繼續暴漲
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaTc5fmW0gg
第 1 章：Introduction to Musk's vision
When I graduated from college, there were three areas [music] that I thought would be most impactful to the future of humanity. The three were the internet, space exploration and changing the
economy from a mine and burn hydrocarbon [music] based economy to one which is solar electric which I think is going to be the primary but not exclusive [music] means of uh energy and transportation.
Have we screwed it up so badly here on this planet that our only [music] hope is to build a new civilization out there?
No, not at all. Actually, I'm quite optimistic [music] about the future of humanity on Earth. You are?
Yeah, absolutely. So what is the benefit to humanity then to inhabit Mars which is really what is an ambition of yours?
Well I think [music] if you consider two paths one where we are forever confined to Earth and the other where we are spacef frank civilization [music] out exploring the stars I think the latter
is far more exciting and will result in a richer and more diverse human experience. Elon thank you so much for being with us here at Wired Science.
Well thank you for having me. Uh, I need to first lay a little bit of a foundation here. Two days into your physics program at Stanford University,
you quit school to start a company called Zip to a media company, right?
Uh, which you sold a few years later for a poultry $37 million. Then four years
later, um, eBay buys PayPal. Is that correct? A company that you established or helped to establish is one of a few
others. Yeah. Um, and now you've taken
[clears throat]
those two enormous successes and you've set your ambition on space. How did you go from online payment systems to building a spaceship essentially?
第 2 章：SpaceX and the future of space
Well, uh, when I graduated from college, there were three areas that I thought would be most impactful to the future of humanity. The three were the internet,
space exploration and uh and and then changing the economy from a mine and burn hydrocarbon based economy to one which is solar electric which I think is
going to be the primary but not exclusive uh means of uh energy and transportation.
Have we screwed it up so badly here on this planet that our only hope is to build a new civilization out there?
No, not at all. Actually, I'm quite I'm quite optimistic about the future of humanity on Earth. You are?
Yeah, absolutely. So what is the benefit to humanity then to inhabit Mars which is really what is an ambition of yours?
Well, I think if you consider two paths, one where we're forever confined to Earth and the other where we are space frank civilization uh out exploring the stars, I think the latter is far more
exciting um and will result in a richer and and more diverse uh human experience. How can you do that better uh than NASA?
Well, uh, well, you know, NASA is a customer of ours. So, there's a I think a confusion in the public mind that that perhaps a company like SpaceX is
competing with NASA, but but in fact, NASA is a customer of ours. So we're actually uh providing services to NASA
launch services. Uh and when when the shuttle retires in 2010 uh so starting in 2011 uh SpaceX's uh rocket will
replace the space shuttle in servicing the space station with astronauts and uh and cargo transportation.
The name of your rocket ship is called the Falcon Explorer. Is that it? Well, the the Falcon 9.
The Falcon 9 is the rocket. And and then the space the spaceship is Dragon. Dragon.
Yeah. So the Falcon 9 rocket lifts the Dragon spaceship and the Dragon spaceship is what goes to the space station and then returns to Earth.
So it transports the Falcon as almost cargo then.
So yeah, the Falcon 9 is kind of like the uh the semi or something like that.
Um and it it trans the Falcon 9 booster rocket takes the Dragon spaceship to space and drops it off.
Mhm. Then it goes to the space station that ducks with the space station uh transfers astronauts or resupply you
know cargo whatever whatever the case may be and then the dragon spacecraft uh returns to earth.
第 3 章：Critique of space policy
I reading some of the speeches that you have given in your your career and how you're practically 23 years you're 23
years old is that I'm actually 12. You're 12. I was going to say you look terrific.
But you have said that we got lost along the way with our space program. What did you mean by that?
Right. I think I think I that was in some of my congressional testimony I I gave a few speeches to to Congress.
Well, what I mean by that is in 1969 we were able to go to the moon and here we are over three decades later and we can
barely get to low Earth orbit. And I think by any measure that is a step backwards. Is that for a lack of leadership or technology?
I think we made the wrong technological choices and I think there was also a lack of uh will at the at the the highest levels of government to take the
next step and and uh go go well at least go at least stay on the moon and perhaps build a base there and then go beyond
the moon to Mars. And if you look at the the news articles in the late '60s, early '7s, the expectation uh was that
that by now in in the 21st century, we would have a moon base and probably even a Mars base.
Uh and and I think if you'd asked anyone at that point in time whether we we would be unable to go to the moon and have no not have been to to Mars, I
think they would they would think you're crazy.
Do we need leadership in that realm? Do we need a John F. Kennedy who sets a goal for us when he said one one day a
man will walk on the moon. Do we need that kind of leadership for this technology to move forward in that big step?
I do think it's it's very important the president uh set the the the priority and and and determine the the goal uh you know that that we as a nation will
aspire to. M and uh you know George Bush has his pluses and minuses. Um but at least one
plus is that he he has helped to to steer the space program in a direction that that more or less makes sense. Um you know the only thing I would I would
sort of argue with is that I don't think we should be going back to the moon. I think we should be focused on Mars.
I think we saw the You think that's a mistake focusing on the moon?
I do think I I do think we should rather go I think we should rather be focused on on Mars. Um, you know, the moon is kind of like it's kind of like uh the Arctic. I mean, it's just it's just a
very barren place, very very little resources. It's small. Um, it's not it's not really a place that we could establish uh another human civilization.
There's a there's a there's a feeling of been there, done that too with the moon.
Yeah, I think we saw that movie in the 60s. You know, the remake's never as good. Did we really go to the moon?
Uh, yes. Yes, we definitely wanted to check. uh [laughter] the the government is incapable of of suppressing uh a conspiracy of that
nature of that nature. So, okay, good. This ambition to explore space. Absolutely.
第 4 章：Competition in the space industry
As an entrepreneur, there's there's quite a bit of competition out there. There's Jeff Bezos with Blue Origin.
There's Richard Branson with his Virgin Galactic, right?
Um and I'm not talking about NASA either. There's Paul Allen. Uh there's the European Space Agency and Boeing and Loheed Martin, the Chinese, the
Russians. Let's just throw all of them into this competitive field. How is SpaceX different? How do you think you'll sort of uh surpass them?
Well, you know, you you've you've listed a a wide range of of entities there. And I think the differences are uh really
different depending upon which one you're referring to. The uh Well, let me ask you this question. Who is your competition?
We have no serious competition.
Not not presently. Who's chasing you?
Well, uh, if you mean chasing and have and has a serious chance of catching, then I I think none that I'm aware of.
Uh, Branson Guy's kind of a hack then.
Well, what what uh Branson is doing, by the way, I'm a great admirer of Branson.
uh is really um a much smaller technological challenge. So their craft would be suborbital. Uh so it would go
to about Mach 3. Uh our craft is orbital. It goes to Mach 25. So 25 times the speed of sound. But that doesn't
describe the whole scale of difficulty because the the energy required to get to those velocities scales as the square of the velocity. So to do what Branson
is doing, you need say about nine units of energy. to do what we're doing, you need 625 units of energy. The difference is monumental. Uh and then when you re
reenter, you have to you have to burn off all that energy. So, uh so that doubles the problem really. So, I mean, what Branson is doing from a
technological standpoint is building something that can cross the English Channel. What we're building is something that can circumn the globe.
It's a very different scale of of of technological difficulty. I still think what he's doing is great. And by the way, I bought a ticket on on his effort.
You did?
Yeah. Yeah. So, I I still think it's great, but it's not it's not in the same league technologically. So, you're not particularly worried?
Certainly not about No, certainly not about that. No, the things that worry me are are we going to make a mistake? Are we the the the the the things that can
really hurt SpaceX are I mean, we our own foolishness uh our own errors can can hurt us, but not none of the competition that I'm aware of.
So, generally, you're worried about what's in front of you, not not the other guy. In fact, you probably don't think about them in terms of how they
criticize you or what they think about you.
I I don't think actually I don't think uh there's much criticism. I mean Boeing and Loheed of course they would criticize but I don't think any of the
entrepreneurial guys would criticize what we're doing. Um and certainly possibly I think you know what what Jeff Bezos is working on could ultimately I
mean he he does have aspirations to get to orbit and beyond. It's just that what they're doing right now is suborbital and at at the sort of lower technology level.
What I think about at SpaceX is really entirely what are we doing to ensure that our rocket is is going to be successful and that we are truly uh
optimizing the the the cost uh and ensuring higher reliability. I mean that's just a very very difficult problem. There's a reason why there's an
idiomatic expression about rocket science being hard. Uh it it really is really hard. So, rocket science [clears throat] really is rocket science.
Yeah, [laughter] it looks hard and it's harder than it looks.
第 5 章：Motivation and startup philosophy
What's the big goal here? What's the long-term plan?
Well, the the long-term ultimate objective, the the holy grail is we would like to help make life multilanetary. That's really what we'd like to do.
So, establish societies on as many planets as possible.
Uh well, yeah. Well, I think there's only one possibility, but yeah, I mean, even if we can just go from one planet to two, I think that's a pretty big step.
And you'll start with well, Mars, Mars is the only viable planet. Viable planet. So, multilanetary life.
Yeah, it's help make life multilanetary. I think that's an important thing. I don't think your goal is big enough. Huh.
Yeah, it's ambitious.
Well, like I said, we're not don't expect to do it single-handedly, but we certainly would like to help make it happen. It's fair to say you've made a fortune.
Yeah, I think so. By any reasonable standard. Yeah.
And you know, those who work in science probably understand your trajectory, but there are those who are watching who
would think if I made that money, I'd sit on a beach, I'd drink beer, and I would just watch the sunset. Kind of like a Corona beer commercial. Have you
ever thought about that as a career option?
Uh, you know, I find that really pretty boring. So, that would be torture if I had to do that every day. That would really be pretty awful for me. Is there
something about startup businesses that that that really fuels your desire to work?
Well, I guess I I I I I really need to be preoccupied with something. Uh and I if if I'm just sort of sitting there
relaxing, I can only do that for a very short period of time and then it becomes unbearable. Mhm.
Um although startups definitely have their highs and lows. And there's a friend of mine who has a good phrase, you know, a startup business is like eating glass and staring into the abyss.
What is the criteria that you establish for yourself for a startup? I mean, why one business over another? Yeah.
Well, I for me it's always about does this does what I'm doing matter? If if we are successful, uh does it matter to
the world? And uh so there are easier ways to make money than starting a rocket company or say a car company. Mhm.
Um or or even when I started an internet company cuz when I started the first internet company uh nobody had made any money and it wasn't clear that anyone
would make any money. Uh it was simply from the perspective of the internet being a very important thing and something that needed to be built and so I wanted to help build it. Well, you
touch upon something that's interesting is that there is a that benefiting humanity is a very integral part of your
criteria no matter what you're starting up. Yes, absolutely.
Really, not everybody has that as a prime interest.
I think that's that's probably relatively unusual. Although I there are many people that I know in Silicon Valley for whom that is a significant motivation. You said in your endeavor
here to explore space that we are committed to failing in a new way if nothing else.
What did you mean by that? Just just just how it sounds.
Well, I mean we're we're I mean we're committed to succeed really. [laughter] But uh but if we do fail uh uh I would
hope that we at least add to the body of knowledge such that those who follow may make fewer mistakes.
Mhm. Uh now if Mars were not enough uh you you are busy here on earth. The world is not enough.
第 6 章：Tesla and electric vehicles
That's right. Where [laughter] you where have you no limits my friend? Uh here on earth you are establishing uh a presence certainly uh with Tesla Motors.
Tell tell us a little bit about that. This is electric car company. Correct.
And this is no this is no hybrid car you could buy on a car lot. This thing goes from 0 to 60 in 4 seconds. Is that right?
Yes. Absolutely. 0 to 60 in under four seconds. It's faster, better acceleration than any uh Porsche currently in production and any Ferrari except the Enzo. Um, and it's twice the
energy efficiency of a Prius. So, it's uh you really have the moral high ground and uh you get to, you know, leave uh
the Ferrari guy in your dust. So, well, let me ask hard to beat.
Let me ask the obvious Well, and you don't look like one of those guys who's trying too hard in a Ferrari. Absolutely.
Yeah. Um you don't look like a jerk, you know.
[laughter]
in a bright banana yellow uh Lamborghini or or or Ferrari. I mean there's something I should point out about Tesla
which is uh we didn't you know Tesla is first car is is a sports car not because we think the world lacks for a sports
car uh but because it is the right entry point for the market. If you have a new technology the right place to enter is high unit cost low unit volume. uh just
as you know when when a when a new cell phone come out comes out or a new uh a new laptop or or some some new thing uh it tends to be expensive at first uh
because that they're figuring out all the issues and it takes time to optimize and then over time that that technology will become uh cheaper and cheaper and
so the model 2 of of Tesla uh and maybe I'm leaping ahead here but model two of Tesla is
a $49,000 four-door five passenger sedan um and that's uh that's going to be obviously broader market segment uh that
that that can make use of that car. And then Model 3 is intended to be around a $30,000 price point. Uh and so that's that's really affordable by by almost
everyone uh who's who who's who can buy a new car. So the idea is to drive to mass market as rapidly as possible uh but at only at the pace at which the
technology uh matures. So is Henry Ford and uh someone you admire?
Well, I think Henry Ford made some very important contributions to uh to business and obviously you know moving moving manufacturing line and that sort
of thing. Uh so I think he's certainly worthy of admiration. Uh he was a bit of an odd duck but you know uh certainly noteworthy but the interest in Tesla is
is not from the perspective of you know the world needs another car company.
It's more from uh the perspective of we have a very important environmental problem that needs to be addressed which is driven by the the burning of fossil
fuels and uh the increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and and global climate change which I think is going to be one of the most significant
issues of of the 21st century. And the only way to to really get around that in my view is is is really with an electric vehicle. Uh and then you need to pair
that up with uh a a a zero emission power generation method such as solar power. Mhm.
I think is solar power is going to be a really big deal. Tesla is not a hybrid car. Tesla Tesla is pure electric.
Pure electric. So, help connect the dots for me. Why aren't we seeing Tesla cars on the car lots then? What's Well, we we haven't made them yet. Uh
so, the the it's we're just finishing up the development right now and anybody can buy this. Yes.
How will you Well, actually, we've almost sold out of 2007 production. So, if somebody does want to buy next year's model, they they better act quickly. One of the primary
complaints about hybrid vehicles is they're not fast enough. You seem to overcome.
You won't have any trouble with this. In fact, really uh it's it's there's something uh uniquely better about uh
electric vehicles, which is that the torque response is immediate. So, if you want to pass someone, you I mean, you just the the the response of the car is
is is very immediate. It's just it's more fun to drive an electric car uh than it is to drive a gasoline car. You know, I was going to say that Tesla, the
第 7 章：Business model and market strategy
car, the name of the car company is no coincidence, is it? Explain a little bit about that.
Right. Uh the company's named after Nicola Tesla, who is an inventor. Uh he was originally from uh the sort of the
area of of of Yugoslavia in Europe, but he moved to America when he was young and uh and and was an inventor of the the AC induction motor, invented a lot
of the principles of magnetism. Uh so he he was a great man, a great great inventor. Um, and so the company's named in honor of him.
So these cars, the Tesla Roadster, the first the first issue of the Tesla Roadster available in 2007. Yes.
In the spring, the summer. How do you get on the waiting list?
Well, you you buy the car. You you basically put down a deposit and and we've actually Can you do that through the web?
Uh, yeah. We'll have, by the way, customer centers all around the country.
So, we'll have one in LA, one in the the Bay Area, Chicago, Miami, New York, uh, and and eventually nationwide customer centers, uh, where if somebody does want
to see the car in person, take a test drive, or see the car being worked on. I mean, we have this idea for the way that the cars are serviced that it should be
a really uh a really pleasant experience. So, so we have, you know, some some somewhere between like a Starbucks and an Apple store. So, you'd go in and you'd see the car being the
car is being worked on behind a glass partition. That would be your car you're watching.
Yeah. Or or somebody else's. Yeah. And but it's really clean. It's really clean, present, bright. You there be sort of a uh you know, coffee bar available, you know, just a we really
want to have a very pleasant experience that that you don't typically get if you go into a dealership.
Have you heard from Toyota? Have you heard from General Motors and Ford saying uh he's the company for sale? No, nobody's actually made a formal offer,
but the interest, you know, I think one of the one of the biggest values that that Tesla can can can provide is serving as an example to the rest of the
auto ind industry because right now the auto industry, you know, the big car companies believe that a a viable electric vehicle is not possible and b
if even if it was, people wouldn't buy it. So, we need to show that that neither of those are true. uh that the technology works, that people want to buy it and and that will be the most
effective way of of of really driving change in the in the auto industries by serving as as an example in that matter.
And if we were to sell the company to one of one of the big car companies, I think it would really slow things down. Mhm. You think so? Absolutely.
Mhm. You're very busy enterprising the part of your company that will explore space. You're very busy with this car
第 8 章：Managing dual ventures
company. Where do you find time to be CEO of two companies that size?
Well, I should correct you that I'm CEO of of SpaceX. Uh, and I'm chairman C of SpaceX, and that is really my day job. So, I spend 80% of my time on SpaceX.
Okay.
I am the chairman and the the principal owner of Tesla Motors. Uh, but I do not run it on a daily basis. You don't run that on a daily basis? No.
Well, that was really the question was how do you do how do you run those two large enterprises on a daily basis?
I I Is it a couple of phone calls to the Tesla folks? How's it going? and I'm busy with outer space right now. You guys got that covered?
I I spend about I spend about two two to three days a month on Tesla related business and almost all the rest of the time is on SpaceX. So SpaceX is very much my my day-to-day job.
Um and then I provide uh product guidance, strategic guidance um and and obviously funding for for Tesla like
Steve Jobs, right? So he runs Apple on a daily basis, but he also, you know, has uh oversight over Pixar. It's it's kind of like that.
Mhm. And in your day-to-day and and this is this is one of those silly lifestyle questions, but how early do you get up in the morning?
And where do you go to work physically? Is it an office? Yeah, I I go to work at SpaceX. How early do you get up in the morning?
You know, I'm not an early morning person. Uh so, so you so for young like for young engineers and for inventors and creators, they can sleep in till 10 or 11.
We have no fixed hours at SpaceX. And I mean my personally I would I tend to get up around 7:30 or 8 and be in the office
around you know 900 9:30. Uh but then I tend to stay about till about 8:00 p.m.
Okay. College students across America are saying oh brats. I thought he was going to say like noon.
But then you go into an office and you you sit with uh in a separate office away from those who are working or do you sit with them? No I just have a cubicle at SpaceX.
You have a cubicle? Yeah.
And are you surrounded by your colleagues there?
Absolutely. What is your hope in terms of the impact you will leave on culture, this civilization, this world, global
civilization? What is it that you you hope to leave here? Well, I think what I'd like to do is help solve some important problems. So, I think in in a small way, uh helped build the internet.
Uh and then with respect to the the global warming problem, the the transition from from uh away from oil
and other hydrocarbons to to something which is clean and sustainable. I hope to have an impact there. And then uh with respect to space, I hope to have an
impact in uh helping make humanity a multilanet species.
Elon Musk, thank you so much for being with us at Wire Science. See, uh let me get it straight. CEO of SpaceX and chairman of Tesla Motors. Yeah, I got
other titles, but that's about that's about right. I think that you're doing pretty good.
[laughter]
