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British HS2 will be most expensive railway on Earth, 20 times that of China

已有 261 次阅读2017-7-19 09:48 |个人分类:英国



HS2 'will be most expensive railway on Earth at £403m a mile'

First 6.6 miles from Euston to Old Oak Common could cost more than £8bn


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hs2-high-speed-railway-most-expensive-world-403-million-mile-michael-byng-a7843481.html

manifesto-hs2.jpg
HS2’s first phase between London and Birmingham will cost almost £48bn PA


Britain’s new high-speed rail line will be the most expensive railway in the world with costs per mile expected to reach £403m, according to Government calculations. 

The HS2’s first phase between London and Birmingham will cost almost £48bn, according to expert analysis commissioned by the Department for Transport (DfT). 

Michael Byng, who created the method used by Network Rail to cost its projects, made the estimates for DfT and said the line would cost double the official figure and 15 times more than the cost per mile of the TGV in France, according to the Sunday Times.

The scheme could cost up to £104bn in total, including extensions to Manchester and Leeds, he believes. The first 6.6 miles from Euston to Old Oak Common would cost £8.25bn, or £1.25bn a mile.

The senior civil servant responsible for the project reportedly told Mr Byng he was “very worried” the official costscould be unrealistic.

Former transport minister John Spellar said the controversial project was an “ever-deepening bottomless pit”.

“HS2 has not questioned the figure, or my methodology, nor have they come up with any structured estimate of their own,” Mr Byng told the Sunday Times

“A couple of days later I got a call from the DfT saying ‘Look, if 6.6 miles is going to cost us £8.25bn, what chance have we got of getting to Birmingham?’ I said: ‘I’ll work it out for you.’

“Michael Hurn, the project sponsor at the DfT, is a very good guy and is very worried at the advice he’s been given [by HS2]. The big contractors are also worried. They’ve said when they submit a bid it’s nowhere near [as low as] the estimates that HS2 have got for the job.” 

HS2 said it “did not recognise” Mr Byng’s figure and was “confident we will deliver the project on time and on budget”. 

The DfT said: “We are keeping a tough grip on costs and the project is on time and on budget.”

It comes after Chancellor Philip Hammond got the cost wrong by at least £20bn in a radio interview.

Mr Hammond said HS2 will cost the taxpayer £32bn, when in fact it is expected to cost more than £52bn.

The Chancellor had been attacking Labour's policy costings, which he claimed “don't add up”, when he made the ironic gaffe.

The project has also been mired in delays and complications. The engineering firm that was handed the multimillion-pound contract to develop HS2 pulled out of the project less than two monthsafter it was selected to complete the work.

The Government confirmed on 9 February that it had appointed US-based company CH2M to help develop a section of the network north of Crewe to Manchester and from the West Midlands to Yorkshire.

But in March, CH2M said it had decided to withdraw its interest, following what it called “continuing discussions” between HS2 and CH2M over the award of the contract.


HS2: the UK looks to China

BY GARY PETERS  DEC 16 2015

Dr John Disney says the UK Government is convinced that the Chinese are worthy partners.
http://www.railway-technology.com/features/featurehs2-the-uk-looks-to-china-4730716/


Although the legislative process for the UK's High-Speed 2 project is not yet complete, Chancellor George Osborne is already trying to woo Chinese investors. What does Asia’s economic powerhouse, which is keen to export its high-speed rail technology, have to offer the UK rail sector?


Handshake osborne

On a visit to China in September, British Chancellor George Osborne spoke of the growing bond between the two countries. Osborne wants to make China the UK's second-largest trading partner by 2025, and one key part of this could be China's involvement in High-Speed 2 (HS2).

Chinese firms have been urged to bid for seven contracts worth £11.8bn in total covering the first phase of the mammoth project, a new high-speed rail (HSR) line that is set to run between London and Birmingham, as well as other infrastructure projects in the north of England.

"We are truly entering a golden era of cooperation between our two countries and it's crucial that businesses and communities from across the UK feel the full benefit of forging closer economic links with China," said the Chancellor.

The forging of links can be seen in Chinese investment in energy projects, and Osborne now wants to add rail to the chain.

Dr John Disney, a senior lecturer at the Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University, who has also worked as a consultant to the Department for Transport, says: "The government has already announced Chinese investment in the UK nuclear power industry, which is a signal that they are convinced that the Chinese are worthy partners."

Dr Michael Synnott, senior teaching fellow in strategy and international business at the University of Warwick, agrees. "When it comes to infrastructure, it looks like the UK Government is saying that China is the way forward," he says.

China's appeal

But why is this the case? After Osborne's announcement, HS2 chief executive Simon Kirby said it was about bringing the "the best technology into the UK".

"Internationally, there are a number of big organisations who have been really successful in high-speed rail," Kirby added in an October interview with the New Civil Engineer (NCE). "We are encouraging relationships between organisations that have delivered on this scale and UK suppliers.

"We are looking for a supply chain that a contractor can convince us is reliable and innovative."

China certainly has the experience of building HSR on a large scale. It has the world's largest HSR network with over 16,000km of track as of December 2014, all of which has been built since the 200km/h Qinhuangdao - Shenyang HSR line opened in 2003.

"China's construction costs have been pegged by the World Bank at roughly $17m to $21m per kilometre, compared to $25m to $39m in Europe."

Then there is cost. In its domestic projects, China's construction costs have been pegged by the World Bank at roughly $17m to $21m per kilometre, compared to $25m to $39m in Europe.

According to Lei Chen, head of the railway control and simulation group at the Birmingham Centre for Railway Research and Education, China's high-speed lines go "across a large area of the country with significantly different weather, geotechnical conditions and operational environments".

"In my opinion, these railway projects highly promote Chinese railway equipment R&D, system integration capability, railway operation experience and railway engineer education," he explains. "I think collaborations in all these areas could benefit British railway projects such as HS2."

However, he is wary of suggesting that China is the "number one go-to country" for high-speed expertise, adding that "a positive global competition in Britain's high-speed railway market will be beneficial to the British rail sector".

Whether or not this global competition for HS2 will materialise is as yet unknown, but Synnott says that China's track record ensures it is best-positioned to deliver the specification of HS2, with speeds of up to 400 km/h under consideration.

"The story of Japan has been lost somewhat and been replaced by - not a mythology, because it's all real - but this celebration of Chinese progress in HSR. The end result is they know how to build and run fast railways.

"We don't seem to have the competency to carry through a project anything like HS2. That ability to carry through a big project seems to be a bit beyond us."

Ensuring the UK benefits

If Synnott is correct and Chinese expertise is drafted in to fill this gap, the key, according to Peter Campbell, senior policy manager at the Association for Consultancy and Engineering, is to ensure that the UK workforce benefits.

"The UK Government can and must stipulate as part of [any] deal that the UK's workforce benefits from the skills developed as part of the investment," he explains.

"What we must do is to ensure we learn from areas of Chinese expertise and at the same time develop our own expertise so that this can be used for future projects."

Campbell's view rings true with what Simon Kirby told the NCE: "We have some fantastic capability in this country, some great skills and this is a great opportunity.

"However we have not built a greenfield railway of this scale for about 120 years," he said, adding that the project is about "skills and jobs in this country".

The "great opportunity" that Kirby highlighted will also need to benefit UK firms from a business perspective, not just skills.

"It is important that UK SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] involved in the rail industry supply chain work together to blow their own trumpets," says Disney.

"I'm sure that they would welcome the opportunity to supply to a Chinese-owned rolling stock manufacturer if the latter won the contract to supply HS2 rolling stock.

"The UK has its own vast railway skills... and we need to ensure that the wealth of that railway expertise is fully utilised."

Warning signs: safety and disillusionment

For all the talk of skills and opportunities, not everyone has welcomed Osborne's overtures to China with universal praise and applause.

The hybrid bill for phase one of HS2 has not yet been passed, and the timing of Osborne's announcement has irked some.

Richard Houghton from anti-HS2 campaign group HS2 Action Alliance says: "We weren't surprised, but we did feel they should stick to the process and allow the hybrid bill to pass law, and then start offering contracts.

"From a hard commercial point of view, it does rather muddy the waters somewhat in the fact that this initially was a British railway for the British regions, which was going to develop our skills."

Using Chinese investment does not mean this won't be the case; although it is something the government will have to be wary of if China accepts its invitation.

"The UK Government can and must stipulate as part of [any] deal that the UK's workforce benefits from the skills developed as part of the investment."

As for other risks, Disney highlights the possibility that Chinese contractors will struggle to deal with the UK's very different operating environment.

"The Chinese work on much faster timescales than the West, especially the UK," he says. "There is, therefore, the fear that they will become disillusioned about the slow progress of HS2 and may withdraw their support before the project reaches fruition."

Safety concerns and past incidents on China's HSR network have also been highlighted. A collision between two high-speed trains in 2011 in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province resulted in 40 deaths and hundreds of injuries, with the World Bank noting the disaster was attributed to "inadequate testing of a new design of signalling equipment, which lacked proper fail-safe features".

Disney says the HS2 project should wary of this, as "railways in the UK are highly protective of their high safety standards".

China's desire for HS2

Much of the debate around potential safety concerns is hypothetical, however. At the time of writing, no contracts with Chinese firms have been signed - and then there is the question of whether or not China will want to invest.

"If you look at the Chinese, as they have worked in Africa and other places, they are determined not to get involved with the politics of the host country," explains Synnott. "HS2 is not going to be built without a lot of fuss.

"I suspect there will be quite a lot of fighting in terms of protests. The Chinese might say 'this could mess up our costs and our image'."

In addition, Zhao Jing, a transportation professor at Beijing Jiatong University, was quoted as saying by NBC News that he doubted that China's HSR technology "has a bright future in Europe", adding that Europe might protect its market.

The crucial difference is that the UK seems more determined than ever to become China's premier partner in the West. When all is said and done, that could be the clincher and enough to whet China's appetite for HS2.

在这件事上中国的成绩让外国人心塞不已

2017年07月19日 06:36 新浪综合
     参考消息网7月19日报道(文/陈言 郑斌 袁悦)这两天,一条关于英国“天价”高铁的消息吸引了不少网友关注。

  今年初获准动工建造的英国高速铁路2号(即英国HS2工程),被爆出造价严重超支,“每公里造价是中国的20倍”!

英国《独立报》网站报道截图英国《独立报》网站报道截图

  这一数据来自于由英国政府委托专家撰写的评估报告:估算称,每建设大约1公里的铁路,就要付出近3亿英镑(约合人民币26亿元)——根据2015年的数据,中国高铁每公里的造价,约为1.3亿元人民币;

  因此,全长348公里的HS2工程,将要耗资1040亿英镑(约合人民币9230亿元)的“天价”,可谓“全球最贵”!

英国HS2工程示意图英国HS2工程示意图

  但即使是“天价”,英国政府也曾多次明确支持推进HS2工程。用英国工党影子内阁交通大臣玛丽·克雷的话说,这条铁路可以在大城市之间建立更好的交通,帮助整个国家的经济复苏。

  不知这么昂贵的高铁建成后,售票价格又会攀升到怎样的水准?

  其实你知道吗?在中国人生活中已经稀松平常的高铁交通,在国外、特别是美欧日等发达国家,对民众而言都是件“奢侈”的事儿……

  美国:比机票贵,只有东北地区才有“准高铁”

  提到美国的交通,人们的第一印象可能并不是火车。的确,美国被称为“汽车轮上的国家”,加上短途航空发达,铁路出行不是客运的首选。

  相对错综复杂的公路网,美国的铁路网略显稀疏,其中高速客运线路基本上只有东北地区的一段。可以说,美国的高速铁路并未得到成功的发展。

  [速度]提到美国铁路,不得不说的就是Amtrak。Amtrak是美国国家铁路客运公司(美铁)的商标。在美国看到的长途火车,基本上都是蓝车头的铁皮列车,外观就散发着年代的味道。

美国Amtrak火车美国Amtrak火车

  而说到高铁,则必须要谈谈Amtrak旗下的Acela。Acela快车是美洲最快的火车,时速达每小时240公里,运营区间在南至华盛顿,北达波士顿,途径包括巴尔的摩、费城、纽约等14个城市。其车速虽是北美最快,但只相当于中国动车组列车的水平,距离中国高铁每小时350公里的运营速度尚有相当差距。可以说,如果用中国标准衡量,这只是一种“准高铁”。

  Acela快车使用子弹头车头,车身也是能够承受强烈碰撞的不锈钢车体,其车身重量比法国高铁的车身要重许多,从而增加了防撞性能。美国能源部的最新数据显示,按每名乘客每英里数据计算,Amtrak火车的能源效率比汽车高30%,比国内航班高8%,相对之下是比较“绿色”的出行方式。

在美国波士顿市的一个火车站,乘客准备登上Acela列车。(新华社)在美国波士顿市的一个火车站,乘客准备登上Acela列车。(新华社)

  [价格]在价格上,美国高铁交通也比较贵。举个例子,从纽约到波士顿340公里的距离,高铁大约3.5个小时(停站较多),150美元左右(约合人民币1000元)。相比之下,同距离的航班甚至更廉价。

  不过Acela上的食品价格倒是与一般美国饭馆里的差不多。比如,一个汉堡大约六七美元。

Acela上的食品价目表Acela上的食品价目表

  [服务]相对于短途飞机,高铁的空间更大,车厢内有更稳定的WiFi和手机信号,有的车厢内还有卧铺。

  [成本]几十年来,美铁的运营一直被资金困难所困扰,而美国民众对于建设高铁也意见不一。而关于联邦政府是否应该拨款建设高铁,人们也并不能达成一致。

  虽说在全美范围内,高铁并不那么流行,但在人口密集的东北地区,还是会有许多人选择乘坐高铁在城市间出行。美国多样化的交通方式一直将人们的注意力从高铁上转移,但随着世界各地铁路出行的高速发展,美国人民也越来越意识到这种更加绿色环保的出行方式提供的可能。

  法国高铁:配套服务好,创新“疲软”

  法国高速列车(TGV)是日本新干线后,人类历史上第二个投入运营的高铁线路,推动了高铁的普及。

一辆由法国通往瑞士的TGV高速列车。(新华社)一辆由法国通往瑞士的TGV高速列车。(新华社)

  [速度]目前法国高铁列车可共线使用普通铁路,速度视路况而定:在普通铁路上,平均为100公里-150公里时速,如果是适用高铁的专有铁路,则时速可以达到350公里。

  [价格]一般来说,在法国坐1小时的高铁(200公里到300公里),成人的二等车厢票价约在35欧元左右(约合人民币272元)。如果不得不在短时间内乘车出行,就要尽量选择在非高峰时段搭乘火车,此时车票票价会比高峰时段车票实惠,高峰时段包括清晨、傍晚、假日前夕、周五全日以及周日下午。

在巴黎火车北站,乘客从大力士(Thalys)国际高速列车下车。Thalys是法国TGV的改进型列车。(郑斌/摄)在巴黎火车北站,乘客从大力士(Thalys)国际高速列车下车。Thalys是法国TGV的改进型列车。(郑斌/摄)

  在法国,高铁订票愈早,获得特价车票的机会越大,越是临近发车,车票越贵。如果买一年有效的优惠卡,如青年卡,就可以优惠不少。

  法国高铁餐车里的面条和饭可以加热,价格也略贵;零食与饮料的价格,也要比家乐福超市的贵1倍以上。

  [服务]与法国高铁相比,中国的车更新,更快。但法国高铁的配套服务不错,在很多高铁车站里可以租车,也可以异地还车。

  此外,高铁线路和其它交通枢纽的连接也做得比较好。如巴黎的戴高乐国际机场,有飞机起降的航站楼,也有联通法国南北的高铁线路的站台,还有穿越巴黎市区和巴黎地区的区间快线RER站台,以及机场大巴。多种交通方式给人们提供了多个选择。

  就锐参考记者乘坐法国高铁的经历上看,法国高铁噪音不大。列车车厢两头设有专门放大箱子的空间。乘客座位上方的储物空间也不小,也可以放一般的行李箱。

法国高铁内景图法国高铁内景图

  [成本]TGV高铁一直以“法兰西的骄傲”著称于世,不过目前似乎陷入了疲软状态,出口困难。因为法国高铁项目有很大的公营背景,价格高昂,在国际市场上没有优势,技术创新也陷入了困境。

  日本:强调舒适安全卖点,票价是中国四倍

  日本在重要干线道路上铺设的高速高架铁路,区别于以往线路“在来线”(意即“传统线”),称之为“新干线”。

  [外观]日本新干线车头外观和中国高铁很相似,外形线条流畅,有种“子弹头”的即视感。

2013年9月,一辆新干线列车行驶在日本东京的楼群之间。(新华社)2013年9月,一辆新干线列车行驶在日本东京的楼群之间。(新华社)

  [速度]传统线路高速行驶时,时速为130公里左右,新干线高速行驶时能达到300公里,两者均比中国高铁(高速行驶时350公里)要慢不少。

  [价格]举个例子,从东京到大阪的距离只有从北京到上海距离的将近一半(500公里),但车票价格为1.5万日元,折合成人民币约为1000元。单纯看公里数与票价关系,其价格大约是中国的4倍。

  日本高铁乘坐费用虽然相当高,但是在日本这样的高收入国家里,乘坐500公里的新干线支出1000元人民币,只相当于普通公司职员一天的收入,所以普通日本民众并没有因此感到昂贵。

  [服务]新干线应该是日本人能够乘坐的最为舒适、同时也是非常安全的交通工具,锐参考记者去年曾采访过新干线方面的日本专家,后者表示:“我们自1964年开业以来,从未发生过死亡事故。”五十多年时间里,在一个地震、火山、海啸等自然灾害特别频繁的国家,新干线鲜有事故发生,这确实值得赞赏。

在日本首都东京,乘客登上新干线列车。 (新华社)在日本首都东京,乘客登上新干线列车。 (新华社)

  以锐参考记者乘坐新干线时的一次经历为例,当时广播提示大约1分钟后地震波将传导至当地,于是列车虽然没有紧急刹车,但在1分钟内已经明显降低了速度。果真1分钟后,地震来了,车辆开始上下颠动起来。虽然震级不强,但可见新干线的地震紧急速报技术之准确。

  [成本]日本新干线价格贵也是有原因的。最近,日本国土交通省发表的报告说,建1公里的新干线需要付出162亿日元(约合人民币10亿元),这还只是轨道与列车的建造费用。

  ————————————-----------此处为分割线—————————————————

  与以上国家相比,中国高铁虽然是“后起之秀”,但实力斐然。

  目前,中国已经拥有世界上最大的高速铁路网络,和全球最完整的技术和产业配套体系;而成本大致为日本、法国等国家的三分之二,投资少,运营成本低,维护成本低。

  如今,随着“复兴号”的登场,试验时速可达400公里/小时,中国高铁又迎来了新的里程碑。

  在乘坐体验上,中国高铁也在不断进步。7月17日起,铁路部门在27个主要高铁客运站推出互联网订餐服务,让高铁上吃到可口的外卖成为可能。

  怪不得在社交媒体上,外国网友也对中国高铁赞不绝口:


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