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金融时报:永远要警惕衰落的超级大国

已有 44 次阅读2026-1-23 09:54 |个人分类:中国

金融时报:永远要警惕衰落的超级大国

2026-01-21 21:00:55

Always beware a declining superpower - Financial Times,即使在正常领导人治下,一个因地位焦虑而焦躁的美国也会对外发难  

贾南·加内什 Janan Ganesh  

  janan.ganesh@ft.com

本文刊发在金融时报,作者贾南·加内什是《金融时报》的专栏作家和副主编,为《金融时报》撰写国际政治评论,为《金融时报周末版》撰写文化评论。此前,他曾担任《经济学人》的政治记者。

七十年前,英国和法国这对衰落中的伙伴,曾试图通过武力夺取苏伊士运河。

奇怪的是,当时这两个国家的领导人都不是明显的沙文主义者。安东尼·艾登通晓阿拉伯语和波斯语,是战后入住唐宁街10号最有教养的首相之一。但地位焦虑会让理智的人做出鲁莽之举。

法国会在阿尔及利亚打一场注定失败的战争,英国则会置身于认为没有前景的欧洲联邦化项目之外,这些判断失误至今仍影响两国。

当然,美国的衰落并不像当年那样剧烈,毕竟仍是世界上最强大的国家,只是优势有所缩小。但从另一个角度看,美国的衰落更为严重。

英国当年还能安慰自己,把主导地位交给了一个民主的、讲英语的、主要由白人构成的超级大国。而如今,美国失去优势的对象是中国,一个在这些方面都毫无共同之处的国家。

因此,尽管客观上美国地位下滑的幅度远不及当年的英国,但主观感受上可能更加痛苦。输给谁这一点确实很重要。

再把特朗普这个对等级痴迷的人加入这个方程式——他几乎有着教科书般的阶层感知,你就会看到他如何对待格陵兰岛、在加勒比地区搞炮舰外交,以及其他类似苏伊士的举动,试图重拾失去的威望。

但即使在一位“正常”的总统领导下,美国如今的表现可能也不会太好。那些陷入地位焦虑的国家往往要故作强大。很少有超级大国能优雅地面对衰落。

若要证明这不仅仅是特朗普的问题,回想小布什时期就可见端倪。

当时几乎没人提“以规则为基础的自由主义秩序”,但美国已经感到不耐。即使撇开伊拉克战争不谈,小布什对国际刑事法院也极为轻蔑。这并不是对他的批评。全球层面确实存在大量伪装成自由主义、实则偏左的空洞象征主义。小布什本质上是坚定的亲西方派,他对其中一些内容的怀疑并非没有道理。

更大的问题在于,美国对这种法律主义世界秩序的冷淡态度,早在特朗普之前就已经开始。这里必然存在某种结构性的问题一直困扰着美国,而这个问题可能就是衰落。

由于本世纪以来美国在经济和科技方面的绝对表现依然令人惊叹,人们往往难以直观感受到美国的相对衰退。但这种衰退的确存在,体现在近年来美国制裁效果日益有限,难以在人工智能领域持续领先,以及中国敢于在西半球拥有战略资产等方面。美中之间的军事差距也不如千禧年初那样显著。

在这样的环境下,即便是一位传统的共和党总统,也可能会做出激进行动——虽然不至于像特朗普那样鲁莽。

一定要警惕地位下滑的人。那些生活水平高于自己出身的人,根本无法理解逆向滑落所带来的创伤。哪怕在绝对层面上状况依然不错,地位上的小幅下降也足以让人精神失衡。

魏玛时期的中产阶级在经济萧条中失去储蓄,于是他们在选举中支持了国家社会主义者,而不是最贫困的人群。在地缘政治中,这一过程只是以更宏大的形式重演。俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争,不就是对自苏联解体以来地位下降的抗议吗?

个人当然重要。事实上,特朗普让我开始相信“伟人论”。但有些模式似乎在时间、人物和地点之间都通用。有没有哪个衰落中的大国,在接受新地位的过程中没有表现出不稳定?

我还真不知道。特朗普的行为是这一趋势的极端表现,但本身可能无论如何都会发生,过去发生过,未来也还会发生。

修昔底德那句“强者为所欲为,弱者逆来顺受”最近被频繁引用。人们往往一本正经地点头,仿佛道出了国际关系的苦涩真理。但真是这样吗?

这句话暗示,国家越强大就会越具有侵略性。然而,美国在1946年前后,即特朗普出生时,是历史上最强盛的时期——当时制造了全世界一半的工业品,并且独享核垄断。

在这种权力巅峰时,美国并没有“为所欲为”,而是启动了马歇尔计划和北约,这些都是开明自利的杰作。美国重建了日本和德国,使之成为和平主义的民主国家。

美国变得好战,反而是发生在相对衰落之际。

领导人因素解释了部分原因,比如哈里·杜鲁门确实比特朗普“好”。但只有一部分原因如此。其余的则是结构性问题。一个国家站得高,自然容易宽厚大度。一旦地位下滑,偏执和攻击性便会滋生。

因此,我们可以预期,在美国适应自己从“唯一”超级大国变成“其中之一”的过程中,表现仍将激烈。

说起来,英国和法国最终也适应了,尽管衰落得更深。

没有人引用狄兰·托马斯那首关于衰落的名诗的另一部分。在反复敦促读者“不要温顺地走进那良夜”之后,他也承认放弃其实更合理:“智者在生命终点,知道黑暗是正确的。”

特朗普选择了愤怒,但换成其他人处在他的位置,也大概率如此。

Beware a declining superpower

???? Rod Stewart | ???? Artemis II | ???? Courtside couture Jan 22, 2026

https://www.theknowledge.com/p/beware-a-declining-superpower

In the headlines

Donald Trump unveiled his “Board of Peace” at the World Economic Forum in Davos this morning. Twenty-four countries have signed up to the US president’s would-be rival to the UN, including Hungary, Turkey and several Gulf states. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper says the UK isn’t yet ready to join because of concerns about Vladimir Putin’s possible involvement. Trump stayed tight-lipped about the “framework for a future deal” on Greenland announced yesterday. The US president dropped his tariff threats after speaking to Nato chief Mark Rutte, reportedly on topics including the renegotiation of a pact governing the stationing of US troops in Greenland and how to increase US investments in the semi-autonomous Danish territory. UK government borrowing fell sharply to a lower-than-expected £11.6bn in December, thanks to rising tax revenues. According to the Office for National Statistics, the deficit was 38% lower than in the same month a year earlier. Economist Ruth Gregory tells the FT the public finances are “finally showing signs of improvement”.

Comment
Goodbye to the old world order? George W Bush and Dick Cheney in 2000. Paul J Richards/AFP/Getty

Beware a declining superpower

Seventy years ago, says Janan Ganesh in the FT, Britain and France tried to take the Suez Canal by force. Neither was led by an obvious jingo, but as these two declining powers showed, “status anxiety makes sensible people do rash things”. America’s decline is not as sharp as theirs back then – it remains the strongest country on Earth, just by a reduced margin – but in a sense its fall is worse. Britain could console itself that it was handing the world over to a “democratic, anglophone and mostly white superpower”. America has lost ground to China, with which it shares nothing. So the experience of decline, though less steep, might be more harrowing. Add to this Donald Trump’s personal obsession with status, and you get the mistreatment of Greenland, the gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean and other “Suez-style” attempts to recover lost prestige.

The truth is that even under a “normal” president, the US might be “behaving badly around about now”. It is a rare superpower that takes decline well. And America was already chafing at the “rules-based international order” back when George W Bush was in office: think not just of Iraq, but of his “extreme disregard” for the International Criminal Court. (The latter is no complaint against him – he was right to mistrust left-wing “global flummery”.) For those who doubt America’s decline – pointing, perhaps, to its extraordinary economic and technological gains in recent decades – consider the limited effectiveness of US sanctions in recent years, the inability to maintain a lead in AI, and the winnowing of its military supremacy over China. Forget Trump. Under these circumstances, “even a garden variety Republican president would be lashing out”.

Ignore the old Thucydides line that “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. The US was at its mightiest in 1946, when it made half the manufactured goods in the world and held a nuclear monopoly. What did Washington do with all this power? Set up the Marshall Plan and Nato, and rebuilt Germany and Japan as pacifist democracies. The belligerent turn in American behaviour has come during its relative decline.

At the beginning of the year, The New York Times published a list of 52 places to go in 2026. In a useful sorting exercise, tens of thousands of readers have since clicked “save” on their favourites, which include the tiny, hardly touched Caribbean island of Saba; the unspoilt tavernas and crystal-clear Ionian waters of Messinia in Greece; the white sand beaches and painstakingly reconstructed 13th-century Shuri Castle in Okinawa, Japan; the Træna archipelago off the coast of Norway, with its midnight sun; the lushly biodiverse Osa Peninsula in Costa Rica, home to a population of sloths; and a train through the Canadian Rockies. To see the full list, click the image.
Inside politics

Rachel Reeves has finally had a sensible idea, says James Moore in The Independent. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the chancellor announced plans to reimburse certain visa fees and create “fast-track processing” for international companies wanting to expand into the UK – meaning top firms will be able to bring in hotshot coders from, say, India without all the grief this currently puts on their HR departments. It’s frequently lost in our increasingly toxic debate about immigration that the ability to “hustle in talent” matters. If Reeves and the Home Office can make this work, it would be a “thoroughly good thing”.

On this day in 2017, a pleasingly sozzled Rod Stewart gave a memorable performance helping announce the Scottish Cup draw on live TV. To watch the full video in all its glory – and we really think you should, it’s bliss – click here.

Enjoying The Knowledge?

Brooklyn Beckham: victim or villain?

Brooklyn Beckham’s diatribe against his parents this week really “smacks of entitlement”, says Sarah Vine in the Daily Mail. Whatever you think of David and Victoria, they’ve worked extraordinarily hard to build the “brand” so derided by their eldest son – and it’s that hard work that has allowed Brooklyn to enjoy the many great advantages he has had in life. The ungrateful nepo baby claims he has found “peace and relief” with his billionaire heiress wife, Nicola Peltz, but genuinely happy people don’t inflict pain on their own family. And spare me the guff about breaking free from a lifetime’s “enslavement” to his parents’ social media accounts – Nicola’s Instagram (3.4 million followers) is an unending stream of selfies. He has merely swapped one image-obsessed family for another.

This is what happens when you trade your family’s privacy for money, says Marina Hyde in The Guardian. The Beckhams have been commodifying Brooklyn “since he was a foetus”, selling the papers the story of Victoria’s pregnancy, the first pictures of him after his birth, and intimate photoshoots of their home and nursery. This, remember, is a couple who stayed up until 3am on their wedding night deciding which photos would feature in OK! magazine. Then social media came along, and they “channeled their business through its pipes”, never grasping how “weird and potentially corrosive” all this commodification is. The sad thing is, they’re not alone. Billions of ordinary people are doing the same, sucked into Big Tech’s lie that “being connected” online is more important than privacy. If the UK government does ban social media for under-16s, perhaps they should also forbid parents from plastering their kids all over these platforms from the day they’re born. Not to interrupt Brooklyn’s brief moment in the spotlight, but he is “the least of it”.

Four Nasa astronauts will soon venture “further into space than ever before”, says Kaya Burgess in The Times. In early February, weather permitting, NASA’s Artemis II crew will blast off from the Kennedy Space Centre in Florida on a 10-day mission to orbit the moon. The team will spend – or endure – the 257,061-mile journey there and back in the Orion spacecraft, which is the size of a Ford transit van and fitted with only the bare essentials: a water dispenser, a food warmer and a waste management system (urine is vented out; solid waste is collected). If all goes well, Artemis III will attempt the first moon landing since 1972 “as early as mid-2027”.

Quirk of history

There’s a clear model for what Donald Trump should do with Greenland, says Marc Thiessen in The Washington Post: the US naval base in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. The lease agreement for the site was first agreed in February 1903 under President Theodore Roosevelt, and updated in 1934 so that it would continue in perpetuity. Cuba retains its sovereignty over the rest of the island, and despite the rise of a hostile communist dictatorship that would love nothing more than to boot the Americans out, the agreement remains in place. Rather than owning all of Greenland, the US should just “lease the parts it needs”.

Snapshot answer

It’s the Japanese tennis player Naomi Osaka, who wore a curious, “jellyfish-inspired” outfit to walk to the court for her first round match at the Australian Open, says Ellie Violet Bramley in The Guardian. The 28-year-old wore a miniskirt over very wide-legged trousers and a wide-brimmed hat with a veil, and carried a parasol. Some jellyfish-esque elements were also incorporated into her on-court outfit, which featured a watery turquoise and green palette and soft frills on the warm-up jacket and dress, alluding to tentacles. Thankfully, after all that, she won.


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