超越欧洲歌唱大赛：加入欧盟为何违背加拿大的经济现实

https://www.policymagazine.ca/beyond-eurovision-why-joining-the-eu-would-defy-canadas-economic-reality/

转载 https://www.thebusinesscouncil.ca/publication/beyond-eurovision-why-joining-the-eu-would-defy-canadas-economic-reality/ 

作者：马克·卡米莱里（Mark Camilleri）——欧盟、加拿大事务委员会特别顾问 2026年2月17日

马克·卡米莱里  是加拿大欧盟贸易投资协会（CEUTIA）的主席兼创始人。他是一位常驻布鲁塞尔的加拿大和欧盟监管律师，同时也是加拿大商业理事会的欧盟特别顾问。
Mark Camilleri is President and founder of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association (CEUTIA). He is a Brussels-based Canada and EU regulatory lawyer and Special EU Advisor to the Business Council of Canada.

发表于《政策杂志》（Policy Magazine）

2025年1月，《经济学人》提出了一个问题，这个问题在不久前还显得异想天开：加拿大是否应该加入欧盟？

在当前地缘政治动荡、美国局势难以预测、以及加拿大自身对世界地位进行深刻反思之际，这一想法引发了法律、政治和社会科学领域的广泛讨论，并且根据Abacus民意调查显示，也引起了广大公众的关注。

在近期发表于《政策》杂志的一篇文章中，全球治理论坛执行主任奥古斯托·洛佩兹-克拉罗斯指出，在一个地理位置的重要性远不及价值观、制度和治理的世界里，重新构想欧盟成员国身份本身是可能的，而加拿大则是理想的候选国。

自2025年就任加拿大总理以来，马克·卡尼一直表现出对欧洲的倾向。在实质性层面，卡尼政府一直在欧洲范围内正式确立战略伙伴关系，包括去年6月签署的欧盟-加拿大战略伙伴关系，该伙伴关系涵盖在贸易、数字化转型和气候变化等领域加强合作。2月15日，在2026年慕尼黑安全会议上，加拿大正式加入欧盟的“欧洲安全行动”（SAFE）计划，该计划旨在向成员国提供贷款，用于投资国防能力建设。

从软实力角度来看，他曾将加拿大描述为“最欧洲化的非欧洲国家”，在上个月著名的达沃斯演讲中援引了欧洲联邦主义者瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔的言论，并在其政府的2025年联邦预算中，甚至提出了加拿大参加欧洲歌唱大赛的想法。所有这些都强烈表明了加拿大在文化上（即便在政治上）与欧洲的紧密联系。

然而，尽管加拿大可能很快会再次登上欧洲舞台，这一次是以自己的身份参赛（年轻的席琳·迪翁曾在1988年代表瑞士赢得该项赛事），但毫无疑问，加拿大不会寻求加入欧盟，这也不是总理卡尼去年明确表示的目标。当被问及加拿大加入欧盟的问题时，卡尼总理回应道：“这不是我们的意图，也不是我们选择的道路。”

然而，加入欧盟的想法或许引人入胜——对某些人来说甚至极具诱惑力——但它与加拿大的经济现实并不相符。在当今世界，地理位置仍然至关重要，而加拿大与北美经济的联系也十分紧密。

加拿大约四分之三的商品出口仍然流向美国，而一体化的供应链也仍然主要集中在北美大陆。尽管这种情况暴露了加拿大经济主权面临的脆弱性，加拿大政府也正在努力解决这些问题，但加入欧盟并非解决之道。

完全加入欧盟对加拿大的影响将是巨大的。除了需要采用欧盟关税并在美欧之间设立海关边界之外，加拿大还需要全面采纳欧盟的法律体系（即欧盟法律体系），涵盖产品标准、数据治理、竞争规则和国家援助规则等各个方面。这种监管调整成本高昂且复杂，势必会动摇加拿大在北美乃至全球市场的经济。

然而，拒绝加入欧盟并不意味着拒绝欧洲。欧盟仍然是世界上规模最大、最富裕的市场之一。它正围绕绿色和数字化优先事项进行再工业化，大力投资国防和韧性建设，并积极寻求可靠的合作伙伴。

In January 2025, The Economist posed a question that, until recently, would have seemed fanciful: should Canada join the European Union?

At a moment of geopolitical upheaval, U.S. unpredictability, and soul-searching about Canada’s place in the world, the idea sparked debate across law, politics, and the social sciences, and, according to an Abacus poll, among the public at large.

In a recent Policy article, Global Governance Forum Executive Director Augusto Lopez-Claros argues that, in a world where geography matters less than values, institutions and governance, it is possible to reimagine EU membership itself, with Canada as an ideal candidate.

Since becoming prime minister in 2025, Mark Carney has consistently demonstrated an inclination toward Europe. In substantive terms, the Carney government has been formalizing strategic partnerships across Europe, including a EU-Canada Strategic Partnership signed last June, covering enhanced cooperation on trade, digital transition and climate change. On February 15th at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, Canada formally joined the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program of loans to member states to invest in defence capabilities.

In soft power terms, he has described Canada as the most European non-European country, evoked European federalist Václav Havel in his famous Davos speech last month, and, in his government’s 2025 federal budget, even floated the idea of Canada participating in the Eurovision Song Contest, all strong gestures of cultural if not political alignment with Europe.

Yet, while Canada may soon be singing again on a European stage, this time in its own colours (a young Céline Dion famously won the contest in 1988 for Switzerland), there should be no doubt that it will not be seeking a seat at the EU table itself, nor is this an ambition the prime minister has set out to pursue, as he made clear last year. Asked about Canada joining the EU, Prime Minister Carney responded, “That’s not the intent. That’s not the pathway we’re on.”

However intriguing — and, for some, enticing — the idea of EU membership may be, it defies Canada’s economic reality. In today’s world, geography does still matter, and Canada is deeply embedded in the North American economy.

Roughly three-quarters of Canadian merchandise exports continue to flow to the United States, and integrated supply chains remain overwhelmingly continental. While this situation has exposed vulnerabilities to Canada’s economic sovereignty that the Canadian government is correctly trying to address, EU membership is not the answer.

The implications of full EU membership would be colossal for Canada. Beyond the need to adopt EU tariffs and set up a customs border with the US, it would require wholesale adoption of the EU’s body of law (its acquis) — from product standards and data governance to competition and state-aid rules. Such regulatory realignment would be costly and complex and would invariably destabilize the Canadian economy in the North American market and beyond.

Yet, rejecting EU membership does not mean rejecting Europe. The European Union is still one of the world’s largest and wealthiest markets. It is re-industrializing around green and digital priorities, investing heavily in defence and resilience, and actively seeking reliable partners for energy and critical minerals.

What is more, the European Union is already Canada’s second-largest trading partner and one of its most important investment partners. Since the provisional application of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) in 2017, nearly all tariffs have been eliminated and bilateral trade in goods and services has grown markedly.

For all of these reasons, the Canadian government is right to prioritize Europe within its trade diversification strategy. Yet, despite clear opportunities and sustained political attention, a great deal of commercial potential in the Canada-EU relationship remains unrealized.

Although CETA has been in place for nearly a decade and has delivered tangible benefits, it is being under-utilized, particularly by Canadian exporters. According to the European Commission’s 2025 ex-post evaluation, only about six in 10 Canadian goods exports to the EU claim CETA preferences. Utilization has improved over time, but remains uneven, leaving meaningful tariff savings unrealized for many Canadian businesses.

However intriguing — and, for some, enticing — the idea of EU membership may be, it defies Canada’s economic reality. In today’s world, geography does still matter, and Canada is deeply embedded in the North American economy.

In addition, the ex-post evaluation points to other factors leading to CETA under-utilization, including challenges related to regulatory complexity, rules-of-origin compliance, limited awareness (especially among SMEs) and the slow pace of regulatory cooperation.

In short, CETA is delivering, but well below its potential.

Recognizing the untapped potential of this relationship, Canada and the EU are working to increase areas of cooperation and deepen the collaboration. At the June 2025 leaders’ summit, Canada and the EU signalled their clear intention to move towards a more integrated partnership.

The agreed work plan, set out in the leaders’ communiqué, points to a deeper form of economic integration that builds on CETA while extending well beyond traditional trade policy, a trajectory that can be described as a “CETA Plus” model.

Canada’s participation in EU defence initiatives, its deeper cooperation with the EU on digital governance and artificial intelligence, and closer alignment on critical minerals supply chains all reinforce the same message: closer economic integration without a political union.

This is a prudent and pragmatic path that Canada can and should follow, and one that signals a level of ambition in Canada-EU economic relations that has been largely absent since CETA was signed.

But political ambition on its own will not deliver results. Trade agreements can open doors, but it is businesses that ultimately walk through them. The question, then, is how best to support businesses in making fuller use of CETA and translating policy ambition into commercial outcomes?

The 2025 CETA evaluation highlights areas where further progress is needed, particularly in respect of regulatory cooperation, conformity assessment, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and outreach to exporters.

And while the architects’ mutual recognition framework under CETA (which provides the legal framework through which Canadian architects can work in Europe and vice-versa) is now finally operational, it has taken years to complete and has yet to trigger broader replication across other professions.

Greater focus on improving these areas is essential to ensure that CETA’s institutional framework functions and delivers as intended.

Moreover, if Canada is serious about trade diversification with Europe and about investing itself more deeply in the EU’s economic future, businesses must be more actively engaged in shaping priorities — particularly in identifying areas where deeper regulatory cooperation would make the greatest commercial difference — and better supported in making effective use of what CETA already offers. This requires clearer and more accessible information about CETA and its opportunities.

It is clear that the federal government recognizes these challenges and has committed resources toward outreach and support. While these efforts are welcome, businesses also need more concrete, forward-looking guidance to help inform commercial decisions and investment. One tangible and cost-effective way to provide this is through a new Canada-EU economic study.

CETA itself was born from a joint economic study published in 2008 — one that identified untapped opportunities and helped galvanize political momentum. Eighteen years on, the global economy and the world have changed. Digital trade, industrial policy, supply-chain resilience, and economic security now shape commercial strategy in ways barely contemplated at the time.

Advancing trade diversification in Europe, however, requires a new, forward-looking study that identifies where future liberalization, regulatory alignment, and strategic cooperation would generate the greatest commercial returns. This will help to translate political ambition into real opportunities that firms can better understand and act on, and help direct investment into new strategic areas.

Canada is not going to be the 28th EU member state, nor does it need to join the European Union to deepen its relationship with Europe. What it does need is to continue to work on improving CETA and delivering on CETA Plus. It also needs to communicate to businesses a credible, compelling business narrative that translates political priorities into commercial opportunities and enables Canadian companies to make fuller use of the tools already available to them.

Without that, political vision risks outpacing commercial reality. And if ambition is not matched by execution, Canada may find that while it is welcome on the Eurovision stage, it will be singing the blues when it comes to trade diversification with Europe.

Mark Camilleri is President and founder of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association (CEUTIA). He is a Brussels-based Canada and EU regulatory lawyer and Special EU Advisor to the Business Council of Canada.