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斯塔默的 中国重启 政策揭示了他的外交政策

已有 2 次阅读2026-3-1 03:13 |个人分类:Vince Cable

克里斯·梅森:斯塔默的“中国重启”政策揭示了他的外交政策


克里斯·梅森,BBC政治编辑,上海

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3r10n94jxro


英国新闻协会(PA Media)报道,英国首相基尔·斯塔默于2026年1月30日访问了位于中国上海的豫园。本周首相访华战略的核心在于,一些人所说的中国经济正在“向上看”。


他们的意思是,中国是一个受到严格控制的国家,中国共产党无处不在。因此,要实现重大变革,高层必须发出清晰明确的信息,而一旦信息清晰,人们的观念或许就会发生重大转变。


唐宁街希望基尔·斯塔默爵士为期三天的访问能够引起关注,其中包括在北京会见习近平主席和李克强总理,以及随后访问上海。


此次访问期间,政界和商界人士的握手寒暄并不少。从基尔·斯塔默爵士的角度来看,初步迹象似乎是积极的。正如我们的驻华记者劳拉·比克尔报道的那样,中国官方媒体——中共的喉舌——在其30分钟的晚间新闻节目中,用了18分钟的时间来报道总理与总统会晤当天的访问。


我采访过的随总理出访的体育和文化机构以及企业都希望,这次访问能成为一个重要的契机,为他们开启新的机遇。


“只要这不是一次性的访问就行,”一位人士对我说。总理的官方发言人告诉我们,这并非一次“一次性”访问。与此同时,随着一连串西方领导人的​​到访,中国可以欣喜地看到自身的重要性。


法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和加拿大总理马克·卡尼最近都访问了中国。卡尼很快就体会到了,如果特朗普总统认为某个国家正考虑与北京走得太近,这样的访问在白宫会引发怎样的反响。简而言之:反响很差。


基尔·斯塔默爵士也曾有过类似的经历,只不过程度较轻。当时,特朗普总统表示,英国与中国做生意“非常危险”。在总统训诫的“里氏震级”上,首相团队认为这算是小事一桩,尤其是在随后的几次交锋中,特朗普称习近平为“朋友”。


斯塔默爵士在接受我的采访时补充道,“简单地说我们会无视”中国是愚蠢的。在过去几天漫长的飞行和工作中,我看到了首相在对华立场上的坚定信念。他显然觉得荒谬,这次访问与他的前任特蕾莎·梅2018年的上次访问之间竟然隔了八年。他认为这八年白白浪费了,想要弥补失去的时间。而且,他似乎很乐意指出与保守党之间的分歧。保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克前几天告诉BBC,如果她现在是首相,她就不会来英国。


中国解除对英国议员和贵族的制裁,斯塔默表示希望习近平主席访问英国。英国表示,中国将放宽对英国游客的旅行限制。医疗保健、签证和威士忌:英国和中国从斯塔默的访问中获得了什么?那么,我们能从基尔·斯塔默爵士取得的成就中学到什么呢?


双方的寒暄和热情洋溢的言辞层出不穷。这是因为,正如我之前提到的,这两者都是“经济前景光明”的动力。此外,还有一些具体的协议:英国向中国出口威士忌的关税减半,以及取消2021年对部分议员实施的制裁。随后,一项提议被提出,但尚未落实。首相表示,英国游客在中国停留30天以下无需签证的规定将被取消。但中国政府表示,他们只是在“积极考虑”此事。


基尔·斯塔默爵士向我坚称这项提议将会实现,但也承认尚未确定生效日期。“我们正在取得进展,”他说。


负责谈判细节的部长和官员们希望,随着两国关系更加紧密和融洽,双方能够逐步扩大合作带来的利益。但或许难怪有些人对这种“融洽”感到不安。


批评人士认为,中国根本就是一个不可信赖的国家。他们指出人权侵犯问题,例如维吾尔族人的困境,以及香港民主派媒体大亨黎智英被监禁一事。其他人则谈到中国的网络攻击,或者英国军情五处在圣诞节前向议会发出警报,称中国在威斯敏斯特从事间谍活动。


安全部长丹·贾维斯将其描述为“中国秘密且蓄意干涉我国主权事务的企图”。


为了说明这种不信任,我此行遇到的每个人,从政府官员到企业和文化代表团成员再到记者,都比我以往任何一次旅行都采取了更多的电子安全防范措施。大多数人都持有临时许多人的电话号码都被取消了,而且他们把常用的电子设备都留在了家里。


如此看来,两国关系正在升温,这真是一个独特的背景。


英国首相基尔·斯塔默爵士在北京人民大会堂出席2026年英中贸易全国委员会会议并发表讲话。此次访问期间,他有来自英国企业和文化机构的代表陪同。在过去近19个月的任期内,我一直关注着首相在国内和国外的行动。如今,他终于阐述了自己的外交政策愿景,并开始将其付诸行动和访问。


“我们必须参与到这个动荡的世界中来,”这是我与他交谈时他总结自己的方针。“我认为,我从未见过国际局势如此直接地影响到国内事务。”


批评人士因为他频繁出访国外而称他为“从不在国内的基尔”,这让他感到既恼火又恼火。他曾多次试图阻止此次访问,反复强调海外事件会影响国内生活成本。甚至在人民大会堂与习近平主席会谈时,他也提到了超市的物价。


基尔·斯塔默爵士一直寻求与特朗普总统保持密切关系,并且至少目前如此。这得益于他谨慎的公开言论,以及仅在他认为绝对必要的情况下才批评总统,例如最近就格陵兰岛问题以及在阿富汗伤亡的英军士兵问题。他称英国在脱欧后已经“重置”了与欧盟的关系,并与印度达成了贸易协议。而现在,他却身处中国。


不可避免地,如果他过于偏向某一方,就会限制他在其他方面的选择。正如他向呼吁重新加入欧盟关税同盟的工党同僚指出的那样,如果英国重新加入欧盟关税同盟,那么与其他国家达成的贸易协议将不复存在。


与中国走得太近,就等着承受白宫的严厉训斥吧。权衡利弊的因素不胜枚举。


“我是一个务实主义者,一个英国式的务实主义者,运用常识,”首相在飞机上告诉我们,并表示他的愿望是  “让英国重新面向世界”。


他的策略是向外拓展,多方向发展,循序渐进。


Chris Mason: What Starmer's China reset tells us about his foreign policy


Chris Mason  Political editor, Shanghai


PA Media Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits Yuyuan Gardens in Shanghai, China, January 30, 2026.At the heart of the strategy behind the prime minister's visit to China this week is what some describe as China's "looking up economy".

What they mean by this is this is a tightly controlled state where the Chinese Communist Party is ever present. So, to deliver significant change the message from the top has to be abundantly clear, and when it is big shifts in outlook might then follow.

Downing Street hopes Sir Keir Starmer's three-day visit, including meeting President Xi and Premier Li in Beijing and a subsequent trip to Shanghai, will be noticed.

There has been no shortage of political and corporate glad-handing.

The early indications, from Sir Keir's point of view, appear positive.

As our China correspondent Laura Bicker has reported, Chinese state media, the mouthpiece of the Communist party, spent 18 minutes of its flagship 30-minute evening bulletin discussing the prime minister's visit on the day he met the president.

And of the sporting and cultural organisations I have spoken to that have accompanied the prime minister on this trip, as well as the businesses, there is a hope this could be an important moment - that opens up new opportunities for them.

"As long as this isn't a one-off," one put it to me. This was not a "one and done" visit, the prime Minister's official spokesman told us.

China, meanwhile, can revel in the reality that it matters, as a parade of Western leaders pass through.

Carney was to find out shortly afterwards how such a visit can go down in the White House if President Donald Trump reckons a country is considering getting too close to Beijing. The short answer: not very well.

Sir Keir had his own, more minor taste of that, when President Trump said it was "very dangerous" for the UK to do business with China.

On the rhetorical Richter scale of presidential admonishments, this was seen by the prime minister's team as pretty minor, not least because later in the same exchanges Trump described Xi as a "friend".

Sir Keir added, in an interview with me, that "it would be foolhardy to simply say we would ignore" China.

Over the last few days of long flights and long days, I have seen a conviction in the prime minister's case on China. He clearly finds it absurd that there was an eight-year gap between this visit and the last one by one of his predecessors, Theresa May, in 2018.

He sees these as wasted years and wants to make up for lost time. And he sees a dividing line with the Conservatives he appears happy to point out. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch told the BBC the other day that were she prime minister now, she would not have come on this trip.

So what can we take from what Sir Keir has managed to achieve?

There has been no shortage of schmoozing and warm words. That is because both are fuel in this "looking up economy" I mentioned.

Then there are the concrete agreements: the halving of tariffs, or import taxes, on whisky sold by the UK to China and the removal of sanctions imposed on some parliamentarians back in 2021.

And then there was an idea announced, but not yet delivered. The prime minister said the requirement for British visitors to need a visa to visit China for under 30 days would be scrapped. But the Chinese government said it was something they were merely "actively considering."

Sir Keir insisted to me it will happen, but acknowledged there was no start date agreed. "We are making progress," he said.

Ministers and the officials working on the minutiae of the negotiations are hopeful there can be a step-by-step ratcheting up of dividends associated with a closer, warmer relationship.

But perhaps little wonder some are queasy about this warmth. Critics say China is simply a state that cannot be trusted.

They point to human rights abuses, such as the plight of the Uyghurs and also to the jailing in Hong Kong of Jimmy Lai, the pro-democracy media tycoon.

Others talk about Chinese cyber attacks or MI5 issuing an alert to parliament before Christmas over Chinese spying in Westminster.

Security minister Dan Jarvis described that as a "covert and calculated attempt by China to interfere with our sovereign affairs."

And to illustrate that lack of trust, everyone I have encountered on this trip, from government officials to the corporate and cultural delegation to journalists, have taken more electronic security precautions than on any other trip I have been on. Most are on temporary phone numbers and many have left their usual digital devices at home.

Quite the backdrop, then, for a relationship being warmed up.

PA Media Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaking during the 2026 UK-China Business Council at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, during his visit to ChinaRepresentatives from British businesses and cultural institution accompanied Sir Keir on the visit

But having followed the prime minister, at home and abroad, for the nearly 19 months of his time in office, he has now set out his vision for foreign policy - and begun to match it with actions and visits.

"We have to engage with this volatile world" is how he summarised his approach when I spoke to him. "I don't think I have known a time when what is happening internationally is impacting what is going on back home so directly."

He is stung and irritated by the label lobbed at him by critics who describe him as "never here Keir" because of the number of foreign trips he does.

He has notably tried to push back on this trip, repeatedly talking about how events overseas have a bearing on the cost of living at home. He even made a reference to prices in the supermarkets when he was talking to President Xi in the Great Hall of the People.

Sir Keir has sought a close relationship with President Trump and secured it. For now at least. This is grounded in being judicious in his public remarks and only criticising the president when he thinks it is absolutely essential, such as recently over Greenland and the British troops killed and injured in Afghanistan.

He describes the UK as having "reset" its relationship with the European Union post-Brexit and has done a trade deal with India. And now, here he is in China.

Inevitably, if he leans too far in one direction, it limits his options in another. Rejoin the EU's customs union, and those trade deals with others would be gone, as he points out to his Labour colleagues who have called for just that.

Be seen to get too close to China, and prepare for the verbal hairdryer from the White House.

The trade-offs are legion.

"I'm a pragmatist, a British pragmatist, applying common sense," the prime minister told us on the plane, saying his desire was to "make Britain face outwards again."

Outwards and in multiple directions is his approach, moving incrementally.


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